Most of the snow has moved to Conn. and Mass. and most of our snow will end around lunch hour.

Snowburst

At 9:30 a snowburst began. These mini blizzards pile up snow quickly but do not last long.

So far, this storm is unimpressive but it will give us some snow today, with the bulk of the snow sliding off to the North of our location. Moose was right.

Evening update: Snow is headed our way Wednesday and it looks like we will have a little more than snow showers. I would guess an inch or two. More than that would be surprising. Plenty of cold winds blowing Wed. night. Bear in mind that higher elevations North and West could see the 2 to 4 inch range.

This is a clipper type storm which are best known for bringing us wind and cold and only once in a while a heavy snow. The heavy snow only develops when the storm hits the coast, draws in moisture and rapidly intensifies.This time the worst of the storm could hit points well east.

The storm for the 2nd and 3rd looks much less substantial but it is a little early to write that one off just now.

We remain in an active and moist pattern so more snow is almost certainly ahead at some point.

Moose Report

My dog Mr. Moose predicts only a chance of accumulating snow tomorrow. He did not stop to smell very often on his morning walk today. His pink nose is weather sensitive, making him a good short range weather forecaster. If he changes his mind, later today we will report it.

Bundle up for New Years Eve.

Expect a very cold outbreak after the first week in January.

Snow likely Friday into Saturday

New Years should be bringing some snow showers Wednesday and dry but cold New years Eve. and Day.

Our next snow of several inches is due in at the start of the weekend. Cold weather will follow. Next week will bring some rain or snow followed by very cold temps.

The latest computer model run is showing mostly snow now. I guess we will be going back and forth on the storm for Friday and Saturday.

No change in the forecast except that Friday and Saturday will probably see more rain than snow.

Back to Winter '09

The current mild weather will not last much longer and we may see snow around the 3rd of January. A definite downward trend in temperature will occur over the net 10 to 14 days. It is, after all , January that we are looking at.

Sunday: showers and very mild
Mon.,Tues fair and cooler
Wed. snow flurries
New years dry and cold
Friday, Saturday Snow and or wintry mix.

Shot in the dark

Shortly after New Years there are early indications of a significant snowfall. Otherwise another shot of rain on the weekend and some snow showers New Years Eve.

Looks like we will get some snow,sleet,freezing rain for a time very early tioay and then plain rain.

Happy Holidays

Some icing will take place tioight to points North and West..No significant snow until after New Years.

Wednesday. Rain
Christmas. Early showers then clearing.
Friday partly cloudy
Saturday. Showers

Cold then milder

Monday- Cold and windy
Tuesday- Not as cold with frozen precip/rain at night
Wednesday- any frioen precip will change to rain, milder
Christmas- milder with rain.

UPDATE 5:15pm

Colder air now means more snow and ice tonight and tomorrow. 2 to 6 inches accumulation.

Dreaming of a white weekend.

Saturday: A few snow or mixed showers during the day. Snow or mix developing after midnight.

Sunday: Snow, sleet, freezing rain may change to rain. Several inches of accumulation (1 to 4). Some risk of icing problems. Turning cold at night with a hard freeze.

Monday: Cold. It ain't melting..

Christmas Eve, Christmas day Snow or mix changing to rain. A rainy Christmas day.

Whether snow or ice it can be nice!

Saturday, Sunday 12/20,12/21 Snow after midnight Saturday then, Sunday snow,sleet,freezing rain,rain. Some accumulation likely of several inches or more. Risk of icing problems.

Monday - Cold. Anything left over from Sunday will freeze solid.

The ski areas up North will do well on the weekend storm.
.

At 3:20 pm We have sleet mixing in with snow and the forecasts were on target. About 4 inches accumulation so far.

At 9:30 am It was snowing aloft but not yet reaching the ground this morning.


The next 2 storms will be more rainy. Christmas appears to be going to wet rather than white.The next two weeks feature rain and or snow every couple of days. No rest for the weary. New Years is too shaky on the computer models too forecast.

Siberia update: - 74 below zero and snowing at Ojmjakon, Russia. It shows us that it is never too cold to snow!
What is it like at such extremely cold temperatures?

Two weather observers at the Snag airport in the Yukon of Canada experienced -81.4°F on February 3, 1947, and reported:

"We threw a dish of water high into the air, just to see what would happen. Before it hit the ground, it made a hissing noise, froze, and fell as tiny round pellets the size of wheat kernels. Spit also froze before hitting the ground. Ice became so hard the axe rebounded from it. At such temperatures, metal snapped like ice; wood became petrified; and rubber was just like cement. The dogs' leather harness couldn't bend or it would break...It was unique to see a vapor trail several yards long pursuing one as he moved about outside. Becoming lost was of no concern. As an observer walked along the runway each breath remained as a tiny motionless mist behind him at head level. These patches of human breath fog remained in the still air for three or four minutes before fading away. One observer even found such a trail still marking his path when he returned along the same path 15 minutes later".

From Dr. Jeff Masters blog on the Weather Underground http://www.wunderground.com

HEAVY SNOW

I took my dog for a walk and he is predicting snow. I can tell by the number of times he stopped to smell.

Heavy snow for tomorrow is all but guaranteed. Temperatures will determine exactly how much. It should be snowing before dawn.5 to 8 inches sounds like a good bet. Ice and rain may mix in.

The next 2 storms now look like more rain may mix in, Sunday and next week.Christmas Eve is now a mix or rain.

New Years is looking like rain or snow on the 31st and the 1st.


Siberia report: At Ojmjakon Airport it is minus 71 degrees !

There's no business like snow business!

Friday 12/19 Snow and wintry mix, several inches likely,6 to 12 possible. Weather grows worse as the day progresses.

Sunday 12/21 Snow and wintry mix, light accumulation.

12/24 & 12/25 Snow or mix possible

Check your snowblower!

REVISED

This Friday we can expect weather similar to our current weather but,WITH MORE ACCUMULATION, and it is looking like an accumulating snow of several inches, for Northeast NJ.. Snow is also likely Sunday into Monday and it will be followed by cold weather so, do not expect melting like today.

Places North and West may get 6 to 12 inches, on Friday. Not bad Friday morning, and from there it goes to snow and ice quickly..

Christmas eve. is still looking snowy but we have plenty of time for things to change. For the next 10 days there will be plenty of gray weather and sometimes white as well.

Fri. 12/19 mixed wintry precip.

Sun. 12/ 21 snow or mixed precip.

12/24, 12/25 snow or wintry mix. We have a shot at a white Christmas!

At this early point New Years could present a snowfall.

Sleet

Sleet has mixed in already this morning,

OJMJAKON, RUSSIA currently - 55 and smoke. It finally warmed up over there.(note the minus sign)

AARDVARK SAYS: this weather forecast is really tough and can change on a dime. The bulk of the cold air is hanging over the Western U.S. and Canada and means that a classic heavy snow in NJ is not likely just yet.

4 PM MON. 12/15

While no blockbuster snowfall appears ahead here is the latest on any snow or ice for NEW JERSEY( Northeast) :

Tuesday night: mixture snow, sleet rain with some accumulation by Wed. morning. Not much but then it does not take much to cause travel problems. Especially on the first go around.

Weekend on Sunday more of the same

Christmas Eve.: again an icy mix with some accumulation. Looks a little heavier right now. Also allow + or - one day.

We will be riding the rain/snow line through the forecast period so keep tuned in for sudden changes. Buy your ice melter now.

RAIN, rain go away

Not much sun nor snow this week although Tues. night could get frosty. Next week is not not very promising so far.

Changeover

At sunset the temperature has dropped one degree and it seems likely that we will get a coating of snow by tomorrow morning. Maybe some icy spots in the hills.

No blizzards on the horizon just yet ,but a little snow by Christmas could occur.

Wed. 12.10

Plenty of rain headed our way Thursday and we may have to wait until Friday for any snow. So the GFS model was about right a week ago showing stormy weather at this tine.

The next chances for snow appear on 12/18 and 12/23. It will be fun to watch.

Did you know? The current temperature in Ojmjakon, Russia is - 68 F. That is minus 68!

Tuesday outlook

Not looking for snow today since it warmed up so fast. Here comes the rain.

The forecast models have been wobbly and changeable. Best bet for snow is Thurs. night / Friday. It still looks like only a few inches at most and it won't be all snow. So things are still almost as uncertain as they were days ago.

Sunday eve. outlook, snow sandwich

This week will feature a snow sandwich. Monday will be a dry day, Tues. the weather will go downhill with some snow at night, then rain Wednesday. Probably not much accumulation before the changeover.

After that, Thursday 11th. could turn snowy. The possible snow showed up on yesterdays' computer model. It is there again today, only more so. It will be fun to watch and certainly not a sure thing. If we do get snow Thursday, it should be only a couple of inches, at most. Friday is looking cold. A really nice snow appears on the 23rd., but that is much too far ahead to think about, .Santa could be pleased.

Originally, this week was to have one big storm on about the 10th, but it now looks like two smaller storms instead.

Don't look for a blizzard this week..

The Weather Balloon blog by Aardvark applies to northteast New Jersey.

Computer models continue to fluctuate for 12/10 and beyond. Looks like a little snow 12/6 overnight and early 12/7.
Still see a vigorous storm next week but any significant snow is still a long shot for now.

Winter outlook , Thurs. eve.

Any long range forecast needs a 3 day window. A stormy 10th could occur from the 9th to the 11th for example.