Computer models wobble on forecast....WAIT !

On Wednesday and Thursday a huge storm was a sure thing, but now, the models have changed the forecast. We must wait a day or two to see if they shift yet again. In the meantime, snow seems more likely Tuesday if anything, although maybe less of it. When the jet stream disturbance that will bring us our weather moves over Canada, there will be better data available for the models to work with. Patience is a virtue.

I have not given up on a big storm but it seems less likely than a day or two ago.


Moose to the rescue

I will have to employ Moose the weather dog on Monday and Tuesday to verify the weather forecasts. The nose knows.

Best guess so far, 3 to 7 inches.

MAJOR NOREASTER DUE EARLY NEXT WEEK!!!

I was away in VT enjoying the Wednesday blizzard there and now here comes another one! Will it be rain or snow in NJ? It is hard to say just yet. Right in our area we will probably get a mix but if it is all snow, this will be a memorable storm. Sussex county could see all snow and the shore areas all rain. We will really be walking the tightrope on this one. This is big!

Models bounce, forecast the same

No change in the outlook for the coming week so we will go with cold and dry until Wednesday to Friday with a good chance of snow or mixed precip.at that time.

Cold returns and later next week it snows.

We can expect temperatures to head down on Saturday and stay down for a couple of days. The prospects for snow look pretty good from about Wednesday on.

Weekend and Beyond

Friday will be the mildest day we have had recently, a good time for a car wash.

We will be back in the cold air this weekend with a few flurries. Next week will start dry and around the Wed.-Fri. time period a snow or mix will move in.

One of My Favorite Snowstorms

Valentines Day in 2007 in Vermont. In the space of almost exactly 24 hours, the Montpelier area received 30 inches of snow! Temperatures hovered between zero and 10 degrees with strong winds,blowing and drifting snow. A true blizzard by any measure. Even the locals had trouble with that one.

Meanwhile, back in NJ, there was only a few inches of snow, ice and rain. People here heard almost nothing about the blizzard just to our North.

JUNKY COMPUTER MODELS GIVE MIXED UP FORECAST, Wednesday

First, tomorrow will turn molder and Friday even more so. The weekend will go back to cold and partly cloudy with a few snow showers.

Next week is in doubt but a good amount of moisture could bring snow,ice or rain at some point. I have given up on the timing. Looks like I will have to put Moose back to work.

SIBERIA UPDATE

It is minus 58 and snowing. But that is not bad compared to the minus 76 in December.

MOOSE REPORT

Moose predicts snow but, no one else does. Go figure.

Good news, maybe, if you like snow

Just like the pre-inaugural snowstorm that never was, next week is looking snowy too. At least there is some impressive moisture in the map.

This week is cold until a short mild spell late in the week. The weekend is cold and fair. Early next week could turn snowy but for us, it may be a one inch blizzard, again.

Expect snow Sunday evening

The local radar is filling in with echoes and we can expect more than flurries. A light but steady snow is falling at 5 pm

This could bring some minor accumulation if it continues..

Monday will bring on and off periods of snow similar to todays weather.

Another one slips out to sea.

Although we are seeing some snow today and tonight the snowstorm is, once again, going to miss us.We came close but no cigar. President Obama will have to make do with a coating of snow, if that.

The Boston area got 7 inches of snow, not us.

Storm seen nine days ago may be coming.

Sunday into Monday may be our first big snow. We have been disappointed before this season but my hopes are up for a snowfall over 4 inches. It is still too early to count on it yet. See the post dated Jan. 7 for the Pre-Inauguration snow.

If it develops the name will be BAMBI.

Colder and Colder

Colder on Wed., Light snow and Colder Thursday. Arctic cold Thurs night and Friday. Thursday's snow, anywhere from a coating to an inch or 2.

Some areas could see 3 to 5 inches of very light , fluffy snow. Use your leaf blower to move it.

Frigid cold at the end of the week.

Expect a big drop in temperature starting Wednesday. Tuesday could bring us another 2 inch snowfall with some rain/ice mixed in again. Models continue to snow a possible snowfall on Inauguration Day something this blog pointed out last week. It is still far off so much could change.

From Wednesday on snow showers could occur from time to time.

Saturday Storm

With about 1 inch already it looks like we are good for 2 to 5 inches depending on where you are.

Winter Storm Aardvark, due Saturday

Now I am convinced about getting snow Saturday. This storm's name is Aardvark and should bring 3 to 6 inches of mostly snow The highlands areas can add on 2 more inches..

Other names for 2009
Aardvark
Bambi
Clouseau
Dr. Zhivago

Moose Report
Fair weather today and cold.
On his evening walk, Moose showed no snow indications at first, then, later on he did. Obviously this means tomorrow will see no snow early but later it will be snowing.

Only flurries today

Today and tonight will see flurries and cold breezy conditions. Tomorrow partly sunny. Saturday accumulating snow of several inches.

The computer models still do not agree on Saturday so, that means the forecast could change.

Snow possible Sat. Think Snow!!!

As of 9 pm it now looks like there is at least partial agreement that we will see mostly snow on Sat. I would guess several inches accumulation. The timing of the snow is in doubt. The amount is greater in a modest way. Does 3 or 4 inches of snow strike terror into you?

I-80 has been the rain/snow dividing line for quite some time now and will most likely continue. Give or take 25 miles. What is 25 miles among friends?

Such a scenario has appeared before, in the last several weeks, only to have mush, instead of all snow. We really need a big pattern change for a big snow and that does not seem likely, soon enough, for Saturday to turn into a biggie.

In the Wayne area, untreated pavement held ice cover all through the day Wednesday, despite above freezing temps. and hours of plain rain. Only a short distance away most of the ice melted.

A sharp cold snap is likely next week. After Inauguration Day, a mild spell is due. Just before the Inauguration a snowstorm could occur but only if You Think Snow!

WEATHER SPEAK
Here are some of the better known computer models:
GFS global forecast system
ECMWF european center for medium range weather forecasts
ETA model developed for east coast storms
NGM nested grid model
NAM don't know
AVN aviation
RUC rapid update cycle

The information above is probably correct but do not count on it.


MOOSE REPORT

He doesn't forecast anything more than one day ahead. Smart dog!

Saturday snow?

One computer model is showing a snowfall for Saturday. Don't cancel plans unless some of the other models agree with the GFS forecast later Wed. night. We are not looking at a blizzard.

Inauguration Day Snowstorm?

Can it be? January 20 may bring our first big snow but it is only a blob on a computer map now and nearly 2 weeks away. I hope it is real.

Otherwise expect more of the weather we have been having since early December. Plenty of gray days, some snow , ice, rain every couple of days.

6:00 pm--- The system now bearing down on us is not behaving as forecast, so we will need to watch it hour by hour,

A high pressure ridge is building in the western states and this will change our weather eventually. This could bring us colder weather depending on exactly how the ridge positions itself.

Winter buffet

Tomorrow, Tuesday will bring light snow late in the day then a wintry mix at night. A good amount of ice may occur. Mostly, 1 or 2 inches will accumulate, but the higher elevations could reach 4 inches.

Wednesday should bring plain rain as the morning wears on.

The weekend will see some snow Saturday and next week should turn quite cold.

The 3rd week in January should see a thaw.

Weather forecast

Monday , a few early showers then cool,partly cloudy
Tuesday, increasing clouds some snow or ice late 1-2 inches accum.
Wednesday, snow or ice changes to rain

The nose knows

By all the smelling he was doing on his morning walk,my dog predicts snow.