7 pm update

The NAM now shows snow in much the same fashion as the GFS model,so snow seems more likely but, as stated earlier, the main body of the storm will hit Long Island and Mass.

If the models hold together tonight and certainly by noon tomorrow, we should have a clear picture of how much snow we will get. As an unqualified blogger, I am beginning to get excited about this storm. But, I am holding back for 12 more hours. In the meantime, keep those snow candles burning.

SNOW? Weather with many doubts this weekend.

Winter storm watch up and I will believe it when I see it.

Ordinarily, I would be jumping for joy about an impending snowstorm but the pattern will probably hold, as it has, all winter. An inch or so of snow Saturday into Sunday. Another 1 to 3 inches for Sunday night into Monday. Could we get more? Maybe, if, etc.

In the end, we will probably miss the brunt of the Monday storm. We can count on cold weather Monday night.

Wintry weather to return this weekend.

There may be a brief rain or snow shower this morning, followed by partly cloudy and mild conditions. Friday will have rain showers. Expect the rain later Friday.

The weekend will turn colder again with rain and then snow. It seems more likely now than it did only yesterday. . The stormy weather may linger into early Monday. Stay tuned, since past storms this winter have tended to miss the Bergen , Passaic area. If it does snow, Saturday night seems the to be the time for the transition from rain to snow.

THURSDAY UPDATE

The models continue to bounce around and disagree so, we will leave the forecast as above.

Weather turns milder

Wednesday will be milder followed by a chance of some showers or an icy mix early Thursday. Friday will have rain showers.

If you believe in the tooth fairy, we could get some snow late this weekend.

Cold weather with a little snow forecast

Windy and cold conditions, perhaps some snow flurries and Saturday night there is a good chance of some light snow. Only a coating to an inch seems likely.

Rainy forecast

The weather will go downhill later today with a rain/snow mix going over quickly, to all rain .All of Bergen,Passaic and Morris will see rain overnight.

SNOWY WEATHER, BRIEFLY, WEDNESDAY.

CLOUDY WEATHER WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON but it mixes with and changes to rain by nightfall. Only the Highlands should see any significant accumulation., around 1 inch

The weekend could bring snowy/rainy weather anytime from Saturday night into Monday. It is hard to say, what with the erratic forecasts from the computer models this season.

Mostly wet weather WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

Cold and dry today and tomorrow then some snow moves in Wednesday but mixes with and changes to rain at night. The Highlands could have an icy mix for a longer time Wed. night.

The weekend has a good chance for snow, not rain, from late Sat. into Sunday.

Siberia update

Currently 68 below zero with snow

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Cold and dry weather until Wednesday

Wednesday may bring afternoon snow, for a brief time, but it will go over to rain until ending Thursday.

Up North, there will be a substantial snow for the skiers.

Maine sets all time low temperature record.

On January 16, 2009, Maine set an all time low temperature of 50 below zero. The record was set at a remote station in Big Black River Maine. The all time record for the original 48 states was set at Rogers Pass, MT at 70 below zero, in 1954.

Saturday snowy weather will more likely stay to our south

There will be fairly tranquil and seasonably cold weather until next Wednesday or Thursday when snow or rain may develop.

Windy Thursday maybe a little snow Sat.

A strong squall line will pass through this evening followed by cooler temps. Tomorrow will be windy and cooler by later in the afternoon. Saturday could bring a little snow but the snow will more likely stay to our south as expected earlier.

Spring weather preview followed by winter reprise

We could see temperatures go over 60 Wednesday but then winter will creep back in. There will be a series of storms moving through and one next week could bring us a snow/rain mix. We will have a near miss on some light snow Saturday. Chances seem good for at least one or two snowfalls before the month ends. Spring is to be on hold for a while longer.

There is a lot of buzz about a wintry couple of weeks.

Siberian antifreeze

Last time I looked , it was minus 58 below zero in Siberia. How do they cope you may ask? They do boil water in the kitchen but that tends to build up ice on the inside walls several inches thick. They then must resort to soup, coffee, tea, and that old standby vodka.

They will be coping with below zero readings well into March and even beyond that, some years. The coldest temperature that I ever encountered was minus 30 in Vermont and that was bad enough. Half of the cars don't start at that temperature so, many of the locals leave their car running all night.

On that weekend old Mr. Potvin, a French Canadian, complained that they do not get winters like they used to. " we used to have snowbanks along the roads 5 or 6 feet high and you could not even see the cars drive by on the road!"

And he was right, the winters in the 1950's and 60's were much more harsh than in recent years.

The all tome record low for Siberia is minus 90 degrees. Alaska could only manage minus 80. The all time low for New Jersey was minus 34 set in Riverdale, on Jan. 5, 1904.

Rain followed by some close calls

Going by the GFS, we will get some rain late on Wednesday into Thursday. Although the temperature will turn colder afterward, we will narrowly miss a couple of snowfalls.

Feb 15th could bring snow but, Southern NJ has a better shot at snow than we will. Keep in mind that the forecast models have been inaccurate this season.

No big weather stories for now.

After a mild weekend it will cool down then maybe some rain about Thursday. No big developments yet and the models have been unreliable most of the winter anyway , so why look ahead more than 5 days?

Frigid then mild, stormy end of next week

The frigid weather will last another day then noticeably milder weather starts moving in Friday afternoon. We will have good melting this weekend. It is looking stormy at the end of next week with a variety of precipitation.

A few days after that, there is even a chance of a snowfall.

Tonight,snow will probably intensify.
A disturbance moved across Indianapolis this morning dumping several inches of snow in a short time. This area of weather is now moving across Ohio and if it holds together, it may add to our snow totals tonight.

Forecasters do expect this upper level shortwave to intensify the snow over Northern NJ, this evening..

Did you notice the hint of spring Sunday?

Tuesday

! to 3 inches looks like what we will get in our area. Driving conditions will go downhill later this afternoon and evening. This weekend looks mild and the melting begins.

Long range

Storminess around Feb. 12th to 15th.

No biggie, not even a medium

The pattern continues, just a little snow on the way again tomorrow, anywhere from a coating to an inch or two.There is only a slim hope of anything more than that. This storm looked great 5 days ago.

The worst snow conditions are likely for the Tues. evening commute.

Moose Report

Moose predicts some snow?rain but not big time. If he is wrong please don't tell him.

Light a snow candle

It does look like the storm center will stay far enough out over the ocean to keep the heavy snow away from us. But, that is not certain, so light a snow candle and maybe a secondary center will form and change all that.

Uncertainty continues

No change in my best guess forecast below, we may not know for sure, until Monday evening, as to what the snow totals will be. That said, I do not see anything dramatic developing , so far. This explains why the models differ so much, there is no grand storm forming, just some smaller ones that do not give the models much to work with.

New York area Snow Window approaches.

The infamous New York area Snow Window runs from Groundhog day to Washington's Birthday. Right on schedule, a snowstorm approaches our area, so do not think that this thing will blow out to sea. There are 4 possible scenarios for the Tuesday to Wednesday time period according to the various computer models. Only until the storm actually forms and a possible secondary storm forms will the forecasters be able to pin down snow totals.

Until then a 3 to 7 inch total is my best guess. Could it be a foot? Yes. Could it be 1 inch? Yes.

Snow will begin late Monday or very early Tuesday. Rain is likely at the early stages. All snow Tuesday.

MOOSE REPORT

My dog Moose was smelling up a storm today. Lookout!