Monday, December 19, 2011

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Blizzard Hits the Plains. Possible Snowstorm for Christmas Eve

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Blizzard Hits the Plains. Possible Snowstorm for Christmas Eve

Emphasize the word POSSIBLE.  Dreaming of a White Christmas in the New York/New jersey metro area is possible, we have a chance at it .
MERRY CHRISTMAS
Some rain Tues. and Wed.
Some rain/snow Christmas Eve. Christmas Day.  Snow most likely well inland.  Keep the dream alive. 
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Sunday, December 18, 2011

Euro Model Shows snow just after Christmas.

At ten days away it is too early to get the plows ready but it is something to watch for.  I remain unconvinced that there will be a cold snowy, period next week.  There are some signs of it but not a clear signal, so far, but that could change fairly soon.  But at least there is a chance for it, unlike the last several weeks.  If any snow occurs later this week it should be light and well inland, with a good bit of rain as well.  So we could squeak in a semi-white Christmas over inland NJ.

Long Range Video Discussion for December 18, 2011

Long Range Video Discussion for December 18, 2011

NEW JERSEY METEOROLOGIST GIVES HIS VIEW ON AN UPCOMING SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN PRODUCING COLD, SNOWY WEATHER. ( CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE.)

Friday, December 9, 2011

Eastern USA is heading for a mild winter.

Although it will be stormy, we will likely have more rain than snow.  Only those areas far to the north and well inland stand a chance for substantial snows this winter.

But, this does not mean that we won't get cold spells along with snow.  It is just that rain will be predominating for most of this winter.

A cold Pacific Ocean, warm Indian Ocean and cold waters near Greenland will tend to steer the cold air toward the Western states and the Great Lakes.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Hold the phone! Snow is possible mid-week! Areas inland of New York City could see accumulations of snow Wednesday night. According to latest weather forecast models for the Metro area.

Originally it looked like almost all rain, followed by snow showers, then all rain and now back to snow.

I still favor rain at first, then changing to snow.  Since this is such a close call I would not trust any forecast until the Tuesday morning weather forecasts are published.

Certainly we will have colder weather at the end of this week, and it might even snow then too.  So, heads up.

One computer model predicts 9" of snow above West Point, NY.  Just to give you an idea.  The coast would see little or no snow.  You need to be inland with elevation on this one. A process of dynamic cooling would produce the snow IF, we get it.  It would be similar to the October 27th storm that we had then.  The storm generates it's own cold air.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Storm moving through this week but mostly rain is what we can expect, perhaps ending as snow showers.

There has been some talk of snow this week but if it occurs it will be well west of the NY Metro, NJ area.  Intriguingly, the NAO is showing a downward trend, toward negative territory, but it is not sharp enough to get me worried/excited that it will snow.  We will have to wait some more for a snowstorm.  It will be noticeably colder later this week, but not frigid.



A moderate winter still looks most likely this year and not another blockbuster snow season.  We are set up with ocean temps. around the globe that do not favor a cold, snowy winter on the Eastern Seaboard. But sudden shifts have changed things quickly in other years, and we can't rule that possibility out, just yet.