Record 13 foot storm surge at the Battery, New York City.

U of Wisconsin satellite image

Major flood now in progress at Tuckerton, NJ

Over 8 feet above MLW at Little Egg inlet.
Ocean City flooded from sea to the bay.
LBI much flooding
Atlantic City serious flooding. morning 10/29

Coastal Flood Estimates as of 7:45 pm. Revised upward.

... NY Harbor water levels for Monday evening...

Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ..
Location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ..

The Battery NYC... ..813 PM... ... ... 11.7... ... ... ... .Major... .
Bergen Point NY... ..814 PM... ... ... 12.3... ... ... ... .Major... .

... Western l.I. Sound water levels for Monday night...

Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ..
Location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ..

Kings Point NY... ... 1227 am... ... ..16.6... ... ... ... .Major... .
Lattingtown NY... ... 1205 am... ... ..16.7... ... ... ... .Major... .
Stamford CT... ... ... 1201 am... ... ..16.4... ... ... ... .Major... .
Bridgeport CT... ... .1158 PM... ... ..15.9... ... ... ... .Major... .
New Haven CT... ... ..1157 PM... ... ..15.3... ... ... ... .Major... .

Jersey Central Power and Light, power outages

http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/nj.html

PSE&G Power Outages on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/psegdelivers

http://twitter.com/psegdelivers

click on orange wording

National Weather Service , Mt. Holly, NJ Storm Sandy.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
  MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES. MODERATE COASTAL
  FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE AND WIDESPREAD
  MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

* HIGH SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET DRIVEN BY FREQUENT 50 TO 60 MPH WIND
  GUSTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOODING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
  MONDAY EVENING.

* A 4 TO 8 FEET STORM SURGE COINCIDING WITH THE MONDAY EVENING
  HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A RECORD FLOOD AS MEASURED AT
  SANDY HOOK...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN EVER RECORDED
  SINCE STORM TIDE RECORDS BEGAN AROUND THE 1940S.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY)... THIS EVENINGS
  HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 741 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5
  TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
  TIDE OCCURS AT 801 AM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 9.0 TO
  9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH
  TIDE OCCURS AT 822 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF BETWEEN
  10.5 AND 12.0 FEET...THIS LATTER PROJECTION SPECIFIC WITH THE
  PATH OF SANDY CROSSING THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.

Latest Flood estimate, Storm Surge at the Battery, New York, NY.

One model shows an 11 foot total surge.  The other model is about 8 inches less.  There is a 10% chance these figures will be exceeded.  The first high tide is Monday morning, the second and larger tide is Monday evening.  These heights would exceed the sea wall in the area of lower Manhattan.  Subways will flood unless they are successfully sand bagged.

Some minor flooding could occur Sunday evening.  The worst storm surge and winds will occur Monday night.

To view the Stevens Tech. report click the link colored in orange.

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017r

From Weatherunderground:

Last night's 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 - 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy's storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina's, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

Flood Times Estimate for The Battery , New York City

Minor to moderate flooding at 9 am, 10/29, Monday.

Moderate flooding at 11pm, 10/29, Monday.

Winds 30 to 50 mph,  max gusts to 70 mph.  ( NWS estimate )

 http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017   (click on orange words, to view)

Looks like 6 to 12" higher than Irene.

Sandy may bring in water a foot higher than last years storm.  It could flood part of the NYC subway system.

Updates: Sandy's Catastrophic Impacts on the Northeast

Updates: Sandy's Catastrophic Impacts on the Northeast

Very Dangerous Sandy now 54 hours from Landfall.

Showing an intensity similar to the 1993 Superstorm.

NWS BRIEFING ON SANDY: no changes to previous brief, executive summary below this post.

Changes from previous briefing
•    No significant changes from previous briefing package.
•    Confidence continues to increase that our region will see very severe impacts from this storm.

Issued Friday, Oct. 26, 2012

Applies to New Jersey and Pennsylvania from Mount Holly Office, National Weather Service.

High winds and heavy rain are expected on Monday and Tuesday, but the track and intensity of Sandy are still in doubt. It has shifted more to the NJ area this afternoon.

AccuWeather.com Election Coverage: Sandy May Pose Threat to East Coast Voters

AccuWeather.com Election Coverage: Sandy May Pose Threat to East Coast Voters

click on the orange words to read and view video.

LATEST from NOAA is that Northern NJ will be in the 6 to 8 inch rainfall zone!

Euro for Fri. am brings Sandy into Chesapeake Bay area

Plenty of wind but less rain.  Waves and tides in Delaware Bay, Cape May, will be very great.  In north Jersey the amount of rain should be less but the winds will be strong especially close to the ocean.  Tides and waves will be quite high.

Looks like Sandy will visit: Ocean City, MD , Pittsburgh, PA, Buffalo, NY, Montreal , Canada.

An old rule states that you do not know what these storms will do until you get the storm past Cape Hatteras.

It seems more likely than ever that the Jersey Shore is going to get the full force of the storm,  whatever that proves out to be.  But it will not be the kind of storm that destroys bridges, highways and entire buildings.  Flooding is the main concern and all those beach homes along the Jersey Shore.

The best guess on Sandy is from the Euro, which has been bringing the storm into around Delaware for about 3 days , now tracks Sandy in on Monday afternoon. The GFS on the other hand, showed Maine yesterday and NYC area today. It still seems that the area from Seaside Hts. , NJ to Ocean City , MD is the area where it will land. The storm is growing large so even if you are far from the storm center you still get wind and rain. We can be sure that we still do not have a good focus on Sandy, yet.

THIS IS NOT ANOTHER IRENE!

Here is what happened overnight and this morning with Sandy.  It was approaching Jamaica, it was expected to not yet be a hurricane or a minimal storm.  It hit Jamaica with 90 mph winds.

Sandy was supposed to weaken while crossing Jamaica, but it did not.  Next it would cross Cuba as a weak hurricane and be weakened before it got to the Bahamas.  It did not.

Sandy weakened briefly but began to rebuild as soon as it hit the water on the other side of Cuba.  Very impressive.

Sandy is now at Cat 2 hurricane, a strong one.  Most thought it would only be a TS by now.  Sandy has been full of surprises.

I notice that Nick Gregory highlighted the fact that the angle of attack of the storm will serve to push more tidewater into the Jersey Shore and NY Harbor.

NWS, Mt. Holly Briefig issued Thursday 10/25/12 :

Current status of Hurricane Sandy
•    Sandy is currently a Category II hurricane.
•    Its forecast track now poses a direct threat to our region.
•    It is forecast to still have sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts as it approaches our region.
•    This is a very dangerous scenario.

Mt. Holly, NWS, executive summary Thursday 10/25/12

Executive Summary
• Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy. This storm, if it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region:
• Strong damaging wind gusts • Extremely heavy rainfall • Major flooding along streams and rivers • Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29)
• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted.    This far out in time, there is still some uncertainty with the storm track. However, the likelihood of the storm affecting our region has once again increased over the past 24 hours.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Friday, October 26th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.

Mt. Holly, New briefing. Oct. 25, 2012 National Weather Service office.

Changes from previous briefing
•    The likelihood of the storm affecting our region has once again increased over the past 24 hours.
•    The potential for the storm to still retain tropical characteristics (e.g., extremely heavy rainfall rates, a core of very strong winds) when it reaches our region has increased over the past 24 hours.

Link to see list of hurricane supplies:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111057031/Hurricane-1

click on the orange.

NHC to New Jersey: Look out Jersey Shore!

Thanks to TRI-State Weather on Facebook for the image from the National Hurricane Center.

Weather Buffs astounded by Hurricane Sandy

Sandy is stronger than forecast despite traveling over high terrain in eastern Cuba.  The models continue to show a storm of strong intensity making landfall in the Northeast US.  It is obviously a dangerous storm and will have a great impact from Sunday to Tuesday, next week.

Western PA may see 3 to 4 feet of snow. High winds on the COAST can be expected all the way to Montauk, Long Island.

It will take another day of data to sort out the exact impact that it will have.

The latest bulls eye is Delaware and Delaware Bay, Southeast New Jersey.

Mount Holly, NJ Weather Briefing Statment, official NWS

Executive Summary
• Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy. This storm, if it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region:
• Strong damaging wind gusts • Extremely heavy rainfall • Major flooding along streams and rivers • Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29)
• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted. out in time, there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track. However, the likelihood of the storm affecting our region has increased over the past 24 hours. • Next briefing package will be issued on Thursday, October 25th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.

This is the official statement above, from Mount Holly, NJ  NWS

Dr. No speaks: Sandy will hit NJ directly!

The best computer model we have is the Euro.  Its' nickname is Dr. No.

It predicts landfall in New Jersey and moves to Eastern Pennsylvania afterward.

Undoubtedly this can change before next Monday.  7 am Monday, east of Virginia Beach,  then 7am Tuesday, Eastern PA.

Landfall estimate, preliminary:

Cape May County, NJ, noon, Monday.  

This is not official, only my best guess.  It can and will change.

Ground zero storm hits.

Here is a list of the landfall targets according to the many models: Delaware, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Maine.  Take your pick.

I am waiting for the word from Dr. No, the best computer model , which is the EURO.

Tropical storm could target N.J. - New York News | NYC Breaking News

Tropical storm could target N.J. - New York News | NYC Breaking News

Click on the orange words above to read the full report.

Models showing a major storm starting late Sunday.

The exact path and effects are not certain for at least another 24 hours.  Coastal residents in the NYC Metro area need to be watchful. Wind,wave and tides will cause significant disruptions. Inland, the problem will be heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

The map above is not a forecast.  If this one model were to verify next week, it would put much of Cape May County underwater.  No kidding. 72 knot winds, central pressure 27.4 inches mercury.  Incredible.  All of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York will be affected.

Showers Eastbound Today; Sandy a Wildcard - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com

Showers Eastbound Today; Sandy a Wildcard - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com

Now here is a good blog.

Let us wait until Thursday before we all run out for buying stuff.

If, on this Thursday afternoon,  the maps still show a big storm,  for next Tuesday morning, then I would go to the stores to stock up.  Since the storm is moving rather slowly , I would not be willing to compare it to the famous 1938 hurricane.  I expect a nasty storm with 3 to 6 inches of rain and power outages.  Probably not a state of emergency situation.  As I said , if the storm goes to the extreme, we will only get about a 1 day warning.

I do not see this as a hurricane.  It should be a strong Nor'easter, which is enough trouble for anyone, especially with a full moon on the 29th.

Clearly this storm affects the immediate coast.  Do not expect 60 mph winds if you are even a short distance inland.  It is an ocean storm.

DT at Wxrisk.com and on Facebook sees the tri-state area being hit with the worst storm since 1938.  Bad news if it plays out this way.  I do not see this as anything like the 1938 storm.

And far inland there will be snow as well!  Western NY and PA border area, yes that far in.

For once, I hope this is wrong.  It is going to be very unpleasant, but not a disaster.

I am waiting for the afternoon Euro model to roll in.  About 3pm.

2:34 pm  Euro brings in very strong storm this time, close to our coast.

2:38 pm  Euro brings storm to Long Island then right over NYC.

So the Euro is insisting on a very strong storm impacting the Tri State area and New England as well.

NWS, Mount Holly, New Jersey, weather service office, weather briefing statement.

Things to focus on about this storm
•    A very large region will be affected by very strong winds.
•    Reflecting its tropical beginnings, very heavy rainfall will occur with the storm.
• The storm will be slow moving. This worsens the impact for coastal flooding as it will affect multiple high tide cycles. This worsens the potential for heavy rainfall inland and increases the risk of major river flooding.
•    The area affected will be determined by the track of the storm. There is still considerable uncertainty about the track of the storm, but our region is clearly at risk.Executive Summary
• Potential for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Tropical Storm Sandy.    This storm system will bring multiple potential threats to the region.
• Strong damaging wind gusts, extremely heavy rainfall, major inland flooding and major coastal flooding are all possible with the storm. • The track of the storm will determine the area which is impacted; there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track this far in advance of the event.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Wednesday, October 24th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi

******************************

My own forecast based on weather history is as follows. We have a negative NAO, which historically frequently brings in a coastal storm. This set up produces a blocking high pressure system to our north. As the storm comes up from the south it can stall south of Long Island and then may move in a circular pattern for a time. The storm wants to move out to sea as storms normally do, but because of the blocking, and a negatively tilted trough trying to capture it, , the cyclone gets stuck. The storm intensifies but eventually, slowly moves out. We get a long duration Nor'easter. Plenty of wind rain and if cold enough, snow. Coastal areas get battered by wind and tides. So far, that looks to me to be the most likely outcome. The storm will coincide with lunar high tides, making coastal flooding worse. So far , a strong storm, not an extreme one, appears to be most likely btween Sunday and Tuesday. If the storm goes to extreme expect only one days' warning, if that happens. A windy rainy mess begins on this weekend , as I see it.

On the other hand, look at this forecast for the Sunday afternoon football games. >

I would cancel any cruise ship plans anywhere on the East Coast this weekend!  If this verifies.  For such a storm to occur, according to Steve D. at NY,NJ,PA Weather.com, it must phase perfectly Saturday night.  Only a 6 hour change will be the difference for such an extreme storm.

Tropical Storm Sandy: East Coast Nightmare or Miss

Tropical Storm Sandy: East Coast Nightmare or Miss


Would you believe 4 feet of snow in State College, PA?  Nah!  Never!

Seriously the Euro shows a weird storm movement and it is hard to believe.  If it does verify it would have a huge impact on coastal areas.  We can only watch the models day by day.  It is impossible to make a forecast on something so unusual.  It is becoming more likely though that Sunday to Tuesday next week will be rainy and windy.  But will it be extraordinary as the Euro portrays?  Nobody knows.

The storm track is from south of Long Island to the WEST toward Lake Erie.  Yes, backwards!!!!  So, nobody wants to accept it as the actual path it will take.

 (click on the orange words to go directly to Accuweather.  The black words are my own. )

EXTRA! The afternoon Euro run came in minutes ago, and it has a huge storm taking a bead on the Boston area. NJ Coast would still be impacted but not as bad. This will keep changing back and forth, up and down for a couple of more days.

At this early time in watching the storm, all we can say is that anywhere from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod could be the location for the storm to hit land.  Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New york and New England will have to watch this one.  Too early to call now.

DID YOU KNOW?

Back when Long Island was the home to cow pastures, farmhouses and trees, a hurricane struck the area where JFK airport now stands, and brought in a 30 foot high wall of water from the storm surge.

The weather event of the year may be here by next weekend, late. The storm, to be called Sandy, has formed this Monday morning. Now will it hit us with tropical storm winds and ,far inland, snow?

The Canadian model shows a powerful storm right next to Maryland this weekend.  There will be much uncertainty until the Wednesday or Thursday computer model runs come in.  Thanks to DT at Wxrisk .com and on Facebook.

ALL I CAN SAY IS WOW! A major atmospheric upheaval is on the maps about one week hence. This could be quite a storm, if it plays out!

Some of the best computer models are predicting a big storm for the Halloween time frame. Anything from a tropical storm to a snowstorm. All the weather geeks are taking notice. A mid west snow and wind and rain on the coast is possible.

Also at Weatherunderground, Blizzard 92's blog calls for a turn to cooler weather in early November. Wintry precip may occur by the second week in November.

Weatherunderground reports that this winter is just a big question mark as far as what to expect. The El Nino that was expected has faded out and if this continues the prospects for a snowy winter may also. Never before, has an El Nino started during the summer and then faded to neutral in the autumn.

Generally milder weather until we get near the end of October.

Blizz92 at Weatherunderground, winter forecast due soon.

This young forecaster wants another 2 weeks to make his winter forecast.  Right now though, it looks like the early winter will be near normal in temperature and probably somewhat above normal snowfall.  Early November could bring the first snow threat to interior areas.

Of concern is the possibility of an Alaskan vortex forming, which is a snow killer for the East Coast.  Wxrisk also expressed this view.  Stay tuned.

FREEZE WATCH, FRIDAY / SATURDAY.

... Freeze watch in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a freeze watch...
which is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning.

* Locations... coastal sections of southern Connecticut... Rockland
and northern Westchester counties in New York... and portions of
interior northeast New Jersey.

* Hazards... sub-freezing temperatures.

* Temperatures... mostly upper 20s to lower 30s.

* Timing... after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning.

* Impacts... temperatures below freezing could kill crops and
sensitive vegetation.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Stowe, Vermont. receives its' first snowfall Oct. 8th, of about 4" on the top of Mt. Mansfield. This is about normal for that location.

LONG RANGE OUTL@@K! The next ten days will be chilly. A milding trend will likely occur from mid-month until near the end of the month. Late October will turn chilly again as will early November. The winter appears likely to be a snowy one. This is my best estimate from Accuweather and Wxrisk discussions as well as the NWS.