Friday, February 28, 2014

Snowy Monday ahead!

A general 6 to 12" snowfall will begin late Sunday and continue through most of Monday.

The details may be clear by late Friday night.

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Mostly cold and dry until early Sunday and then another storm.

Snow flurries and snow showers today and tomorrow, a small accumulation is possible , especially early tomorrow.

WPC is forecasting a storm beginning Sunday, March 2, through March 4.  A total of 4 to 10 inches of snow and sleet may occur.  A mix of snow, ice, rain is likely, so accumulations will vary widely depending upon your temperature and location.  The northwest should see the most snow.

Mild weekend will give way to cold and snowy next week.

By Wednesday it will feel like the polar vortex is back.  It will be.  There may be light snow Wednesday and a bigger storm next weekend.  Lots of uncertainty, especially since all the models have been less reliable than usual, all winter.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Very cold weather with lots of snow potential is still in the long range weather forecast for New Jersey and New York Metro.


 Next week will feature a light snow.

The weekend following will potentially produce 1 to 2 feet of snow.  March roars in like a lion!

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

EURO weather model has two snowstorms next week for New Jersey and New York Metro.

Cold air returns next week but until then we will have mild temperatures.  Lots of melting Friday.

Then next week, a snowstorm for late Tuesday and then another on Friday.  The Friday storm looks like a strong one.

March will come roaring in next Friday, as it looks now.  But that is a long way off and a lot can change between now and then.

These storms may not be all snow but a mixture snow, ice and rain.  The pattern is really looking loaded with POTENTIAL.  As usual, there are no guarantees.

A substantial snow early on Tuesday, several days of milder weather, and next week the arctic air returns.

New Jersey is getting a break in the weather forecast this week.  After  a snowfall on Tuesday of  from 3 to 6 inches, the weather turns milder.  We will see one day with 50 degree temperatures on Friday, along with rain, not snow.

But next week , it will turn colder again and snow is possible toward the end of February and the beginning of March.  So winter is not over but we do get a respite.

Thanks to WxRisk and NY NJ PA Weather and the National Weather Service.

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Friday, February 14, 2014

Snow depth reports

   Ledyard Center 4.0 1100 am 2/13 trained spotter

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
   East Rutherford 14.4 1208 PM 2/13 public
   Franklin Lakes 14.0 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Glen Rock 13.5 100 PM 2/13 public
   Emerson 13.2 1200 PM 2/13 public
   North Arlington 13.1 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Saddle Brook 13.0 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Bergenfield 13.0 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Ramsey 13.0 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Ridgewood 12.8 1200 am 2/14 trained spotter
   Allendale 12.1 1220 PM 2/13 public
   Tenafly 12.0 1215 PM 2/13 public
   Lodi 12.0 1145 am 2/13 public
   Rivervale 11.6 217 PM 2/13 public
   Lyndhurst 11.0 1230 PM 2/13 public
   Woodcliff Lake 11.0 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Mahwah 10.0 115 PM 2/13 public
   Wyckoff 9.5 400 PM 2/13 trained spotter

... Essex County...
   Verona 14.0 1200 PM 2/13 public
   Millburn 12.5 1140 am 2/13 public
   West Orange 12.5 1200 PM 2/13 public
   Cedar Grove 12.4 500 PM 2/13 public
   West Caldwell 12.2 200 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Newark Airport 10.1 100 am 2/14 FAA contract observer
   Maplewood 9.3 100 PM 2/13 public

... Hudson County...
   Kearny 15.0 1235 PM 2/13 cocorahs
   Harrison 11.5 218 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   North Bergen 10.5 1045 am 2/13 trained spotter
   Hoboken 10.0 1215 PM 2/13 trained spotter

... Passaic County...
   Wayne 13.0 1200 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Hawthorne 12.1 111 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Ringwood 11.5 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Haskell 11.5 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Clifton 11.0 1115 am 2/13 trained spotter
   West Milford 10.5 100 PM 2/13 public
   Bloomingdale 9.4 130 PM 2/13 trained spotter

... Union County...
   Westfield 13.0 100 PM 2/13 public
   Roselle 12.1 1200 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Union 11.7 100 PM 2/13 trained spotter
   Garwood 11.0 1230 PM 2/13 public 

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Part 2of the party poops out.

Only north and west areas will see heavy snow accumulate overnight, based on radar and surface observations.  Still , several inches , may accumulate in other areas.

Temperatures did not crash, so we got more rain and sleet than snow.

Morning driving will not be good.

Storm goes boom over New Jersey.


 It is now possible that parts of New Jersey will see 15 to 20 inch amounts of snow accumulation.


  It all depends on whether your location switches over to sleet and rain.....or not.


And Part 2 hits New Jersey tonight!  Another 4 to even 12 inches more, on top of what we got this morning.  Surprises, yes.



... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am EST Friday...

* locations... western Passaic... eastern Passaic... western
Bergen... eastern Bergen... western Essex... eastern Essex...
western Union... eastern Union.

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches... along
with up to a tenth of an inch of ice. Highest amounts farther
north and west.

* Winds... north 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Temperatures... around 30.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing... heavy snow will taper off to light freezing rain and
sleet by mid afternoon... before changing back to moderate to
heavy snow tonight. The snow will taper off after midnight.

* Impacts... snowfall will make travel treacherous. Heavy... wet
snow will likely bring down some tree limbs and power lines.
Weak... flat roof structures may also be susceptible to
collapsing.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.


Light snow in Northern NJ at 12:12pm.


Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Atlantic City, Mount Holly, Millville, report light snow, 10 pm.

Storm has surprises for us, here in New Jersey.

The heaviest, most intense snow will fall between about 8 am up through lunchtime, on Thursday.  Some people will see thunder snow .  Other areas will mix in sleet and freezing rain.  Just about everyone will have some sleet and rain in the afternoon.  It will look like the storm is winding down but, another round of fairly heavy snow should develop after nightfall.  The storm will subside before dawn on Friday.

Most places will have between 6 to 12 inches of snow, but there will be some spots near the ocean with only 2 to 4 inches.  Some inland areas will push the 20 inch total.  We will not know exactly where until tomorrow.

The weather will always surprise you, so watch out for the morning dump , which is heading our way tonight.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Major east coast storm now likely from late Wednesday into Thursday.

Northern NJ will feel the effects but that could be snow, a mixture or mostly rain.

6 to 12 inches seems quite possible for much of the northern areas in the Garden State.  

There should be a better focus on what the storm may do by tomorrow.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

A little snow Sunday and a little more Wednesday into Thursday.

Tomorrow should not be enough snow ,to attract much attention.  Mostly late afternoon and evening, 1 or 2".  But watch it, just in case we get a curve ball.

Mid-week, another  light to moderate snow appears fairly likely.  It too may feature some rain especially toward the end of the event.  The Euro has it's mojo working again on that one.

Then the week after , perhaps a moderation in the cold pattern!

February is the snowiest but also, the last, month of winter.

Snow chances ahead?

Saturday,Sunday still a chance for light snow.

Valentines Day ( 13,14 Feb.) Snow potential appears.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Northern New Jersey Weather


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.
* TIMING...SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
&&

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.
* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Snow today, snow/ice Tuesday night and Wednesday, major snow looking likely this coming weekend.

The best thing that could happen Tuesday night and Wednesday would be if it trends colder and we get all snow and no ice.

Next weekend has a classic snowstorm look to it so far.  New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania will remember this week for a long time.  A snowy weather forecast, but then it is February.

What will the next storm on this weekend have?

Cold air supply
50/50 low
Blocking in the Davis Straight of Greenland
Negatively tilted trough
Moisture feed from the south,
Phasing upper level low pressure systems


In other words, nearly perfect.   Up to a weekly total of 2 feet of snow is potentially there.  Not saying if it will verify since we have a week to get there.

THIS WHOLE THING WENT ALMOST COMPLETELY BUST! 2/8

Snow total, late morning, Monday for New Jersey

   Prices Corner 0.4 1122 am 2/03 deos

New Jersey

... Burlington County...
   Burlington TWP 5.0 1100 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Florence 4.6 1135 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Bordentown 4.4 1040 am 2/03 social media
   Riverside 2.1 900 am 2/03 social media

... Camden County...
   Cherry Hill 1.8 1037 am 2/03 social media

... Hunterdon County...
   Califon 5.7 955 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Kingwood TWP 5.0 1000 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Whitehouse Station 5.0 948 am 2/03 broadcast media
   Whitehouse 4.5 923 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Tewksbury TWP 4.5 1035 am 2/03 Hell Mountain
   Readington TWP 4.3 1025 am 2/03 trained spotter

... Mercer County...
   Ewing 5.5 1100 am 2/03 NWS employee
   Pennington 4.5 1041 am 2/03 social media
   Hopewell TWP 3.5 830 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Trenton 2.0 900 am 2/03 trained spotter

... Middlesex County...
   Cranbury 6.8 1130 am 2/03 trained spotter
   East Brunswick 5.0 1030 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Plainsboro 3.0 927 am 2/03 public

... Monmouth County...
   Lincroft 4.6 1130 am 2/03 trained spotter

... Morris County...
   Rockaway 4.5 1130 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Randolph TWP 4.5 1007 am 2/03 social media
   Kinnelon 4.0 1140 am 2/03 social media
   2 E Randolph TWP 4.0 845 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Marcella 3.3 815 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Succasunna 2.8 715 am 2/03 social media

... Ocean County...
   Lakehurst 1.5 1110 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Manchester TWP 1.0 1109 am 2/03 trained spotter

... Somerset County...
   Bound Brook 5.0 1110 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Bridgewater TWP 5.0 1100 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Belle Mead 5.0 1135 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Rocky Hill 4.0 945 am 2/03 social media

... Sussex County...
   Sparta 4.5 1000 am 2/03 social media
   Hampton TWP 3.5 1150 am 2/03 NWS employee
   Highland Lakes 2.7 745 am 2/03 elevation 1415 feet
   Wantage 1.5 1040 am 2/03 trained spotter
   3 SW Wantage 1.2 900 am 2/03 NWS employee

... Warren County...
   Stewartsville 5.8 1000 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Belvidere 5.5 1045 am 2/03 Scotts Mountain
   hope 3.5 930 am 2/03 trained spotter
   Hackettstown 3.5 916 am 2/03 trained spotter 

Sunday, February 2, 2014

How I did on my Sunday Super Bowl forecast.

My forecast from Sunday, Jan. 27 :

My new forecast is slightly warmer and drier.  But otherwise, the forecast I made on Jan. 16th, is about the same.

Mostly cloudy, winds 5 to 10 mph, temperatures 38F to 28 F. 

Note that a winter storm moves in the next day on Monday, Feb. 3.





My original forecast from Jan. 16 was :

Super Bowl Forecast
Partly cloudy, windy, snow  showers, temperatures 25 to 30 at kickoff.

The days leading up to the Super Bowl will be cold and probably snowy as well.  Expect snow on the ground and frigid temperatures that week.

PLEASE NOTE THIS IS MY OWN BEST GUESS AND NOT ANY OFFICIAL WEATHER FORECAST.  WE ARE definitely heading into a cold regime with multiple light to moderate snow threats.

Thanks to Wxrisk & DT, Steve Dimartino  at NYNJPAWEATHER.COM, ACCUWEATHER.COM !

And.......the National Weather Service too!


Saturday, February 1, 2014

Weather forecast for Monday: Snow

So far, the northern New Jersey areas are good for 1 to 3", on Monday, daytime hours.

Central Jersey and shore areas 3 to 6"

Estimates vary widely, but the above seems most likely right now.

More to come Tuesday night into Wednesday but will likely switch over to rain.  Morning commute Wed. Could be a problem.