Chilly Thursday then clouds and rain move in Friday and Saturday

36 degrees in Morristown this morning! Warmer this weekend and becoming sunny Sunday. Big cool down Oct. 12th. preceded by rainy weather.



CDC UPDATE ON SWINE FLU:

:

• Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) continued to increase in some areas of the country, and overall, are higher than levels expected for this time of the year.
• Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed influenza are higher than expected for this time of year for adults and children. And for children 5-17 and adults 18-49 years of age, hospitalization rates from April – September 2009 exceed average flu season rates (for October through April).
• The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report was low and within the bounds of what is expected at this time of year. However, 60 pediatric deaths related to 2009 H1N1 flu have been reported to CDC since April 2009, including 11 deaths reported this week.
• Twenty-seven states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming. Any reports of widespread influenza activity in September are very unusual.
• Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

Old Farmers' Almanac predicts "numbing cold" this winter

Another juror just voted for a cold snowy winter this year. The Old Farmers' Almanac expects a bitter winter for the mid section of the USA.

Swine Flu Update

Right now both Alaska and Maine have widespread flu outbreaks and New Jersey shows sporadic activity. But the government expects an early and rapid spread of the flu not long after schools reopen. An unprecedented flu vaccination campaign is planned that will attempt to vaccinate at least half the US population as quickly as possible.

A word of advice, if you or your child gets flu symptoms, stay home!!!

Hurricane Bill will cause dangerous surf this weekend on the East coast.

Even though Bill will miss New Jersey by 200 miles or more it will cause dangerous surf conditions to develop as early as Friday evening. Long Island and Cape Cod will see damage done to beach areas. Keep tuned to advice on precautions on or near the ocean. Friday will be critical in finding out which track Bill will follow.

In 1821 the New York City area was not so lucky, a major hurricane hit New York directly. The tide rose 13 feet in one hour and everything below Canal Street was flooded by the waters of the Hudson and East rivers.. Few people lived in the area at the time.

A direct hit by a major hurricane could cause a storm surge at The Battery of 24 feet. 3 million people would be forced to evacuate , most through New Jersey. Hoboken could see a storm surge of 20 to 30 feet. Someday, who knows when, this could all actually happen.

The last major hurricane in the Northeast was the 1938 hurricane which brought a 30 foot storm surge into Providence, RI. In 1960, hurricane Donna brought an 11 foot storm surge into the New York area.

As David Ludlum, famed weather historian said, " the weather will always surprise you! ".

Siberia update

Thursday evening, chance of snow , low 28 degrees. Daylight will be 15 minutes shorter than yesterday.

Tropical storm Claudette suddenly forms in Gulf near Florida

There are now 4, yes, 4 tropical systems to watch. Claudette will head toward Fla and Ala. Anna struggles and Bill strengthens.

Claudette will move onto land tonight in the Florida panhandle with strong winds and rain, but below hurricane status.

Bill may nearly miss the east coast in about a week. Anna may fall apart over the islands.

Distant Atlantic storm will be watched closely in about 10 days.

A developing tropical system near Africa, could affect the USA in about 10 days. So far, the GFS computer model has it near the eastern seaboard about then. For N.J., it would be about the 25th of August.

A computer run Friday morning shows the storm in the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans. And so it will go and we will have to wait quite awhile before the track becomes more certain.

Flu update New Jersey Dept. of Health

In spring 2009, a Novel H1N1 influenza (previously referred to as "swine flu") circulated through the United States and the rest of the world.

In New Jersey, most people infected with this virus experienced mild disease, although as with every type of influenza, there were deaths associated with the H1N1 strain.

The symptoms of H1N1 flu are similar to the symptoms of seasonal flu and include fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue. Some people have reported diarrhea and vomiting associated with H1N1 influenza. Also, like seasonal flu, severe disease and death has occurred as a result of illness associated with this virus.

Information on the spread of this virus may change frequently. This website will be updated as new information becomes available.

What You Can Do to Stay Healthy Stay informed. This website will be updated regularly as information becomes available. Take everyday actions to stay healthy. Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it and then wash your hands. If you do not have a tissue, use your sleeve. Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective. Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way. Stay home if you get sick. Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures. Find healthy ways to deal with stress and anxiety

Press Releases, Speeches and Vide

Will no sunspots add up to cooler weather? Could be. Also, this weeks' swine flu update.

The sun is now in an unusually long quiet period with a lack of sunspots. In the past, in what is known as the Maunder minimum, there was a long period of little or no sunspot activity. This coincided with what is called The Little Ice Age. During this time there was a noticeable cooling in Europe and North America and many glaciers began to advance. People ice skated on the Thames in London. Settlers in northern regions had to relocate to warmer zones.

But nobody has ever given a mechanism to explain how a lack of sunspots could cause a cooler climate. Recently, some Danish scientists proposed a mechanism. No sunspots mean less magnetic activity from the sun since sunspots represent solar magnetic storms. Less magnetic activity from the sun, in turn, causes lower magnetic activity on the planets. It is the Earths' magnetic field that steers many cosmic rays away from our planet.

With a weaker magnetic field here on earth, more cosmic rays penetrate the atmosphere. These high energy rays cause the formation of ionized particles which serve as nuclei around which cloud droplets can form.

The result is more clouds which reflect solar energy back into space. With less solar heat, the atmosphere cools.

Many scientists dispute this theory but there still seems to be a connection with solar activity and climate.

Not hot enough? Wait until Monday.

We will be seeing warmer weather now and next week. The tropics are showing our first possible tropical depression.

SWINE FLU UPDATE

Total U.S. Novel H1N1 Flu Hospitalizations and Deaths
Posted August 7, 2009, 11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by August 6, 2009, 11:00 AM ET

Reporting States and Territories*	Hospitalized Cases	Deaths
50	6,506	436
*Includes the District of Columbia, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The number of hospitalized novel H1N1 cases and deaths presented in this table are an aggregate of reports received by CDC from U.S. states and territories and will be updated weekly each Friday at 11am. For state level information, refer to state health departments. CDC discontinued reporting of individual confirmed and probable cases of novel H1N1 infection on July 24, 2009. CDC will report the total number of hospitalizations and deaths weekly, and continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the novel H1N1 flu outbreak. For more information about CDC’s novel H1N1 influenza surveillance system, see Questions & Answers About CDC's Novel H1N1 Influenza Surveillance. International Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health Organization.

So far a very cool July. The coolest since 1996. Do you remember the blizzard of '96?

The Arctic Oscillation has been negative since June 1st.



... Unusually cool July for Central Park...

For some perspective... here are the top ten coolest julys on record
since 1869 for Central Park in New York city:

coolest
avg. Temp. Year
70.7 1888
71.9 1884
72.1 1914
72.3 2000/1871
72.4 1891
72.6 1895
72.8 1902/1869
72.9 1956
73.1 1890
73.2 2001


Due to the unusually cool conditions thus far in July... here are
some interesting facts to note...

With an average daily temperature of 71.8... currently running 4.4
degrees below normal... this July is on track for the 2nd coolest on
record. Below average temperatures have occurred on 18 out of 20
days... with the other two days being normal. There have been zero
above normal days.

Central Park has only reached 85 degrees once this month... on the
17th... and has not yet reached 90 degrees this Summer. If this
continues through the end of the month... it will be the first year
since 1996 where 90 degrees was not reached in June or July.
The year 1996 is also the only year on record in which 90 degrees
was not reached in June or July.

CDC predicts an early flu season A snowy winter looms ahead.

Accuweather.com forecasts snowiest winter in 5 years. I told you so.

See my comments June 24 and 29. The cool moist summer could lead to an old fashioned winter. I blame it on sunspots ( a lack thereof ), the Arctic Oscillation and volcano weather. Looks like we will hit the trifecta this winter! What about those Notilucent clouds, too? ( see spaceweather.com )

If a strong El Nino develops, it could cancel the snowy forecast.

SWINE FLU UPDATE JULY, 17th

The CDC expects the swine flu to hit early and often just as soon as schools reopen in September. A cause for concern is the report of a virus strain that resists Tamiflu treatment. A strong effort to prepare an effective vaccine is well underway.

Table. U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection
Web page updated July 17, 2009,
11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by July 17, 2009, 11:00 AM ET.

States and Territories*	Confirmed and Probable Cases	Deaths
States
Alabama	477 cases	0 deaths
Alaska	218 cases	0 deaths
Arizona	762 cases	11 deaths
Arkansas	47 cases	0 deaths
California	3161 cases	52 deaths
Colorado	155 cases	0 deaths
Connecticut	1581 cases	7 deaths
Delaware	364 cases	0 deaths
Florida	2188 cases	12 deaths
Georgia	174 cases	1 death
Hawaii	722 cases	1 death
Idaho	143 cases	0 deaths
Illinois	3357 cases	15 deaths
Indiana	282 cases	1 death
Iowa	165 cases	0 deaths
Kansas	186 cases	0 deaths
Kentucky	143 cases	0 deaths
Louisiana	232 cases	0 deaths
Maine	133 cases	0 deaths
Maryland	732 cases	3 deaths
Massachusetts	1343 cases	5 deaths
Michigan	515 cases	8 deaths
Minnesota	660 cases	3 deaths
Mississippi	219 cases	0 deaths
Missouri	70 cases	1 death
Montana	94 cases	0 deaths
Nebraska	264 cases	1 death
Nevada	406 cases	0 deaths
New Hampshire	247 cases	0 deaths
New Jersey	1350 cases	14 deaths
New Mexico	232 cases	0 deaths
New York	2670 cases	57 deaths
North Carolina	395 cases	4 deaths
North Dakota	61 cases	0 deaths
Ohio	161 cases	1 death
Oklahoma	176 cases	1 death
Oregon	465 cases	5 deaths
Pennsylvania	1914 cases	8 deaths
Rhode Island	188 cases	2 deaths
South Carolina	244 cases	0 deaths
South Dakota	39 cases	0 deaths
Tennessee	247 cases	1 death
Texas	4975 cases	24 deaths
Utah	966 cases	14 deaths
Vermont	59 cases	0 deaths
Virginia	319 cases	2 deaths
Washington	636 cases	4 deaths
Washington, D.C.	45 cases	0 deaths
West Virginia	227 cases	0 deaths
Wisconsin	6031 cases	5 deaths
Wyoming	106 cases	0 deaths
Territories
American Samoa	8 cases	0 deaths
Guam	1 case	0 deaths
Puerto Rico	18 cases	0 deaths
Virgin Islands	44 cases	0 deaths
TOTAL (55)*	40,617 cases	263 deaths
*Includes the District of Columbia, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This table will be updated each Friday at 11 AM ET. International Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health Organization. NOTE: Because of daily reporting deadlines, the state totals reported by CDC may not always be consistent with those reported by state health departments. If there is a discrepancy between these two counts, data from the state health departments should be used as the most accurate number. For more information about how these case counts are updated, see Questions & Answers About CDC's Online Reporting.

Sunday is the better day this weekend

Mostly sunny Saturday with a good chance of some showers or thunderstorms later in the day. Some morning showers then, mostly sunny Sunday and warm.

No heat waves in sight, we are still in a somewhat troughy pattern. June was in the top 10 coolest Junes and July so far, is also quite cool. So enjoy the lower A/C bill. Don't say that I did not tell you so.


SWINE FLU UPDATE

There are concerns that come next autumn , there will be major problems with a widespread flu outbreak.

Table. U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection
Web page updated July 10, 2009,
11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by July 10, 2009, 11:00 AM ET.

States and Territories*	Confirmed and Probable Cases	Deaths
States
Alabama	400 cases	0 deaths
Alaska	122 cases	0 deaths
Arizona	762 cases	11 deaths
Arkansas	42 cases	0 deaths
California	2461	31 deaths
Colorado	146 cases	0 deaths
Connecticut	1364 cases	6 deaths
Delaware	347 cases	0 deaths
Florida	1781 cases	7 death
Georgia	138 cases	0 deaths
Hawaii	722 cases	1 death
Idaho	115 cases	0 deaths
Illinois	3259 cases	14 deaths
Indiana	273 cases	0 deaths
Iowa	156 cases	0 deaths
Kansas	136 cases	0 deaths
Kentucky	130 cases	0 deaths
Louisiana	183 cases	0 deaths
Maine	107 cases	0 deaths
Maryland	686 cases	2 death
Massachusetts	1328 cases	4 deaths
Michigan	489 cases	8 deaths
Minnesota	634	3 death
Mississippi	188 cases	0 deaths
Missouri	68 cases	1 death
Montana	67 cases	0 deaths
Nebraska	215 cases	0 deaths
Nevada	327 cases	0 deaths
New Hampshire	237 cases	0 deaths
New Jersey	1289 cases	10 deaths
New Mexico	232 cases	0 deaths
New York	2582 cases	52 deaths
North Carolina	312 cases	2 deaths
North Dakota	58 cases	0 deaths
Ohio	147 cases	1 death
Oklahoma	150 cases	1 death
Oregon	403 cases	4
Pennsylvania	1794 cases	6 deaths
Rhode Island	177 cases	2 death
South Carolina	176 cases	0 deaths
South Dakota	34 cases	0 deaths
Tennessee	213 cases	0 deaths
Texas	4463 cases	21 deaths
Utah	953 cases	14 deaths
Vermont	50 cases	0 deaths
Virginia	306 cases	2 death
Washington	636 cases	4 deaths
Washington, D.C.	45 cases	0 deaths
West Virginia	179 cases	0 deaths
Wisconsin	6031 cases	4 death
Wyoming	99 cases	0 deaths
Territories
Guam	1 case	0 deaths
Puerto Rico	18 cases	0 deaths
Virgin Islands	15 case	0 deaths
TOTAL (54)*	37,246 cases	211 deaths
*Includes the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This table will be updated each Friday at 11 AM ET. International Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health Organization. NOTE: Because of daily reporting deadlines, the state totals reported by CDC may not always be consistent with those reported by state health departments. If there is a discrepancy between these two counts, data from the state health departments should be used as the most accurate number. For more information about how these case counts are updated, see Questions & Answers About CDC's Online Reporting.

Mosquito bumper crop, how to repel them.

Mosquitoes locate their victim from the carbon dioxide in the breath. Sight, sound or smell have little to do with it. Insect repellents block the receptors on the mosquito, so in effect they are flying blind. If they can't find you they can't bite you. Insect repellents ( contain DEET ) work best on the skin but they also work when applied to clothing. So, go ahead and spray shoes,socks,pants,shirts and hats, if you don't like repellent on your skin.

It works

WEATHER OUTLOOK

Monday mostly sunny small chance showers
Tuesday partly cloudy better chance of showers
Wednesday, Thursday mostly sunny

NEXT WEEKEND partly sunny and a chance of showers.