ACCUMULATING SNOW,ICE IN NEW JERSEY HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT!

Is our winter about to turn on a dime?

Up to 3 to 5 inches possible before changeover to plain rain Wednesday. Starting time around midnight.

Wednesday will be windy and rainy especially earlier in the day. After that colder weather and breezy.

Saturday night into Sunday a little snow is possible with the bulk of it in the southern portions of New Jersey. This should be watched closely , in case it moves further north as did the last storm, last Saturday.

A substantial snowpack is building to our North and West and will impact our weather in the days ahead.

PM update: Forecasters back off a bit on snow totals. Ultimately, we just have to wait and see what happens.

2:30 AM update: Snow! How long will it last?

Thanks to Henry at ACCUWEATHER.COM:

The GFS weather forecast model once again, shows a BIG snow hitting us on or about Dec. 16- 17th. That is the storm that could change everything.

Will it be a hit or a miss? I can't help dreaming of a White Christmas.

And there is even another storm 4 days later! It doesn't get any more wintry than that!

Whoah! Do not forget that many long range storm forecasts turn out to be only " paper blizzards."

Debate continues on how this winter will shape up. Cold or warm?

Accuweather long range meteorologist Joe Bastardi is still looking for a cold and snowy period from mid-December through New Years. The November trend we saw disagrees with his view. The computer models are fluctuating in their predictions. So it is anyone's guess as to how it will actually play out.

For certain, this week will feature a major snowstorm across the mid-west and plains states. There will be plenty of cold air and lake effect snow in the wake of the snowstorm.

New Jersey is in for a good rain which may start as snow late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, especially in the highlands. The end of the week will be cold but will it last? We have a fair shot at some snow, this weekend.

FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST is below. The November trend indicates a mostly mild and wet winter. ........read on......

Active winter weather pattern will continue with a windy and wet Wednesday

The mid-west and upper plains states will see near blizzard conditions from the storm during the middle of this workweek.

Here in New Jersey, we should expect a soaking rain and windy weather on Wednesday. The forecast is for cold weather to continue afterward.

Snow comes in heavier than anticipated.

Snowfall totals in inches.

Bergen County...
Lyndhurst, 0.8 1030 PM 12/5
Ridgewood, 0.7 900 PM 12/5
Midland Park, 0.5 800 am 12/6
North Arlington, 0.5 800 PM 12/5

Morris County...
Marcella, 5.0 715 PM 12/5
Randolph, 4.5 730 PM 12/5
Rockaway, 1.0 430 PM 12/5
Whippany, 0.5 430 PM 12/5

Passaic County

Ringwood, 5.0. 900 PM 12/5
West Milford, 7.0. 815 PM 12/5
Hewitt, 3. 530 PM 12/5

Only a few days ago, snow seemed a distant dream. Most areas received at least a coating by 9 PM. This week, Wednesday looks like the wet day. The precip. could begin Tuesday evening as a rain and snow mix.

The week after, a major storm is possible Dec. 17th to Dec. 20th. Certainly, this is not a sure thing.

We Have Lots of Weather Coming At Us for The Next Two Weeks!

End- of- the- world Nor'easter Dec. 18-20. Do you believe it?

A little snow likely in NJ Saturday, especially at evening time.

This is not a big snow but it may present a nuisance at night. Not much snow will be sticking.

Most likely, there will be rain during the day then mixing with and changing to snow with maybe an inch on the colder surfaces. The high lands might see 1 to as much as 3 inches.

Chicago Blizzard next Wednesday?

A week away, but it might happen. Two computer models show the same thing, when that happens you better watch out! Our whacky winter weather is about to begin. Get ready Missouri,Illinois,Michigan and Northern Indiana.

Could it be the end of the world as the people of Chicago know it? Nah!!!

Some snow possible Sat. night and another stormy Wed.& Thurs. next week.

Enjoy the warmth today as we will chill down tonight and this weekend. No big storm Saturday but we could see our first snowflakes. Cape May should see the most of it. Any snow will have a hard time sticking since the soil is quite warm.

Next week, there could be almost a repeat performance on the weather we had Wednesday and Thursday. Rain for us and snow way to our West. Watch out Chicago and Cleveland!

Until then, get your warm coat ready for tomorrow.

FEARLESS Winter Forecast below.

Siberia Update

Ojmjakon,Russia, -60 below zero

Beautiful Dec. 1st will be followed by stormy Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

A storm moving up from the Gulf states to the Great Lakes will make a stormy night tomorrow. Mild air will return briefly then a cold trend sets in by the weekend. There is even a chance of snow showers on Saturday.


SOME PRACTICAL INDICATORS OF A MILD WINTER AHEAD.

There is no snow pack in the Northern tier of states nor even well into Canada. There has been no Lake effect snow in areas such as Buffalo, Rochester and Cleveland.

No Vermont ski areas have been able to open yet. It has been too warm for the snow machines to operate .Skiers may have to deal with a Brown Christmas for the first time in years. Stowe, Vermont ski area will open Dec. 5th. it was just announced.

A Thanksgiving survey of the local ponds shows no ice present. Contrast that to a hard winter such as 1976-77 when they were all frozen by Thanksgiving.

No snow cover means cold spells will be short lived.

After a hard freeze on Nov. 6th , mild weather caused some spring bulbs to send up shoots.

THE FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST IS BELOW, read on.


SIBERIA UPDATE

Ojmjakon, Russsia - 59 below zero

FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST

This winter appears to be a typical wild ride with wide swings in temperature and types of precipitation. There will be 2 main storm tracks, one toward the Great Lakes region ( not a snowmaker for NJ. ) and the other track is the coastal storm track, which can cause major snow. Right now, it looks like the Great Lakes track will predominate. So, the winter will average out mild to near normal. The Midwest will usually get the most snow and cold.

All this appears to be the result of an El Nino which will be just strong enough to spare the Northeast from a brutal winter.. But there will be storms , wind,rain and snow aplenty. You just won't be shoveling it all winter long.


Having said that, after a storny Wednesday and Thursday, we will have colder weather settling in this Saturday and for the next 7 to 10 days afterward. The mild days of November are about to become only a memory, at least for a while. Remember, winter is just starting. A major cold air invasion will hit Canada late this week. This could lead to a very cold outbreak here in mid- December.

My winter forecast will be updated just before Christmas, because there definitely are mixed signals on the upcoming winter.

As famed weather historian David Ludlum once said, " The weather will always surprise you! " .

Thanksgiving, weather shifts gears.

Fairly mild November weather for a few more days, then wet cooler conditions develop.Chance of rain Mon. and Tues.

Thanksgiving

Partly cloudy, chance of pm showers, turning colder.

Black Friday mostly cloudy, cold some showers/ snow flurries.

Dec 2,3 rain followed by colder weather.

Snow likely in upstate New York Friday.

Mostly sunny week ahead

Monday will be mild with the remainder of the week being mostly to partly sunny with temps in the 50's. But then, last week was supposed to be quiet also and we wound up with a Nor'easter that pounded the Jersey shore.

GLOBAL WARMING CONTINUES

World-wide the month of September was the 5th warmest on record. But not here.

TWO Schools of thought on the upcoming winter.

Most long range forecasters are looking for a cold, snowy winter. The opposing view ( somewhat ) is that a fairly strong El Nino,is going to cause a split jetstream, giving us a widely variable winter , with more wet than white.

I will make my own winter forecast after Thanksgiving.

SIBERIA UPDATE

Verhoyansk, Russia - 47 below zero

No big weather events here for at least a week, little or no rain.,with just a little maybe Wednesday.

One computer model shows a powerful Noreaster for Wed. and Thurs. this week, the other shows nothing. Which to believe?


RAIN/SNOW possible Nov. 22

Seasonably chilly and partly cloudy all week and probably into next weekend.

November is winter weather forecast month. During this time, the pattern for the coming winter becomes more clear.