NOAA predicts Nov.,Dec.,Jan.

Click on the map to enlarge.

A= above B= below EC= equal chances

The Southern USA looks pretty good for a mild winter.

Freeze Warning Oct. 31, through Monday morning, Nov. 1st.

Hurricane Tomas enters the Caribbean. Haiti may be in the path.

A newly formed hurricane, Tomas ( yes, letter T and still going) is on the east end of the Caribbean and is expected to intensify as it heads west.


Poor Haiti may catch it.  Cholera is rapidly becoming Haiti's most urgent problem and soaking rains are adding to the danger.

Super typhoon Megi set to strike the Philippines.

With winds of 180 mph and gusts to 200 mph this Pacific storm could deal a catastrophic blow to the northern Philippines islands.  Only 3 Atlantic storms have ever been stronger than Megi.  NASA photo.

Winter ahead and still no clear signal on what it may bring.

For What It Is Worth: Global Warming

Glaciers are melting, shrinking,  and retreating in most places around the globe.  That is no hoax, it is simply a fact.  Why?  Now it gets a little complicated. Here are the possibilities.

Human activity is the cause.

A natural cycle is at work.

It is a conspiracy by liberals.

I think it is a combination of the first two.  We can discard the third. The reason I favor the combination idea, is firstly, because we have had very warm climactic periods, long before humans were burning anything.  Something happens all on its' own periodically, and it gets extremely warm.  Ask the dinosaurs.

But, I also blame human causes because the temperature rise is so rapid. We are consuming gigantic quantities of fuel every day.  All that CO2 has to go somewhere.  It is accumulating in the atmosphere.  And we know precisely, to within one part per million, how much CO2 is in our atmosphere, from measurements carefully made, since 1957.  Every year, without exception, the amount of CO2 is increasing. Why? There are several possibilities.

Human activity is the cause.

Natural processes, not well understood, are the cause.
The trees just can't keep up with it.

It is a conspiracy by Carrier Air Conditioners.

Once again, we can throw out the last one.  So, that leaves the first three possibilities. Which is it? We don't know for sure.  The only thing we know for sure, is that it has become dramatically warmer.  Yet, interestingly, in very recent years, the warming has slowed somewhat.  We don't know exactly why. Natural fluctuations are the best guess.

Most experts, who know much more than I do, strongly suspect that the "greenhouse effect" caused by humans, is the cause of it all.  I can't argue with them. On the other hand, other experts argue that it is too soon to tell if we are really in a long range climate warm up.  I can't argue with them either!

But, other experts point to a warm/cold cycle in the Pacific Ocean, that has caused the warming.  And now, the warm cycle, appears to be ending.  We can only wait and see what happens.  Drink Kool-Aid, is my best advice, in the meantime.

It was a hot summer, wasn't it?

We had lots of rain and now get ready for more.

NOAA graphic on the recent rainstorm.  More on the way Sunday night and Monday.

NOAA predicts plenty of rain, high winds and potential flooding.

A high wind warning is in effect today and tonight along with a flood watch.  Winds may gust to 60 mph with possible downed trees and powerlines.  Around 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected.

Weather service posts flood watch. Areas to the west are receiving the most rain.

NOAA graphic.  

Areas in North Carolina have received well over a foot of rain.

As of mid - morning, on Thursday, in Northern NJ, we have had about 1 inch of rain since midnight.

Areas in Pennsylvania have had about 2 inches of rain.

Lots of rain headed our way, we hope. Sunday night into Tuesday we should see a soaking rain.

Tropical trouble brewing in the Caribbean.

A hurricane will likely form and may hit the Gulf states or Florida in about a week.  A very active hurricane season continues.

Hurricane Igor as seen from the International Space Station.

NASA photo Sept. 14th.  Category 4 hurricane

3 hurricanes in the Atlantic today

Add captionNASA photo GOES East

Severe thunderstorm watch late this afternoon and evening.

Storms are now moving through Sussex county and may affect us locally in the next several hours.

AUTUMNAL WEATHER ALL WEEK.

No more heat waves on the horizon and we should be in the 70's all week.  With luck we will escape the two forming hurricanes as well.


Igor goes from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in less than 24 hours.  Very warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear helped this to occur.  Don't take your sailboat to Bermuda this coming weekend!