Thanksgiving will bring active weather changes across the country, the Northeast will escape the worst of it.

Thanksgiving will bring a chance for rain showers and fairly mild temps.  But a shift to much colder will quickly follow. 


 Early next week will be fairly mild in our area, so enjoy it, while it lasts.  Tuesday, about 60 degrees, but by Friday, only the low 40's.  Perhaps the 30's next weekend.


The northern Rockies and plains states will be dealing with snow and falling temperatures, for Thanksgiving travel Tuesday and Wednesday.  Sub - zero temps may reach into the Rockies.


Black Friday and the weekend following will be cold and blustery, with Lake effect snows likely in the Great Lakes states.  The charts show about 7 days of lake effect snows beginning Friday next week.  Look out Buffalo, Rochester, Western PA.


New Jersey will see chilly and breezy conditions, the weekend following Thanksgiving.  The potential for quite cold weather is also there.  No snow yet, but Sussex County might see flurries, certainly the Poconos will see snow showers.


Indications are that December or at least the early portion of the month, will be cold.

Some wintry travel problems possible for Thanksgiving travelers.

From Denver to Chicago to Minnesota there may be travel delays brewing next week.  Stay tuned.  Much colder by Black Friday.

Turn to colder by the end of this week.

The early outlook for Thanksgiving is for some wintry travel conditions in some areas and a cold outbreak immediately after Thanksgiving.

National Weather Service Winter Outlook ( so far )

• Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. These are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow.

No, this forecast does not say much, it is that kind of winter, anything goes.  A strongly negative NAO could mean stormy wintery weather in the near future. Stay tuned.

Ocean storm moves in toward the coast and brings our first taste of sleet and snow.

Westward moving storms are unusual at our latitude, but here today we have one.  Plenty of wind with gusts to 40 mph at times.  No accumulations expected in NJ.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
 LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT
 CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT 0.4 700 AM 11/8 COOP OBSERVER

 SHELTON 0.3 728 AM 11/8 COOP OBSERVER

 DANBURY 0.2 838 AM 11/8 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...

MIDDLESEX COUNTY... PORTLAND 1.3 800 AM 11/8

 KILLINGWORTH 0.5 640 AM 11/8 NEWS MEDIA ...

NEW HAVEN COUNTY... MADISON 1.0 632 AM 11/8 PUBLIC

 NEW HAVEN 0.5 640 AM 11/8 NEWS MEDIA

 BRANFORD 0.3 619 AM 11/8 PUBLIC ...

NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON 0.5 615 AM 11/8 FIRE DEPARTMENT $$

Ojmajakon, Russia ( Siberia ) update

-40 degrees F. below zero, Oct. 7, 2010

Snowiest October on record for Mt. Mansfield, VT.

... October 2010 the wettest and snowiest October on record atop
Mount Mansfield... 

A total of 14.71 inches of liquid precipitation fell on Mount
Mansfield during the month of October. This breaks the old record
of 14.43 inches set in October 2006.

A total of 34.1 inches of snow fell on Mount Mansfield during the
month of October. This breaks the old record of 31.8 inches set in
October 2005. 

Only 3 more evening school classes left and Finis.

NOAA predicts Nov.,Dec.,Jan.

Click on the map to enlarge.

A= above B= below EC= equal chances

The Southern USA looks pretty good for a mild winter.

Freeze Warning Oct. 31, through Monday morning, Nov. 1st.

Hurricane Tomas enters the Caribbean. Haiti may be in the path.

A newly formed hurricane, Tomas ( yes, letter T and still going) is on the east end of the Caribbean and is expected to intensify as it heads west.


Poor Haiti may catch it.  Cholera is rapidly becoming Haiti's most urgent problem and soaking rains are adding to the danger.

Super typhoon Megi set to strike the Philippines.

With winds of 180 mph and gusts to 200 mph this Pacific storm could deal a catastrophic blow to the northern Philippines islands.  Only 3 Atlantic storms have ever been stronger than Megi.  NASA photo.

Winter ahead and still no clear signal on what it may bring.

For What It Is Worth: Global Warming

Glaciers are melting, shrinking,  and retreating in most places around the globe.  That is no hoax, it is simply a fact.  Why?  Now it gets a little complicated. Here are the possibilities.

Human activity is the cause.

A natural cycle is at work.

It is a conspiracy by liberals.

I think it is a combination of the first two.  We can discard the third. The reason I favor the combination idea, is firstly, because we have had very warm climactic periods, long before humans were burning anything.  Something happens all on its' own periodically, and it gets extremely warm.  Ask the dinosaurs.

But, I also blame human causes because the temperature rise is so rapid. We are consuming gigantic quantities of fuel every day.  All that CO2 has to go somewhere.  It is accumulating in the atmosphere.  And we know precisely, to within one part per million, how much CO2 is in our atmosphere, from measurements carefully made, since 1957.  Every year, without exception, the amount of CO2 is increasing. Why? There are several possibilities.

Human activity is the cause.

Natural processes, not well understood, are the cause.
The trees just can't keep up with it.

It is a conspiracy by Carrier Air Conditioners.

Once again, we can throw out the last one.  So, that leaves the first three possibilities. Which is it? We don't know for sure.  The only thing we know for sure, is that it has become dramatically warmer.  Yet, interestingly, in very recent years, the warming has slowed somewhat.  We don't know exactly why. Natural fluctuations are the best guess.

Most experts, who know much more than I do, strongly suspect that the "greenhouse effect" caused by humans, is the cause of it all.  I can't argue with them. On the other hand, other experts argue that it is too soon to tell if we are really in a long range climate warm up.  I can't argue with them either!

But, other experts point to a warm/cold cycle in the Pacific Ocean, that has caused the warming.  And now, the warm cycle, appears to be ending.  We can only wait and see what happens.  Drink Kool-Aid, is my best advice, in the meantime.

It was a hot summer, wasn't it?

We had lots of rain and now get ready for more.

NOAA graphic on the recent rainstorm.  More on the way Sunday night and Monday.