Plan A: a storm moves in from the west and leaves 3 to 6 inches of snow.
Plan B: a storm forms in the Gulf states and comes up the coast. If it is near shore we get a foot of snow...or, it goes out to sea.
The timing now favors Sunday rather than Saturday.
Wait and see what it looks like on the Wednesday forecast or later.
Christmas Eve.: partly cloudy,cold
Christmas Day: snow developing , late
12/ 26: Snow.
New Years early outlook: snow changing to rain
2420
Monday, December 20, 2010
"Alaska Clipper" may slam NJ this weekend...yes, probably. Our best shot so far, this season. A real White Christmas?
I gave the storm that name, I think it fits. Things look good because this is a vigorous system, traveling a more northerly path, ;and the forecast model runs have had less wobble and waffling than is usually the case. The storm will enter the USA near San Francisco. If this holds together until Wednesday, then we can expect a snowy Christmas Weekend.
As is usual, there are a number of ways for the expected storm to unravel, so getting to the Wednesday afternoon forecast is critical. Think snow.
Monday 7 am update:
Euro model shows widespread 12 inch + snowstorm this weekend. May begin Christmas Eve.
Monday noon: Still on track but some wobble in some models. Waiting for 2 pm Euro.
12 Z Euro shows strong coastal storm but later in the weekend
3 pm:
We have to wait until Wed. or Thurs. to figure this one out. 3 to 6 inch snow is the most likely outcome so far. A complete miss is unlikely as is a big blizzard.
2378
As is usual, there are a number of ways for the expected storm to unravel, so getting to the Wednesday afternoon forecast is critical. Think snow.
Monday 7 am update:
Euro model shows widespread 12 inch + snowstorm this weekend. May begin Christmas Eve.
Monday noon: Still on track but some wobble in some models. Waiting for 2 pm Euro.
12 Z Euro shows strong coastal storm but later in the weekend
3 pm:
We have to wait until Wed. or Thurs. to figure this one out. 3 to 6 inch snow is the most likely outcome so far. A complete miss is unlikely as is a big blizzard.
2378
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Snowy weather for Christmas weekend growing more likely.
As of Sunday night most forecasters favor a snowy Christmas weather forecast. A major Northeast coastal storm could bring heavy snow, no rain. Still 5 or 6 days to go but it looks real good this time. Much more consistent than the last storm which is now snowing all over the tuna in the Atlantic Ocean tonight, and a little on Long Island, as well.
How much? 3 to 6 inches most likely, 12 inches possible. Timing looks like anywhere from Friday night to Monday morning. Saturday is in the bullseye.
2366
How much? 3 to 6 inches most likely, 12 inches possible. Timing looks like anywhere from Friday night to Monday morning. Saturday is in the bullseye.
2366
Ditto, see below. The White Christmas is still there. Keep hoping.
3 computer forecast models show a snowstorm for the Dec. 25 / 26 time period. Of course there is no agreement on the timing or the track. Much too early, to make a weather forecast that you can count on.
According to Henry M. at Accuweather.com, the storm will enter the USA near San Fransisco, which means it will exit near Delaware, giving the big cities snow for Christmas.
Preliminary timing estimate is that snow begins early Christmas day and the height of the storm is Christmas night.
Early estimate Philadelphia, 1 to 2 feet of snow in the forecast. That would be a worst case scenario. 3 to 6 inches is more likely.
A major snowstorm missed us today by a matter of miles, as the radar has been showing plenty of snow, over the ocean. This storm entered the USA in south California, and thus exited well to our south.
Sunday update 12:30 pm- Model runs still shows the snowstorm! 12Z Euro run shows vigorous coastal snowstorm.
New Years Day : milder, rainy.
2323
According to Henry M. at Accuweather.com, the storm will enter the USA near San Fransisco, which means it will exit near Delaware, giving the big cities snow for Christmas.
Preliminary timing estimate is that snow begins early Christmas day and the height of the storm is Christmas night.
Early estimate Philadelphia, 1 to 2 feet of snow in the forecast. That would be a worst case scenario. 3 to 6 inches is more likely.
A major snowstorm missed us today by a matter of miles, as the radar has been showing plenty of snow, over the ocean. This storm entered the USA in south California, and thus exited well to our south.
Sunday update 12:30 pm- Model runs still shows the snowstorm! 12Z Euro run shows vigorous coastal snowstorm.
New Years Day : milder, rainy.
2323
Saturday, December 18, 2010
White Christmas storm still on the map, only 7 days away. Maybe your wish will come true.
Christmas weather forecasts are way too early, but this is the 2nd. day that a snowstorm shows up on the GFS and the Euro forecast models.
6 to 12 inch variety storm. Maybe.
3 inches north, 6 inches south, more likely. But, don't count on it.
When can you believe the forecast? Wednesday afternoon about 4 pm. Then, get your snow blower gassed up, not before.
WE CAN COUNT ON ONE THING: 6 Shopping days left.
GFS forecast model, weather map for Christmas night.
Siberia update: -59 below zero!
2274
6 to 12 inch variety storm. Maybe.
3 inches north, 6 inches south, more likely. But, don't count on it.
When can you believe the forecast? Wednesday afternoon about 4 pm. Then, get your snow blower gassed up, not before.
WE CAN COUNT ON ONE THING: 6 Shopping days left.
Siberia update: -59 below zero!
2274
Friday, December 17, 2010
Cheer up ! The long range calls for snow Christmas day and the day after.
A series of clipper type storms, will pass through the next 2 weeks and there is a good chance for a moderate snowfall, from one of them. Otherwise continued cold and dry.
Major snowstorm will impact....Where? ( NJ is on the short list )
5 pm update:
Forget about it, little or no snow. Winter BEGINS next week.
12:30 UPDATE: Snowy prospects dwindle, but not yet eliminated.
Uncertainty reigns supreme on this storm. Trends indicate a lesser amount of snow for northern NJ.
Not much to do until the Saturday afternoon forecast comes out. Until then, it looks like light snow Sunday, if that.
Doubts remain on the weekend storm and there is a good chance that they will be removed by this afternoon's forecasts. Certainly a major storm will strike but where? Long Island and New England are the most likely targets, but, NJ is not far behind.
I suspect that NJ will see a substantial snow on Sunday, if not a blizzard.
This mornings' forecasts are subject to change, wait until this afternoon.
2220
Forget about it, little or no snow. Winter BEGINS next week.
12:30 UPDATE: Snowy prospects dwindle, but not yet eliminated.
Uncertainty reigns supreme on this storm. Trends indicate a lesser amount of snow for northern NJ.
Not much to do until the Saturday afternoon forecast comes out. Until then, it looks like light snow Sunday, if that.
Doubts remain on the weekend storm and there is a good chance that they will be removed by this afternoon's forecasts. Certainly a major storm will strike but where? Long Island and New England are the most likely targets, but, NJ is not far behind.
I suspect that NJ will see a substantial snow on Sunday, if not a blizzard.
This mornings' forecasts are subject to change, wait until this afternoon.
2220
Thursday, December 16, 2010
10 pm update.
Snow is likely Sunday, no doubt about that, but then we ask , how much snow?
There is a good deal of uncertainty on the track of the storm for NJ. Friday may resolve the differing tracks from the various forecast models. Eastern most NJ, Long Island and New England are the most likely locales for heavy snow.
But all of NJ could see a major impact, time will tell. The models are trending the storm closer to the coast, which would mean, more snow.
And, we have a shot at more snow a little later next week.
From what I have been reading , a major snow for all of NJ, is likely but not certain, as yet. Get ready. Someone is getting blasted by this one.
Whatever you do, don't drive to Boston this weekend! You may not get back until Wednesday.
2202
Snow is likely Sunday, no doubt about that, but then we ask , how much snow?
There is a good deal of uncertainty on the track of the storm for NJ. Friday may resolve the differing tracks from the various forecast models. Eastern most NJ, Long Island and New England are the most likely locales for heavy snow.
But all of NJ could see a major impact, time will tell. The models are trending the storm closer to the coast, which would mean, more snow.
And, we have a shot at more snow a little later next week.
From what I have been reading , a major snow for all of NJ, is likely but not certain, as yet. Get ready. Someone is getting blasted by this one.
Whatever you do, don't drive to Boston this weekend! You may not get back until Wednesday.
2202
UH OH! Here comes a storm on Sunday? Yes Virginia, there is a Santa.
Afternoon update: Euro model shows major weekend storm! Wild ! So many different views on the snowstorm. Stay tuned, things may be changing.
6 inches, to as much as 2 feet of snow, cannot be ruled out! ( Steve D. at NY NJ PA Weather.com )
Models and forecasters differ widely on the predictions.
2:20 pm
5, five, computer models now show major winter storm. They seem to agree on the outcome for the first time.
Western NJ may see much less snow, as you move closer to the coast, the snow totals will increase dramatically.
Storm may stall, prolonging snowfall into Monday.
Forecasting difficulties, plus the anticipated rapid intensification, means a clear picture may not emerge until Friday or even Saturday. But there has been a definite , sudden shift to a snowier weekend forecast, than was seen even as recently as Thursday morning.
Eastern regions and New England most likely to bear the brunt of the snowstorm. NYC and Long Island in the heavy snow zone. Immediate coast may see rain for a time.
Travel disruptions likely on Sunday. Major snowstorm for Sunday/ Monday.
Snow to begin early Sunday and may persist into Monday night. 6 inches likely with 12 inches or more possible east of Rte. 287.
Snow day probability Monday better than 50%.
The storm may even retrograde back toward us after it has seemingly gone by.
2170
6 inches, to as much as 2 feet of snow, cannot be ruled out! ( Steve D. at NY NJ PA Weather.com )
Models and forecasters differ widely on the predictions.
2:20 pm
5, five, computer models now show major winter storm. They seem to agree on the outcome for the first time.
Western NJ may see much less snow, as you move closer to the coast, the snow totals will increase dramatically.
Storm may stall, prolonging snowfall into Monday.
Forecasting difficulties, plus the anticipated rapid intensification, means a clear picture may not emerge until Friday or even Saturday. But there has been a definite , sudden shift to a snowier weekend forecast, than was seen even as recently as Thursday morning.
Eastern regions and New England most likely to bear the brunt of the snowstorm. NYC and Long Island in the heavy snow zone. Immediate coast may see rain for a time.
Travel disruptions likely on Sunday. Major snowstorm for Sunday/ Monday.
Snow to begin early Sunday and may persist into Monday night. 6 inches likely with 12 inches or more possible east of Rte. 287.
Snow day probability Monday better than 50%.
The storm may even retrograde back toward us after it has seemingly gone by.
2170
A better picture of what will happen this weekend.
10:56 am UPDATE
I have to go with snow likely on Sunday, with central and southern NJ getting the most snow. The latest GFS brings the storm closer in toward us, hence snow is more likely now. How much????
I think that we can discard the idea of a major snowstorm for northern NJ. Coastal and southern NJ could see several inches. But, there will be snow in the air Sunday.
The various computer models have been inconsistent and it still continues that way.
Early morning Thursday update:
Right now, a near miss is the most likely outcome for Sun. Dec. 19th. The coast would see some snow, and the interior areas little if any.
Later today, around lunchtime, there should be a more certain outlook on what will happen Sunday. Forecast models are all over the board right now.
Another, smaller storm may occur a couple days later. If at first, you don't succeed, try, try, again.
Snow day probability for Monday: 50% ( revised Thursday afternoon )
2155
I have to go with snow likely on Sunday, with central and southern NJ getting the most snow. The latest GFS brings the storm closer in toward us, hence snow is more likely now. How much????
I think that we can discard the idea of a major snowstorm for northern NJ. Coastal and southern NJ could see several inches. But, there will be snow in the air Sunday.
The various computer models have been inconsistent and it still continues that way.
Early morning Thursday update:
Right now, a near miss is the most likely outcome for Sun. Dec. 19th. The coast would see some snow, and the interior areas little if any.
Later today, around lunchtime, there should be a more certain outlook on what will happen Sunday. Forecast models are all over the board right now.
Another, smaller storm may occur a couple days later. If at first, you don't succeed, try, try, again.
Snow day probability for Monday: 50% ( revised Thursday afternoon )
2155
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
One thing is sure, no big warm up in sight, just not as cold by Friday.
Not until Thursday afternoon, will there be an accurate picture of what will happen on Sunday, with a possible snowstorm developing at that time. We will stay cold but, it will not be as cold Friday and Saturday. Today, Wednesday, should be the last windy and very cold day.
5:00 pm update: 2 models show snow Sunday, if the others follow their lead, we are in snow business! And, let us not forget, that the winter season has not begun yet.
Snow day prob. for Monday 20%
2085
5:00 pm update: 2 models show snow Sunday, if the others follow their lead, we are in snow business! And, let us not forget, that the winter season has not begun yet.
Snow day prob. for Monday 20%
2085
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Who knows where or when?
A snowstorm Dec. 20th is more likely now, but, will it be Baltimore or Bangor?
Adam thinks we have a shot at 10 inches plus Sunday/ Monday.
A disturbance, now over eastern Siberia, will play a key role.
Snow day Prob. for 12 / 20 is 20%
2052
Adam thinks we have a shot at 10 inches plus Sunday/ Monday.
A disturbance, now over eastern Siberia, will play a key role.
Snow day Prob. for 12 / 20 is 20%
2052
Monday, December 13, 2010
Long Range Outlook: A beautiful snowstorm, apperars on the GFS model, today, for Dec. 20th, only a week away. Maybe this time it will happen for us in NJ.
The storm predicted at least 10 days in advance, did happen but Minn. and Wisc. got the snow. Our turn will come eventually, given the current weather pattern. Today will be mild and party sunny, enjoy.
The Euro. model ( ECMWF ) shows very cold to cold weather for NJ from today through Jan. 9th , 2011.
2010
The Euro. model ( ECMWF ) shows very cold to cold weather for NJ from today through Jan. 9th , 2011.
2010
Friday, December 3, 2010
Long Range Outlook (hint,hint.)
Snow day probability less than 2% ( so far )
Saturday night update:
On Nov. 27th I wrote: " the snows will miss us at first, but we have a chance for a snow about Dec. 12th" I just checked it myself.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
UK and Europe have worst winter blast in many years. Are we next?
Could this be our mid-December snowstorm?
Poland: eight men freeze to death in near zero temperatures. Yak sie masz?
Great Britain: air travel shut down or delayed. The same in Switzerland and Germany. Time for saurbratten, potato pancakes, red cabbage and hot mulled wine.
We will turn sharply colder tonight and the cold will remain through next week. A chance of light snow this weekend but most likely from central NJ and south from there.
Our next snow chance still looks like Dec. 12th. Plenty of cold on the long range maps, so far.
Skiers in the Western states are enjoying ample early snows.
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