NY,NJ,CONN, Metro in the bullseye for heavy snow and high winds.

*9:00 am steady snow in much of south Jersey and moving north.
10:00 am- moderate to heavy snow south Jersey , moving north.
As much as 2 feet of snow possible in some areas
11:30 am - Light flurries, Bergen Co., roads snow covered below Rte. 78.  Holland tunnel approach snow covered.
* steady heavier snow due by 2 pm, 12 to 18" expected, 40 to 50 mph wind gusts.  Many flights cancelled.
** 1,000 flights cancelled at area airports.  Local forecaster predicts 18 to 24" totals for much of NJ.
* 2 pm update: some forecasters predict 18" to 30 " totals, 35 to 55 mph winds, multiple accidents I-78, Newark area roadways.  Temps running 5 to 10 degrees colder than predictions, hence, higher snow totals,  thunderstorms appearing near Jersey shore, if you experience thunder you are in the most intense snow band.
* Blizzard warnings expanded to Hudson Valley, Conn. etc.  High winds big factor in storm.
* Heavy snow bands now moving in . Brick Twp. Heavy snow.  All will now move toward NYC metro area and beyond.
*** Storm expected to stall on NJ coast for 6 hours.  Snow amounts will increase rapidly during that time.***
* snow will continue until 8 am tomorrow.
* multiple accidents rte. 287.
* heavy snow bands now coming off the ocean , moving inland to north and west.  Snow will greatly intensify in the next couple of hours.
** bands are already in NYC metro extending down along Jersey shore, all moving from SE to NW.**
* Garden S. P. multiple accidents, 20 mph traffic.*
Snow intensity increasing in Bergen/ Passaic Co's.
**** Upton, NY, NWS office- has increased snow totals to 20" for a wide area.***
* winds to become strong and gusty around nightfall*
4:33 pm- very heavy snow band from Sandy Hook to Atlantic City,
Probably 2 or 3 inches per hour.

SNOW to begin in northern NJ, around noon.
High winds likely especially near the coast.
Storm moving closer to coast and may be stronger than forecast.
Storm is a triple phase storm making it ideal as a snowmaker.
Metro region to experience blizzard conditions, with the worst weather, after nightfall.
6:45 am: snowing aloft  now over parts of NJ,PA
7 am: very light snow,Cape May, NJ.
Banding during the storm, determines who gets the most snow. Banding is most likely from Burlington Co.up through Bergen Co.
*Moderate snow reported extreme southern NJ.
*** Snow breaking out in southeast NJ 7:50 am.***
Thundersnow possible later.
8 am- Atlantic City: light snow. Storm is now strengthening.
8:30 am snow moving up the NJ coast now, quickly.
** The storm may stall, just off NJ coast , for several hours, this makes NJ, ground zero, if that happens.**
9:00 Heaviest snow from Philadelphia, through south Jersey to Conn.  Philadelphia Eagles game will be in terrible weather.
9:05 am- Millville and A/C both reporting light snow.
* Heavy snow with winds gusting to 50mph expected in Nj and NY metro later today and tonight. Road closures likely.
Snow flurries as far south as the Florida pan handle.
Temps in the low 20's, lower than forecasts of 30 or above.
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BLIZZARD WARNING from Sunday to Monday!

... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 am Sunday to 6 PM EST
Monday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning... which is in effect from 6 am Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.
The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... northeast New Jersey... New York City and its
immediate suburbs... Long Island... and coastal and interior
southeast Connecticut.

* Hazards... heavy snow and strong winds... with considerable
blowing and drifting of snow and near zero visibility at times.

* Accumulations... 11 to 16 inches... with locally higher amounts
possible in heavier snow bands whose exact location is still too
early to determine. Snow may mix with or change to rain and
sleet at the height of the storm late Sunday night across
eastern Long Island... and possibly across coastal southeast
Connecticut... which could hold down amounts there... but only
after significant accumulations have already taken place.

* Impacts... extremely dangerous travel conditions developing due
to significant snow accumulations... and strong winds causing
considerable blowing and drifting of snow. Visibilities will be
near zero at times... with whiteout conditions expected. Strong
winds may also down some power lines... tree limbs... and
Christmas decorations.

* Timing... light snow will likely begin during Sunday
morning... then become heavy at times from late Sunday afternoon
into much of Sunday night. Light snows will likely linger into
Monday morning and possibly into Monday afternoon.

* Winds... .during the height of the storm Sunday night... north
winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 55
mph... highest across central and eastern Long Island.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong
winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.

Major winter storm will impact NJ Sunday night through Monday morning.

Snow develops by Sunday afternoon, becomes heavy snow Sunday night.  Travel disruptions seem likely. Windy, blowing and drifting snow overnight.

Monday early snow tapering off to snow showers, windy.

CAUTION: The forecasting of this complex and powerful storm has been extremely erratic.  Further changes, up or down , may occur.

IF, the GFS is right, all of NJ may get 1 to 2 feet. High winds near the coast expected.

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OMG! Can it be? SNOWMAGEDDON! Passaic CO. 16"?

I have to get some sleep!

Meteorologist states that he has never seen such chaos and then a complete turn around, in 35 years of work.

Late night computer runs showing a snowstorm to be looked at closely Christmas morning.

All bets are off, we have to look at this!  Snow more likely once again.

On again off again Finnegan. Where do we stand?

Friday lunchtime models leaning toward 6 " snow.  ?????? Now I don't think we may know until Saturday.


Weather Service officials announce that the computer models were fed erroneous data.  Therefore, the weather forecasts based on these computer runs, are also in error, quite possibly


The forecast data is corrupted and all the forecasts are uncertain.  The disturbances that could form the snowstorm Sunday, appear stronger than forecasted.  There is now a moderate chance for substantial snow Sun. & Mon. 


Belgium gets first white Christmas since 1964.  6 to 24 inches.


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A revolting development: late phasing carries the storm OTS.

There can be no avoiding it.  The Euro model just keeps grinding out "Snowmageddon Redux" again and again.  All that needs to be done, is to figure out how bad it will be.


Everything will be fine through Christmas day.  Sunday and Monday will be snowy .


A tough call for the forecasters because the storm must come together on Christmas night.  Then certainty sets in.


Yes, snow Sunday ( late ) and Monday!


Uh, but only snow showers. We still have a chance but, it is a lot slimmer than this morning.
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Trend seems to be more snow not less. The EURO model has the goods on this one.

Here is a worst case scenario, if you want to know.  Heavy snow from Norfolk to Allentown, Poughkeepsie, NYC, Long Island.  18" + snow.  60 to 70 mph winds at Jersey shore. Coastal flooding.  All travel shut down. Power outages.

Scary huh?  It could happen if it all pans out a la Euro.  The Euro computer is predicting that, the others are not.

Chinese restaurant Weather Forecasting.

Since the forecast models are predicting everything from sunny skies to an all out blizzard for Sunday to Tuesday, you may as well make your own forecast.


Choose one (1) from each group to make a forecast of your own.


Day: Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday


Skies  sunny  partly cloudy  mostly sunny cloudy


Temps.  cold  very cold


Wind speed 0-5,  5-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-50 mph.


Weather fair, trace snow, light snow, moderate snow, heavy snow, blizzard.


Total accumulation  0,1-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, 24-30 inches


Snow probability 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%


Then check your fortune cookie!


I can tell you that I have seen all of the above mentioned in various forecast dicussions.


My own take:


Snow begins Sunday, ends Monday, 3-6 inches likely, 6 to 12 inches or even more, possible.


Please do not be surprised if by tomorrow night you begin to hear absolutely hair raising forecasts.






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See that swirl of clouds approaching just to the left of southern California?

ORANGE UPDATE BELOW.

That is the late weekend storm.  Now, where is it going to go?

The map above is yesterdays' Euro, which caused much excitement. See that giant cinnamon bun next to NJ?

If, if, this proves out, it would produce very heavy snow combined with strong winds.  Christmas night is key, if the storm phases properly, our weather will be very wintry Monday and maybe even Tuesday as well.  If it does not phase we get little if any snow.  Kind of like an Alfred Hitchcock movie.

The NWS office in Binghamton, NY gives a 70% chance for snow Monday!  10 am discussion.

ECMWF predicts storm measured in feet not inches, other models differ.  Nj at ground zero.

photo:  Penn. State Univ. E wall

FORECAST BELOW.

Slow ball snowball coming our way? Still ?

Looking at the bottom line first, no snow Christmas Eve. nor  Christmas day.  Christmas night or the next day, Sunday, is when things may start to change. 

The Euro model shows a mighty storm coming up the coast but slower and later than forecast before.   But, some of the other models are swinging it out to sea.  We must be impressed by the Euro being so consistent on the track and intensity.

Once again, we need to wait to see if the models come in to agreement  today or tomorrow...maybe even later than that.

So far, here is the "uncertain outlook":


12/ 24 - partly cloudy, cold, breezy
12/ 25-  becoming cloudy, cold, breezy, slight chance of snow late
12/ 26- snow overspreading the region, cold, breezy, snow may become heavy late.
12/ 27- snow ( or, not!)


A tentative set of forecasts are being given.  Out to sea remains a possibility, also.


I still think a large storm will occur but, doubts are there.


By tomorrow, we should begin to get a much clearer picture.  The storm that will affect us is only now marching into California.


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Babe Ruth blizzard is coming up to bat. Will it be a home run or a swing and a miss? It could not look better......so far.

Local forecaster looks toward a 3 day Nor'easter.  Certainly not set in stone at this early point in time.  See NYNJPA Weather.com, Steve D.

The story won't be known until Wednesday late or Thursday.  It does get exciting to imagine these computer runs actually becoming  a reality. A nail biter once again.

The plot thickens. It looks like a perfect set up, so far.

Although it is not a done deal, here we go.


3 out of 4 forecast models, show a biggie snow storm  for Christmas weekend.  


 Euro goes over to epic snow storm.  The Euro. is the most reliable winter storm model. Unusual in the consistent runs calling for snow.  12 inch plus totals are in reach.


The 26th, Sunday, seems to be the day to watch now.


12/24  Partly cloudy, cold
12/25  Cloudy, snow develops late. Cold.
12/26  Heavy snow,cold,windy.
12/27  Snow and Snow showers then, clearing. Tuesday:windy,cold.


That is the best estimate for now.  Subject to change, of course. ( i.e. it goes out to sea )  I will let you know when it reaches certainty status.


The record setting rain and snow in California will play a role in our weather.  Look at Siberia -71 below zero today.


I am loving this.  A beautiful total lunar eclipse is visible in the northwestern sky,  with bright stars and a cold north wind blowing through the trees. The one in 1638 was better maybe.


12Z Euro came in at 2 pm.  It is all out blizzard time......so far!

from Penn. State U.  E wall.

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