NWS: ICE STORM WARNING! Later today and tomorrow.
Snow and sleet is less than expected in North Jersey this morning, part 2 of the storm comes in tomorrow, icing then plain rain, now seem possible, tomorrow. In general the storm is so far, underperforming, due to a upper level low, that unexpectedly formed over VA. This low had the effect of shutting off the precipitation in many areas.
Warmer air in South Jersey may move north. Only NW, NJ will get the snow and ice problems, the rest of NJ seems to be getting some ice then plain rain by tomorrow afternoon.
I am waiting for word from the forecasters as the new data comes in early this afternoon. So we have way less snow but still sleet and freezing rain tonight and early tomorrow. There could be a lot of rain later in the day, tomorrow. All of the forecasts are fragile and subject to change. Nowcasting is the way to go. See NY NJ PA Weather.com.
The freezing line will hover so close to Northern NJ that the ice or rain could fluctuate unexpectedly. Colder seems to be the trend.
Meanwhile a blizzard will rage in the plains states then on to Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo, Syracuse, Albany etc.
Snow possible for our area, this weekend, if it stays cold enough. The pattern has changed to a milder scenario, after we get rid of the cold air still here, the next couple of days. But, don't expect Spring , just yet. We may shift back to cold, later in February.
New York City is an unlikely place for an ice storm because of the geographical location, and the urban heat island effect, but it is not impossible.
The January 26th thaw I was looking for is here now, such as it is.
This all changed over the span of a few hours this morning. We were always just on the border of the freezing precip. and snow.
It is probably better to forecast snow and ice, and then, if it warms, we are off the hook.
