Sunday, January 6, 2013

Cold wave by the last part of January or will it be just a return to seasonal?

I don't believe the hints at severe cold for New Jersey, New York Metro around Jan. 20th.  The strong Pacific jet stream wind, a Southeast ridge and a PNA that is too far West means the cold air will struggle to get here.

Canada will experience extreme cold, but I doubt that it gets past New England.  We will see.

It is looking like the cold front will get hung up over the Eastern US, with  lots of stormy weather and a variety of frozen precip. and rain.  Some snow is possible along with ice.  All after this coming mild week.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

After looking over the situation here is my view.

January started out cold and this will continue for another day or two.  We will have a mild trend next week, ending in a rain storm followed by more seasonal cold. Stratospheric warming has begun and if it continues it will produce colder conditions, again. ( Jan. 17-22 looks cold)  There will be a couple of Great Lakes storms ahead and eventually one will be forced east toward the coast bringing us some snow later in January.

I do not expect a big snow in NJ this month.  The Pacific jet and a southeast ridge is working against us.  Most storms will cut to the Great Lakes as they have been doing.  The Rockies and upper Midwest are the best places for cold and snow.  It might turn cold for a time as we get near February.

More or less a mediocre winter with some snow/ice but usually rain.  We need a big ridge over the Western states and we are not getting that, so, no long cold waves for us.

This is what I can surmise from DT at Wxrisk, Steve D. at NYNJPA Weather and Accuweather's Henry M. and Elliot A.

Not a winter to get excited about on the East Coast, so far.  But then February is our snowiest month historically, so, who knows?

Update:  Some models are showing a cold outbreak around 2 weeks hence.

New York, New England: How Cold Was It?

New York, New England: How Cold Was It?

click here ^

A Warmup Is Coming, But Won't Last - Southern States Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com

A Warmup Is Coming, But Won't Last - Southern States Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com

click here ^