Thursday, November 14, 2013

First winter forecasts come in and they fall into 2 camps.

The weather service and others see a winter with the cold focused over the center of the country, which would give the east a variable winter with near normal temps and not very much snow.

The others see a blockbuster winter on the way.

The issue is whether there is a developing area of warm water in the western Pacific Ocean or not.  And weather the eastern end will remain on the cool side.

Signs of developments are good but until they become established fact, the variable winter camp has the best odds of proving to be correct.  Keep in mind that we have had drought conditions since the end of September and this may persist into the winter as well.

Monday, October 28, 2013

Europe blasted by 99 mph winds.

Great Lakes Area to get hammered.

FARTHER NORTH ON DAY 4/THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN... ***** A SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO/ RISK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY/NEARBY GREAT LAKES. ***

THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGLY FORCED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...(NOV1) THE STRONGEST UPPER TROUGH-ASSOCIATED ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD AWAY FROM THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...A MOIST AIRMASS/ ****VERY STRONG SHEAR **** COULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

A cold and snowy winter still appears likely according to several forecasters, but the opinions are not unanimous. Ocean temperatures have caused this forecast to take place. In about a month we should have a more certain outlook.