Southern Jersey gets snow dump!

   Cloverfields T 1030 am 12/08 trained spotter

New Jersey

... Atlantic County...
   Hammonton 5.2 433 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Mays Landing 3.5 332 PM 12/08 public
   Estell Manor 2.0 431 PM 12/08 co-op observer
   Pleasantville 0.3 138 PM 12/08 co-op observer
   Atlantic City airpor 0.3 137 PM 12/08 ASOS

... Burlington County...
   Medford 9.4 339 PM 12/08 public
   Southampton TWP 9.3 200 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Vincentown 9.0 402 PM 12/08 public
   Browns Mills 8.0 339 PM 12/08 public
   Marlton 8.0 348 PM 12/08 public
   Shamong TWP 6.4 349 PM 12/08 public
   Washington TWP 6.0 217 PM 12/08 public
   Moorestown 5.8 300 PM 12/08 public
   Mount Laurel 5.8 352 PM 12/08 NWS employee
   Maple Shade 5.5 234 PM 12/08 public
   Mount Holly WFO 5.0 300 PM 12/08 NWS office
   Hainesport 5.0 334 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Delran TWP 4.2 315 PM 12/08 NWS employee
   Bordentown 3.2 347 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   chesterfild TWP 2.5 333 PM 12/08 public

... Camden County...
   Lindenwold 8.5 403 PM 12/08 NWS employee
   Laurel Springs 8.3 352 PM 12/08 public
   Point of Woods 8.0 255 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Cherry Hill 8.0 401 PM 12/08 public
   1 N Pennsauken 7.5 410 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Runnemede 7.0 411 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Barrington 7.0 334 PM 12/08 public
   West Berlin 6.5 400 PM 12/08 public
   East Camden 6.0 335 PM 12/08 public
   Blackwood 6.0 145 PM 12/08 Emergency Mngr
   Collingswood 6.0 400 PM 12/08 public
   Somerdale 5.3 220 PM 12/08 co-op observer
   Erial 3.5 100 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Cape May County...
   Cape May Court House 1.0 348 PM 12/08 public
   North Cape May 0.3 211 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Cumberland County...
   Vineland 3.7 414 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Gloucester County...
   Deptford TWP 9.0 428 PM 12/08 public
   Mantua 8.3 327 PM 12/08 public
   Sewell 7.3 315 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   West Deptford TWP 7.0 335 PM 12/08 public
   East Greenwich TWP 7.0 339 PM 12/08 public
   Woodbury 7.0 230 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Turnersville 7.0 415 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Westville 6.1 417 PM 12/08 public
   Washington TWP 6.0 400 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   Thorofare 6.0 338 PM 12/08 public
   Williamstown 5.5 333 PM 12/08 public

... Hunterdon County...
   Lambertville 2.0 357 PM 12/08 public
   5 NNW Flemington 0.5 447 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Mercer County...
   Trenton 2.3 357 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   White Horse 2.0 359 PM 12/08 public
   Ewing 1.2 300 PM 12/08 NWS employee

... Monmouth County...
   wall TWP 2.5 356 PM 12/08 public
   Freehold 2.0 428 PM 12/08 public
   Oakhurst 1.5 303 PM 12/08 public

... Ocean County...
   Beachwood 9.0 421 PM 12/08 public
   Toms River 8.0 346 PM 12/08 public
   3 SSE Berkeley TWP 8.0 447 PM 12/08 cocorahs
   3 WSW Toms River 8.0 340 PM 12/08 cocorahs
   Berkeley TWP 8.0 437 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   N Toms River 7.5 344 PM 12/08 public
   Bayville 7.0 400 PM 12/08 public
   Lacey 6.5 359 PM 12/08 public
   S Toms River 6.0 427 PM 12/08 public
   Forked River 5.5 428 PM 12/08 public
   brick TWP 5.0 330 PM 12/08 public
   Manahawkin 5.0 327 PM 12/08 public
   Manchester TWP 4.0 334 PM 12/08 public
   Lakewood 3.3 431 PM 12/08 public
   Plumstead TWP 3.0 334 PM 12/08 public
   Surf City 2.3 300 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Salem County...
   Penns Grove 11.0 359 PM 12/08 public
   Carneys Point 6.0 155 PM 12/08 trained spotter
   upper Pittsgrove TWP 6.0 353 PM 12/08 public 

Sunday evening snow looks to accumulate from 1 to 3 inches area wide.

Overnight Sunday into Monday there will be a warming trend which will cause a wintry mix to change to plain rain on Monday.

Areas near New York City and the shore areas will see the least accumulations, in fact they may end up with only a coating.

The weather will turn quite cold later this week.  There is even a chance of more snow Tuesday.

Mostly rain today but Sunday could turn snowy and icy late in the day.

As is usual the forecasts are changing but travel after sunset on Sunday could be treacherous.
Click on the right for a detailed look. >>>>>>

There is the possibility of last minute developments Sunday which could alter the weather forecast for, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.  Check for the latest forecast, which will be adjusted as we get closer to Sunday night.

As of now it still looks like snow arrives around sunset on Sunday. The worst conditions will be in the overnight hours Sunday into very early Monday.

Preview of late Sunday?

This Sunday, 2 to 3 inches of snow is likely, maybe more North and West.

It will begin Sunday afternoon and continue into the evening. The first measurable snow for most of New Jersey.  This is based on the ECMWF model which has been showing this trend for days now.

New York City, mostly slush

Far north and west 6 inches or more.

Pennsylvania  6 inches plus.

There will be a sharp cold spell next week but not of long duration.

Today when the sun was shining it was spring but soon winter weather will begin again.

The next rain, snow, ice threat is December 9, 10. Stay tuned, we have a nice week coming up in the New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania weather outlook.

Click on any link on the right.

Rainfall totals

   Groton Airport 1.37 810 PM 11/27 ASOS

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
   Ramsey 3.68 400 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Allendale 3.28 300 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Park Ridge 3.25 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   Ridgewood 3.15 732 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Rivervale 3.15 623 PM 11/27 public
   Oakland 2.84 733 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Teterboro 2.68 700 PM 11/27 ASOS
   Lyndhurst 2.50 355 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Westwood 2.46 323 PM 11/27 mesonet

... Essex County...
   Cedar Grove 3.77 220 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Roseland 3.13 105 PM 11/27 public
   Essex Fells 2.96 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   1 se Cedar Grove 2.78 300 PM 11/27 mesonet
   1 NW Nutley 2.63 414 PM 11/27 mesonet
   1 W North Caldwell 2.54 400 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Newark Airport 2.48 700 PM 11/27 ASOS

... Hudson County...
   Harrison 3.09 400 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Kearny 2.95 500 PM 11/27 public

... Passaic County...
   Little Falls 3.35 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   1 WNW West Paterson 3.30 301 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Wayne 3.28 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   Ringwood 2.76 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   West Milford 2.64 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge 

Pre Thanksgiving storm is shaping up, but models differ.

Coastal New Jersey will undoubtedly see a rain event but from Sussex County and into the Poconos there seems to be substantial snow ahead.

Sunday afternoon should see the different models come into agreement.  Right now it is anything from out to sea to a warm rain.

From wxrisk.com, the Euro precip totals.  Very wet and far enough west, white. Much of NJ gets 3 inches of rain.

Meanwhile the GFS is out to sea.

I think we will see at least an inch of rain, with far NW New Jersey getting several inches of snow, with elevation.  The Poconos and Catskills will get a major snow.

With only 2 weeks left to go, this is the driest autumn on record.

First winter forecasts come in and they fall into 2 camps.

The weather service and others see a winter with the cold focused over the center of the country, which would give the east a variable winter with near normal temps and not very much snow.

The others see a blockbuster winter on the way.

The issue is whether there is a developing area of warm water in the western Pacific Ocean or not.  And weather the eastern end will remain on the cool side.

Signs of developments are good but until they become established fact, the variable winter camp has the best odds of proving to be correct.  Keep in mind that we have had drought conditions since the end of September and this may persist into the winter as well.

Europe blasted by 99 mph winds.

Great Lakes Area to get hammered.

FARTHER NORTH ON DAY 4/THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN... ***** A SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO/ RISK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY/NEARBY GREAT LAKES. ***

THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGLY FORCED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...(NOV1) THE STRONGEST UPPER TROUGH-ASSOCIATED ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD AWAY FROM THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...A MOIST AIRMASS/ ****VERY STRONG SHEAR **** COULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

A cold and snowy winter still appears likely according to several forecasters, but the opinions are not unanimous. Ocean temperatures have caused this forecast to take place. In about a month we should have a more certain outlook.

The sunspot count is very low and is prompting some to expect a colder winter ahead.

Some good color already is found in Vermont , especially far north. Some forecasters are already calling a winter forecast, but it is too early to give them much credibility.