FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST

This winter appears to be a typical wild ride with wide swings in temperature and types of precipitation. There will be 2 main storm tracks, one toward the Great Lakes region ( not a snowmaker for NJ. ) and the other track is the coastal storm track, which can cause major snow. Right now, it looks like the Great Lakes track will predominate. So, the winter will average out mild to near normal. The Midwest will usually get the most snow and cold.

All this appears to be the result of an El Nino which will be just strong enough to spare the Northeast from a brutal winter.. But there will be storms , wind,rain and snow aplenty. You just won't be shoveling it all winter long.


Having said that, after a storny Wednesday and Thursday, we will have colder weather settling in this Saturday and for the next 7 to 10 days afterward. The mild days of November are about to become only a memory, at least for a while. Remember, winter is just starting. A major cold air invasion will hit Canada late this week. This could lead to a very cold outbreak here in mid- December.

My winter forecast will be updated just before Christmas, because there definitely are mixed signals on the upcoming winter.

As famed weather historian David Ludlum once said, " The weather will always surprise you! " .

Thanksgiving, weather shifts gears.

Fairly mild November weather for a few more days, then wet cooler conditions develop.Chance of rain Mon. and Tues.

Thanksgiving

Partly cloudy, chance of pm showers, turning colder.

Black Friday mostly cloudy, cold some showers/ snow flurries.

Dec 2,3 rain followed by colder weather.

Snow likely in upstate New York Friday.

Mostly sunny week ahead

Monday will be mild with the remainder of the week being mostly to partly sunny with temps in the 50's. But then, last week was supposed to be quiet also and we wound up with a Nor'easter that pounded the Jersey shore.

GLOBAL WARMING CONTINUES

World-wide the month of September was the 5th warmest on record. But not here.

TWO Schools of thought on the upcoming winter.

Most long range forecasters are looking for a cold, snowy winter. The opposing view ( somewhat ) is that a fairly strong El Nino,is going to cause a split jetstream, giving us a widely variable winter , with more wet than white.

I will make my own winter forecast after Thanksgiving.

SIBERIA UPDATE

Verhoyansk, Russia - 47 below zero

No big weather events here for at least a week, little or no rain.,with just a little maybe Wednesday.

One computer model shows a powerful Noreaster for Wed. and Thurs. this week, the other shows nothing. Which to believe?


RAIN/SNOW possible Nov. 22

Seasonably chilly and partly cloudy all week and probably into next weekend.

November is winter weather forecast month. During this time, the pattern for the coming winter becomes more clear.

Fair then rain mid-week, rain again Friday into Saturday. The flu is bad, unusual, but not a superbug. But you want to avoid it if you can.

Indiam summer ends, clouds and rain move in tommorow and Saturday.

Since we had a heavy frost last Monday the weather on Thursday qualifies as Indian summer.

Friday will turn cloudy and cooler with rain at night continuing into Saturday. Clearing and seasonal on Sunday.

Long range is for a good shot of rain the first half of next weekend. If a noreaster develops as some models indicate, the whole weekend for Halloween could be a washout.

Beautiful work week but rain Friday and Saturday

Saturday dawned bright and hopeful but now here comes the rain again. Time for some hot oatmeal.

The current stretch of no sunspots is now 15 days. For 2009, the total is 227 days. CreditL Spaceweather.com

I hate to tell you this but, it is hot soup and coffee weather.

The whole weekend is cloudy,chilly and wet. The best weather we will be able to come by will be a few hours of no rain. Areas that received snow will continue to do so.

Worse than that , next weekend does not look good either. Tuesday and Wednesday next week will be the best days.

Let's not get into the weekend after next. The cold season ahead continues to shape up as weather with plenty of chill,rain,snow and storminess in general.

2009 H1N1 Flu: Situation Update

October 16, 2009, 3:00 PM ET

11 teenage deaths this week.

U.S. Situation Update

Weekly Flu Activity Estimates

U.S. Patient Visits Reported for Influenza-like Illness (ILI)

U.S. Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by Regions
Reported by Regions." border="0" height="90" width="165">

U.S. Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated Hospitalizations and Deaths from October 4 to October 10, 2009

International
Situation Update

Map of International
Activity Estimates
(Including 2009 H1N1 Flu)

Key Flu Indicators

October 9, 2009, 2:00 PM

Each week CDC analyzes information about influenza disease activity in the United States and publishes findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView. During the week of September 27 - October 3, 2009, a review of the key indictors found that influenza activity increased in the United States. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

• Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) continued to increase in the United States, and overall, are higher than levels expected for this time of the year.

• Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed influenza are higher than expected for this time of year for adults and children. And for children 5-17 and adults 18-49 years of age, hospitalization rates from April – October 2009 exceed average flu season rates (for October through April).

• The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and now exceeds what is normally expected at this time of year. In addition, 19 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 16 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1 and 3 were unsubtyped influenza A and likely to be 2009 H1N1. A total of 76 laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1 pediatric deaths have been reported to CDC since April.

• Thirty-seven states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming. Any reports of widespread influenza activity in September and October are very unusual.

• Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far are 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir with rare exception.

More on the Situation

• Past Situation Updates

Old man winter gives us a preview of things to come.

light SNOW REPORTED IN HOPATCONG, NJ AT 12:30 PM. Also West Milford,Vernon.

1:40 pm Wayne, NJ has wet snow flakes mixing in with the rain.
5:40 pm temp is 38 degrees with snow and rain mixed.

Any accumulation should occur at night with about 1 inch in the higher elevations.

Snow possible in NJ Highlands Thursday night.

That is right so watch out Vernon and West Milford, about 1 inch of snow is possible,Thursday night.

Put your leaf peeping on the fast track.

Beautiful Autumn weather today will be followed by a couple of windy , rainy days. The weekend does not look good and interior Pennsylvania might even see some high elevation snow on the weekend. Tobyhanna look out!

I noticed that many trees have dropped their leaves in West Milford, so the time to leaf watch is now. Spotty frost this morning along with mid 30's temps, will bring on the color rapidly. Hopefully the expected winds won't blow down the leaves first.

Another Accuweather meteorologist is calling for a cold, snowy winter. Lots of acorns this year is an old sign for a tough winter ahead. Watch out!

The lack of sunspots continues, with a 13 day streak of no sunspots. As stated before, a lack of sunspots is associated with cooler climactic conditions, at least in the opinion of some experts.

Mount Washington, New Hampshire, report

12 °F

Light Snow Grains Blowing Snow Freezing Fog

Bring in your Begonias this weekend, before the chill hits next week. FROST Alert !

PATCHY FROST SUNDAY NIGHT !!!

The Chinese are right, America will never get its' financial house in order.

Things are not only as bad as I thought but worse. It is on BM's webpage.

Did you know that not one CEO attended Obama's address to Wall Street? They know that they are above everyone. No matter how badly they screw up, the taxpayer will bail them out.

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10092009/watch.html

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10092009/watch.html