Gradually less cold then, maybe snow next weekend.

Three computer models show a coastal storm sometime next weekend. Snow or a wintry mix is a possibility still but, much too far away to gas up the snowblowers, just yet. This one might also slide out to our south.

The week is dry except for a slim chance of very light snow Tuesday night/ Wednesday.

Southern NJ did get a few inches of snow and even Long Branch got a coating Saturday. Atlantic City airport had 8 inches.

Arctic front crossing New Jersey.

@2:45 pm the arctic front is crossing New Jersey. It will pass over norteast NJ in the next 1 to 2 hours. Snow showers or snow squalls are approaching. While it may snow hard for a brief time, clearing will soon follow. A coating of new snow may make travel hazardous.

Windy and much colder air will follow in the wake of the Arctic front.

Very cold and windy this weekend. The snow storm to our south could move far enough north to give us just a little snow Saturday. South Jersey could see some accumulating snow.

Tue,Wed. chance of light snow. Not as cold.

Next weekend, major snow possible. Very iffy at this point.

Another Arctic outbreak could occur the following week.

Polar Vortex

On the map provided by the University of Wyoming, we can see the polar vortex. with a center of circulation, near Russia and a high pressure center, near Alaska. This is the 10 mb. map.

Accuweather's Elliot Abrams points out that such a configuration serves as a signal for cold weather in the lower latitudes. See Elliot Abrams blog for Feb. 1st. for a closer look at the polar vortex on ACCUWEATHER.COM.

Heavy snow showers snarl traffic.

It was not supposed to be this way, this morning, but, we will be getting heavy snow showers with accumulations of a coating to an inch. More snow showers or squalls this afternoon or evening, with some light accumulations are possible.

The snow moving across Pennsylvania last night, should have weakened as it came down from the mountains to the coast. It didn't. Accuweather .com states that some warm moist air to our south moved up overhead and caused the snow burst.

After a lull, more snow will move through this afternoon.

Turning very cold tonight and tomorrow. We will be visited by the polar vortex this weekend. Brrrr!

This makes me wonder if the snow will really miss us Saturday.

Snow will miss our area and move to our South. Again.

If at first you don't succeed try, try again.

Plenty of cold air, will keep the storm away from northern NJ, this weekend. Just about all the forecast models seem to be in agreement, so far. Here is hoping that things do not shift to the north again.

We have at least two more chances for snow over the next 10 days. THINK SNOW!

Too cold to snow? Not really, but this time it looks like that old saying will apply.

Mild then cool, then cold, then snow?? Very cold weekend.

Is the forecast uncertain? You better believe it.

TUESDAY UPDATE:

Turning colder as the week goes on. That is the part, that we can rely on.

Light snow is likely Fri. / Sat. But, it is not guaranteed. The NWS rates our chances at 40 to 50 %.

Heavy snow is possible, especially for southern areas, toward Philadelphia. As usual , the only certainty, is that things will be uncertain.

The questions in the forecast, will remain for another day or two, at least.

Think snow!

More cold will follow, this weekend. The polar vortex, now has two centers of circulation. This often serves as a signal, for cold weather down the road; according to a previous report by Accuweather's Elliot Abrams.

Siberia Update for Monday:

- 70 below zero. At Ojmajakon, Russia. A town in northeastern Siberia,below the Arctic Circle.

Stormy overnight and Monday morning. Very mild.

Heavy rain and wind will develop overnight,with a soggy commute tomorrow morning.

It will cool down later in the week with even a chance of snow on the weekend.

February is our snowy month and it looks like snow and cold will head our way next month.

Mild ,wet Sunday and Monday, then winter returns later next week.

We are nearing the end of our thaw and will switch back to cold weather, until further notice.

A big shot of warm rain begins Sunday, ending by Monday afternoon. A flash flood watch is up for expected 1 & 1/2 to 2 & 1/2 inches of rain.

Things will cool down by the middle of next week.

No big storms on the horizon next week, but things could change, by the time Groundhog Day arrives.

The big California storm, set record low barometer readings there and will bring us rain Sunday.

Snow will miss our area and move to our South.

February is snow month for New Jersey, so, be patient.

Forecasters are speculating that February will see a return of cold weather. Accuweather.com has more.

Snow still possible Friday. A real close call on this one.

Since the Canadian model, has done pretty well in forecasting snow this winter, and it shows snow for NJ, for Friday, I will go with that forecast.

Accuweather.com and Joe Bastardi still call for snow Friday, also.

The GFS has even moved the snow up toward us a little closer, than previously.

So, it looks like some snow for us, this Friday. 1 to 3 inches is still a good guess.

Let's see what happens. Will it be a hit....or a miss????

You could always toss a coin and make a forecast that way too.

Chance of snow Thursday night and Friday.

We are on the northern edge but, a couple of inches is possible. About 1 to 3 inches. Southern NJ is most likely to see the snow.

This is not a major snow.

After the next rainstorm , Sunday and Monday, we will go back to cold weather.

SIBERIA UPDATE

The forecast for Sunday calls for a low temperature of -88 below zero !

Accuweather February outlook

Accuweather expects February to see a return to cold weather. A weakening El Nino is a key factor in their forecast.

While I would not bet a lot of money on it, their forecasts have been more accurate than most.

Joe Bastardi explains in his video on the Accweather.com website.

I expect a late spring because that has been a trend here, in recent years.

Winter weather advisory for Sussex and NJ Highlands

Freezing rain, sleet , snow with up to 4 to 5 inches of accumulation overnight. Hazardous travel expected.

A mix of rain and ice may fall during the day but falling temperatures this evening will produce all snow and ice overnight.

Sussex, Warren, Morris and upper Passaic counties will be affected.

Other areas will see almost all rain. But don't count on it.

Past experience has shown that you will be making your own weather as you go, so check conditions closely before venturing out.

Mostly rain Sunday, not as cold next week.

We could see snow and ice at the very start of the morning on Sunday, then rain. Maybe some snow or ice again at night. The highlands have the best chance for snow/ice, as usual.

Next week will be not as cold as this week, but also, not as mild, as first appeared earlier this week.

Plenty of storms headed our way the next 2 weeks, one of which could bring in some mild air.

Tricky forecast for Sunday. Snow or Rain?

Only 12 hours ago, rain seemed almost certain for Sunday. Now, things are dicey for Sunday. The best bet is that the farther inland you are and the greater your elevation, the more likely a wet snow could accumulate. 3 to 6 inches would not be ruled out.

Another nail biter forecast. Stay tuned for the latest developments.

Forecast below, for what it is worth.