WE ARE NOT DONE YET.

Everybody is waiting for the results of the Sunday night computer runs.  It could be huge or hugely disappointing.  Most likely I now think we are looking at 6 to 10 inches.  Conn. RI, Mass. seem to be in the  bullseye.  Northeast NJ could be too!

A 20 hour storm with about 10 hours of moderate to heavy snow, falling mostly overnight Tues. & Wed.

Although this storm does not fit the mold of a major snowstorm in some ways, that does not mean that we can't get a foot of snow out of it.

Snow likely Late Tuesday into Wed. and accumulations will likely be moderate but, the door is still open for higher amounts.

SUNDAY UPDATES


Radar and satellite pix show a potent storm taking shape, it could indeed produce blizzard conditions here Tuesday night, depending on the track and intensity.  Storms like this will give someone a lot of snow.

One model is cranking out these numbers:

Philadelphia 17"
JFK 12" +
White Plains 25"

LOCAL MET., STEVE D., EXPECTS 10" + FOR NORTHEAST NJ.

The Tuesday/ Wednesday storm could produce 4" to 10" snows , if it swings up the coast. The way things have gone this winter, we will probably get only 24 to 48 hours notice on exactly what may happen.


Tuesday- snow late.
Tuesday night- snow, possibly heavy, hazardous travel.
Wednesday- snow early then tapers off to snow showers.


My estimate: 4 to 8 inches,  ...worst case scenario 15"

3521

Light snow or....a blizzard?

UPDATE 4pm:  Confidence is increasing for snow, possibly very significant amounts, for Tue. & Wed.  It is felt that there should be a better handle on what to expect when the forecasts come out Sunday or Sunday night.


The possibility of double digit snow depths, along with blowing and drifting snow, Tuesday night and Wednesday exists, especially for more eastern areas.


Arguing against this scenario is that 2 storm centers will not phase together properly to give a heavy snow event.  But the overall pattern is ripe for yet another major storm.  Time will tell.


Bottom line: yes it will snow Tue. & Wed.

Early estimate by a met. who believes an intense low may develop.

Snow begins late Tues. 11th, becomes heavy overnight, continues into Wed. then tapers off late Wed.

Light snow today, probably more coming......real winter.

There will be light snow today, mostly this afternoon and evening.  About 1 inch here and more south.

The weather models, continue to have more than the usual difficulty in predicting, especially more than 48hrs. ahead.

Tuesday and Wednesday are the days to watch, for possibly another 5 or 10 inches of snow. Mixing with sleet & freezing rain near the coast could happen as well.  AccuWeather thinks 6"+ is likely.

One thing is certain, the cold snowy pattern is not yet changing. The Polar Vortex is all the way into the USA ! Unusual.

3446

10 pm update:  Some light snow possible Saturday with the highest amounts to our south.


1 pm update: 3 1/2" snow on the ground, still snowing but lightly. Heavier snow is now to our north and east.  


Storm next week is still on the menu. Tuesday it begins late, and snow gets heavy Wednesday, ending by Thursday morning. It could be a deep, heavy, snow. Mixing may occur especially in the coastal I-95 corridor. Still 5 days away, which is too far ahead.

Snow today, a chilly break this weekend, then, a storm brews for Tuesday.

11 am update: Very unstable air over NJ will support continued snow today.  Accumulations look good and may even need to be revised upward.




Snow is moving in at dawn and will continue at a heavier rate later today. 3 to 6 inches seems most likely, although higher amounts could occur in northeast NJ.


There are ominous signs of a major winter storm early next week.  Another 1 to 2 feet of snow is feasible but not yet in the forecasts, for next Tuesday and Wednesday.


3388

10 pm:  Snow approaching eastern PA.

6pm update: snow begins lightly before dawn, steady snow develops from 9am to 12 pm, tapers off late afternoon to snow showers.  3" to 6" in most places.

Heaviest snow seems to center on NYC and Long Island.

Northeast NJ will see 3 to 8 inches depending on how close you are to NYC.  Nowcast is the word for tomorrow, since even a small shift in the snow band will cause a big difference in how much snow you get. A foot of snow is possible but not expected at this time.

The weatherman's dilemma is this, if you forecast showers in the summer but get a heavy downpour instead, it all runs down the storm drain.  In winter, people must shovel that extra precipitation.

Tuesday the storm may go out to sea, if not 6" to 12" + is possible.  All or nothing at all !

3324

NAM forecast model shows 6" for NE New Jersey.

Lesser amounts to the south.  The forecast calls for the heaviest snow to run from Long Island into SE New York, with 12"+ totals possible.  Just barely missing NJ!


 Storm for next Tuesday is still on, but the track is not certain.  A major storm is POSSIBLE then.


3305

Snow Friday and into Saturday but the forecasts remain unusually uncertain.

The Wed. afternoon model runs may tell the weather forecasters what to expect.  Anywhere from 3" to as much as 10" is possible.

I would bet on 6" right now for northern NJ.

Snow likely next Tuesday.

Latest GFS snow estimate for Friday.

Snow begins 7 am Friday ends Saturday night.  6" to 10".  That is the best guess, so far, but this will change again most likely.  It is a fairly small area of deep snow and we are just about in the middle of it.  More, much more to come next week again, possibly.  Unbelievable!


3215

UH OH! Here comes a storm on 7th and 8th courtesy of the EURO! Can it be happening AGAIN?

This could be chapter 2 of "The Endless Winter".


Another 2 footer?  Nah. Never happen.  Gulp!


2 pm update:  Looks like 6" for NYC area.  Many ups and downs to come until we figure it out maybe on Wednesday.  There are 2 more storms after this one and any one of them could be major.


Possibly the coldest January since 1985, is predicted by AccuWeather long range forecaster, Joe Bastardi.
 11pm update:  mostly a miss for NYC area, only light snow.  But this forecast will change 2 or 3 times each day.

3111.

January will get as cold as in the days of yore. Near zero to below zero temperatures will be widespread, later this month.

Snowfall is likely Friday and Saturday but, this time New England will get the heavy snow.  NJ will miss the worst of it, most likely.  The forecasts will be fine tuned Tuesday or Wednesday, and do not be surprised if a big change develops.  Wait and see is the best policy.

  Today will be the last mild day for some time to come.  Fog, " the snow eater " is rapidly melting the snowpack today.  A return of the cold air begins Sunday night and tomorrow.

There are growing indications that the remainder of the winter will be colder and perhaps snowier than average.  A turn to mild, as originally forecasted by many, is growing much less likely.  There is talk already of a truly cold spell of weather ahead.

All this is due to a major stratospheric warming which causes cold weather here in the northeast.  The latest forecast, for the extended temperature outlook, is for all lower 48 states to run below normal!  A cross Polar wind flow may set up which brings us our coldest weather.  " Siberian Express"?


3071