Head for the supermarket, pronto !

Winter Storm Watch Tuesday & Wednesday.

Official notice can be read below.

NY NJ PA Weather expects 4" to 8" of snow , plus 1/2 " of ice over much of  Northern NJ.  


Tuesday it will be snowing early in the morning and continue for much of the day. Icing will follow.


 Travel not recommended from late Tuesday into Wednesday. Major icing problems are likely.

Latest weather data is in........forecast......snow! Ice! Freezing rain! Rain!

Meteorologists are intrigued by the latest forecast model predictions.

Snow after midnight Monday
Tuesday, snow mixing with ice in the afternoon
Wednesday snow/sleet / freezing rain/rain/ drizzle ends.


Something for everyone. 
NOAA predicts Passaic County 7" snow 0.37" ice
                                                                  
 Bergen,Union Counties  5" snow 0.26" ice by Wednesday


Orange County, NY 12"


But there are other predictions of 5 to 9 inches.


PA, from Mason Dixon Line up to Rte. 80 serious icing hazards.


Forecasts will be changing several times between now and Wed.


Oh, I almost forgot, snow Saturday.


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*************************
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

..A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...SNOW TUESDAY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO A
HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND
SLEET CONTINUES MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

AccuWeather.com Predicts Category 5 Blizzard in the Mid-West !

Another Blizzard? Again?


Nam predicts 6" to 12" from Raritan River and North. This is the most extreme of the forecasts, but snow, sleet, and ice seem more likely to occur than rain.


So, the original idea of 5" to 10" followed by ice, rain , drizzle may not be too far from what may happen.  Still too early to make a final call for North Jersey.

Eastern PA likely to see serious icing problems, parts of NJ as well, but it is too early for details.


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George Carlin "Hippy Dippy Weatherman"

AccuWeather.com - Astronomy | We Can Expect Brilliant Northern Lights in Early February

AccuWeather.com - Astronomy | We Can Expect Brilliant Northern Lights in Early February

The Passaic River has not seen such wintry conditions in many years. See photo below.

" Don't you worry, if the Arctic ice melts, we can move to Passaic."

Looking at the latest forecasts I see snow, moderate snow changing to light snow, mixed with heavy snow and sleet, then back to snow or freezing rain, sleet, freezing rain, rain, mixed snow and sleet, rain, snow, sleet, freezing snow mixed with sleet, snow changing to sleet, freezing rain to plain rain changing back to snow or sleet.


I hope that clears it up.  You might say the weather is in a state of flux.  I have a headache.


Weather outlook:
Tues. , snow begins, light accumulation


Tues. night, snow mixes with sleet, freezing rain 3" to 6" accumulation, ice accumulation 1/4 to 1/2 inch.  Northwest Jersey gets the most snow,ice.  Very hazardous driving.


Wed., icy mix to plain rain.  NYC changes over quickly, other areas NW, get more hours of ice&snow.


Thurs., clearing, colder


The forecast above is fragile and subject to change!  Check the latest official NWS forecast!

OH. OH!  The NWS is sending recon. flights out over the Pacific Ocean to gather extra data, Sunday and Monday. They only take this extra measure if they suspect that a big storm may strike in a couple of days.  They need data now, before the storm makes land, in order to know what they are dealing with.  It is like the Hurricane Hunter flights to the tropics, only this time, for an impending winter storm.  Not a good sign if you don't like snow!  


What a winter. New forecast Sunday afternoon or Monday.  Stay tuned.


P.S. I suspended my newspaper delivery for Tues.,Wed.,Thurs. I will be in my snow bunker those days.


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Long duration event next week, mostly snow, then a mix.

The weekend snow showers , light snow Saturday
Sunday mostly fair, cold.


All forecasts are put on hold because of doubts on the storm(s). Check back Sunday late afternoon.

Next week: Tues. Snow begins
WED., snow or mix
Thurs., snow or mix ends early then clearing

HOW MUCH you ask?

Most likely: 5" to 10" snow, with a little ice, fr. rain, drizzle at end.

Also possible: major ice storm, widespread damage, downed trees and powerlines.
or
icy mix changes over to rain
or
10" to 15" + all snow


Worst case scenario: 20" to 30" snow.  Unlikely but still, possible. As of last night the #1 analog is the January 1996 storm.  AKA , Blizzard of '96.

Winter taking a break?

A WARMING TREND may take place in another 10 to 14 days.  The stratosphere is cooling, which is a warm signal, and the NAO is shifting to positive or at least, a neutral configuration. Whether this will be a lasting change or not remains to be seen.


The sun angle is getting higher and on Feb. 10th, it will be as high as it is on October 31st. This will increase the heating ability of the sun's rays.  Trees will begin to show a circle of melted snow around the base of the trunk, on the south side,  especially.   This is one of the first signs of a returning Spring.


You also may notice that house plants near a window, begin to show signs of new growth.

The winter that keeps going and going and going....

Some light snow or snow showers this weekend, more snow next week right around Groundhog Day.   Next week, look for about 5 to 10 inches of snow with some ice mixed in, ending with a little rain or drizzle.


According to NYNJPA Weather.com a stronger snowstorm is possible next week.  Stay tuned.


Do we have to say that it will be cold?


MOOSE REPORT: On his walk this morning, Mr. Moose was smelling everything, a sign of snow.  Before the walk ended, a steady light snow began to fall.

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The show is over but more snow is waiting in the wings.

Snow showers possible later on today, mostly in the hills north and west.

There may be another 1 to 3 inches this weekend and a more significant storm may appear next week.  According to NY NJ PA WEATHER.com there is a risk for a 3" to 6" snow between this Friday night and early next Monday.


 A Groundhog Day snow and ice storm is possible.  Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, may be  our next snow, ahead of another Arctic air mass.  Another low pressure system from the Gulf of Mexico will follow the long arc up the coastline, carrying ample moisture with it.


At this very early look, it would be 5" to 10" of snow, on the ground, when the storm exits on Wednesday.  Ice could be a problem with next week's storm.


Ordinarily,  being almost a week away,  such a possibility could be dismissed as remote, but look at how things have played out this winter.  There is a strong possibility for a major winter storm next week, again.


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Forecasts for snow totals just keep going up.

NYC 8" to 14".  Northeast NJ 8" to 12".  Some locations already have 12" on the ground.