Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM, THURSDAY!
Strongest winds will occur Wednesday night into very early Thursday.
High winds possible Wednesday. Caution!
Upton:
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WED INTO WED EVENING...
THEN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVOLVE MAINLY LATE WED
NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF /90-100 KT AT 900 MB/
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND NEARBY WATERS
AND SWINGS NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NYC METRO ON EAST. WHILE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SFC-BASED INVERSION WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
INHIBIT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ON SEVERAL POINTS...INCLUDING A STRONG
ENOUGH LLJ PER LOCAL RULE OF THUMB...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
VIA PRECIP DRAG IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DUCTED GRAVITY WAVE DEVELOPMENT AS A MID LEVEL JET
STREAK RIDING UP THE MID ATLC COAST PASSES THE INFLECTION POINT OF
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...AND AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE LOW LEVELS TOPPED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Special Briefing from NWS, Mt. Holly Office
Executive Summary
• A Winter Storm is expected in our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow. • Snowfall amounts will be in the one to four inch range with higher amounts more likely closer to the Atlantic Coast.
• This is expected to be a dry type of snow. • Cold temperatures will continue across the area through the weekend, with a warming trend beginning Monday. • Tides will not be an issue with this event. • Given the relatively low snowfall amounts, this is the last briefing package for this event. If the threat of heavier snowfall should develop, briefing packages will resume. • For the latest forecast & warning information, monitor our website at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
• A Winter Storm is expected in our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow. • Snowfall amounts will be in the one to four inch range with higher amounts more likely closer to the Atlantic Coast.
• This is expected to be a dry type of snow. • Cold temperatures will continue across the area through the weekend, with a warming trend beginning Monday. • Tides will not be an issue with this event. • Given the relatively low snowfall amounts, this is the last briefing package for this event. If the threat of heavier snowfall should develop, briefing packages will resume. • For the latest forecast & warning information, monitor our website at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Special Briefing from NWS on Jan. 25 storm. From Mt. Holly, NJ office. Applies to NJ south and west of New York Metro.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
click on link ^ ^ ^
Executive Summary
• A Winter Storm may affect our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. •Based on current model trends, the Friday afternoon commute could be problematic. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow in most places, with perhaps some sleet mixing in with the snow in the far south.
• Too early to forecast snowfall amounts, but the speed and direction of this storm suggests a plow-able snow, but nothing extreme. •This should be more of a dry snow rather than a wet snow. •Quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much snow might fall from this event. Stay tuned for future updates.
•Cold temperatures will continue across the area on Saturday and Sunday, with a warming trend beginning Monday. •Tides will not be an issue with this event. •Other notes:
•Very cold temperatures can be expected into Friday. Brisk west to northwest winds will drive wind chill values below zero in many areas tonight.
click on link ^ ^ ^
Executive Summary
• A Winter Storm may affect our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. •Based on current model trends, the Friday afternoon commute could be problematic. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow in most places, with perhaps some sleet mixing in with the snow in the far south.
• Too early to forecast snowfall amounts, but the speed and direction of this storm suggests a plow-able snow, but nothing extreme. •This should be more of a dry snow rather than a wet snow. •Quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much snow might fall from this event. Stay tuned for future updates.
•Cold temperatures will continue across the area on Saturday and Sunday, with a warming trend beginning Monday. •Tides will not be an issue with this event. •Other notes:
•Very cold temperatures can be expected into Friday. Brisk west to northwest winds will drive wind chill values below zero in many areas tonight.
School Day Forecast for Friday
The roads will be fine in the morning. Maybe an hour before lunch, the snow begins falling lightly. The kids are all excited, constantly gazing out the window. They keep asking if they will be sent home early. You tell them, probably not.
Then, just after lunch, it begins snowing furiously. But it is already too late to close school early. The kids keep asking why can't they go home. You can't get anything done because they are too antsy.
Finally, the dismissal bell rings. But the principal announces that all staff must remain until the late buses pick up the rest of the kids.
At long last, about 30 minutes later, you go out to your car. There is about 4 inches of fresh snow on the ground. The roads are a nightmare and it takes three hours to get home.
At last you are home and can sit down and relax. You glance out the window so you can enjoy the falling snow. You see that it has just stopped snowing.
Hope you have a nice day, Friday.
Then, just after lunch, it begins snowing furiously. But it is already too late to close school early. The kids keep asking why can't they go home. You can't get anything done because they are too antsy.
Finally, the dismissal bell rings. But the principal announces that all staff must remain until the late buses pick up the rest of the kids.
At long last, about 30 minutes later, you go out to your car. There is about 4 inches of fresh snow on the ground. The roads are a nightmare and it takes three hours to get home.
At last you are home and can sit down and relax. You glance out the window so you can enjoy the falling snow. You see that it has just stopped snowing.
Hope you have a nice day, Friday.
" The weather will always surprise you!" - David Ludlum, weather historian.
This quote is from David Ludlum, as spoken at a weather weenie conference. He published many fascinating books on weather history, during his lifetime.
Forecasters are in a dilemma this morning because one weather model shows a weak, fast moving storm. The other model, the Euro, shows a much more vigorous storm.
The GFS is saying maybe an inch or less. The Euro gives central NJ, 12". Big difference.
The Euro has been more consistent and is probably the better forecast. DT at Wxrisk, thinks so.
Let us see what is going to happen.
Forecasters are in a dilemma this morning because one weather model shows a weak, fast moving storm. The other model, the Euro, shows a much more vigorous storm.
The GFS is saying maybe an inch or less. The Euro gives central NJ, 12". Big difference.
The Euro has been more consistent and is probably the better forecast. DT at Wxrisk, thinks so.
Let us see what is going to happen.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Winter Hits This Week with Snow and Very Cold Weather - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog
Winter Hits This Week with Snow and Very Cold Weather - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog
A good summation with snow maps. Click link ^ ^ ^
A good summation with snow maps. Click link ^ ^ ^
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