I usually like to wait until late November, but I have read enough to make a stab at it now. Looking at Weatherundergrounds Blizzard 92, WxRisk Dave Toleris, NWS, Accuweather and the Farmers Almanac, I have distilled my own forecast which may change after Thanksgiving, but here is how it looks so far. There have been early snows and cold in Siberia and Canada. This will give us a rough early winter. There is a LaNina, in the Pacific. It usually causes a milder east coast winter. A southeast ridge develops in such years which pumps warmer air up the East Coast. But the early winter can be cold and snowy then flip over to milder.
I expect the early winter to be cold and snowy but then it will most likely turn mild in January and tend to remain mild. The worst winter conditions should be in the Mid West and Great Lakes.The East Coast will be variable, tending toward milder later in the winter.
Having said that, this is close to the forecast for last winter. We know that turned out cold and snowy just about all the way through.
It does not seem likely that South Jersey and SE Penna. will be the center for snow, not this year. Notice the Halloween storm clobbered Northern NJ and Southern New England and that should be the pattern.
Temperatures should be slightly below normal.
To sum up , a cold snowy start then more variable and milder in mid to late winter. Also, more icing conditions are likely this year. The old snow, sleet, freezing rain mix, may return this year.
I expect the early winter to be cold and snowy but then it will most likely turn mild in January and tend to remain mild. The worst winter conditions should be in the Mid West and Great Lakes.The East Coast will be variable, tending toward milder later in the winter.
Having said that, this is close to the forecast for last winter. We know that turned out cold and snowy just about all the way through.
It does not seem likely that South Jersey and SE Penna. will be the center for snow, not this year. Notice the Halloween storm clobbered Northern NJ and Southern New England and that should be the pattern.
Temperatures should be slightly below normal.
To sum up , a cold snowy start then more variable and milder in mid to late winter. Also, more icing conditions are likely this year. The old snow, sleet, freezing rain mix, may return this year.
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