Cold ahead and another snowstorm that may hit NORTH New Jersey, this time.

The image shows the winds of the stratosphere at the North Pole, as provided by the U. of Wyoming. This I believe, is called a cross polar wind. As Elliot Abrams pointed out in his AccuWeather.com blog, it signals cold air ahead. The winds are relatively weak and the polar vortex is well off the Pole.

NEXT WEEK, watching the next storm.

Next week, another snowstorm appears on the GFS forecast. This one seems to be aimed right at the New York Metro area. Too early to be sure, but, it bears watching late Tuesday into Wednesday. New Jersey hit the bullseye on two runs of the model.

A 6 to 12 inch snowfall could occur; according to figures from the NWS forecast discussion. AS usual the models do not agree except for the fact that a storm will occur. AccuWeather.com suggests up to a foot of snow is possible, also. But let's not bet on it.



VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND FORECAST (my guess)

FAIR, breezy, cold. ( But not in New England.)


WINTER OLYMPICS WEEKEND FORECAST

Ditto.


Weekend following, Feb. 20,21( a really big guess)

The early outlook is mostly fair and cold. If mother nature cuts us a break.

The GFS long range model shows a shift of the storm track to the south, well away from our region. The Pacific moisture will run through the Gulf area and Florida and then well out east into the Atlantic Ocean. Whether this pattern will prove out, is anyones' guess.


SATURDAY SNOW CHASE

I took a ride down the Garden State Parkway this morning and here is what I saw.

Mile 157 dry, no snow
Mile 145 The Oranges, a light dusting visible from earlier
Mile 135 About 1 inch
Mile 120 Cheesequake Service Area snowing about 3-4 inches on the ground
Mile 115 Garden State Arts Center. Heavy snow,blowing snow,road covered with snow/slush
Mile 102 Asbury Pk.,Neptune. Heavy snow visibility 2/10ths. mile 8 - 10 inches accumulation. Hazardous driving. Many snow plows at work but the storm was working faster than they could. Temperature 24 degrees. Strong, gusty winds,

That was as far as I got. I waited for the snow to ease up, and headed north again. The snow stopped and the roads were only wet.

If you like snow, we were robbed. If you hate snow we dodged the bullet, and it came really close.

Over at Weatherunderground .com, Jeff Masters explains that 2 blizzards in the Mid-Atlantic region in the same winter would occur once every 625 years! This is an unusual winter.