Head for the supermarket, pronto !

Winter Storm Watch Tuesday & Wednesday.

Official notice can be read below.

NY NJ PA Weather expects 4" to 8" of snow , plus 1/2 " of ice over much of  Northern NJ.  


Tuesday it will be snowing early in the morning and continue for much of the day. Icing will follow.


 Travel not recommended from late Tuesday into Wednesday. Major icing problems are likely.

Latest weather data is in........forecast......snow! Ice! Freezing rain! Rain!

Meteorologists are intrigued by the latest forecast model predictions.

Snow after midnight Monday
Tuesday, snow mixing with ice in the afternoon
Wednesday snow/sleet / freezing rain/rain/ drizzle ends.


Something for everyone. 
NOAA predicts Passaic County 7" snow 0.37" ice
                                                                  
 Bergen,Union Counties  5" snow 0.26" ice by Wednesday


Orange County, NY 12"


But there are other predictions of 5 to 9 inches.


PA, from Mason Dixon Line up to Rte. 80 serious icing hazards.


Forecasts will be changing several times between now and Wed.


Oh, I almost forgot, snow Saturday.


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*************************
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

..A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...SNOW TUESDAY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO A
HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND
SLEET CONTINUES MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

AccuWeather.com Predicts Category 5 Blizzard in the Mid-West !

Another Blizzard? Again?


Nam predicts 6" to 12" from Raritan River and North. This is the most extreme of the forecasts, but snow, sleet, and ice seem more likely to occur than rain.


So, the original idea of 5" to 10" followed by ice, rain , drizzle may not be too far from what may happen.  Still too early to make a final call for North Jersey.

Eastern PA likely to see serious icing problems, parts of NJ as well, but it is too early for details.


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George Carlin "Hippy Dippy Weatherman"

AccuWeather.com - Astronomy | We Can Expect Brilliant Northern Lights in Early February

AccuWeather.com - Astronomy | We Can Expect Brilliant Northern Lights in Early February

The Passaic River has not seen such wintry conditions in many years. See photo below.

" Don't you worry, if the Arctic ice melts, we can move to Passaic."

Looking at the latest forecasts I see snow, moderate snow changing to light snow, mixed with heavy snow and sleet, then back to snow or freezing rain, sleet, freezing rain, rain, mixed snow and sleet, rain, snow, sleet, freezing snow mixed with sleet, snow changing to sleet, freezing rain to plain rain changing back to snow or sleet.


I hope that clears it up.  You might say the weather is in a state of flux.  I have a headache.


Weather outlook:
Tues. , snow begins, light accumulation


Tues. night, snow mixes with sleet, freezing rain 3" to 6" accumulation, ice accumulation 1/4 to 1/2 inch.  Northwest Jersey gets the most snow,ice.  Very hazardous driving.


Wed., icy mix to plain rain.  NYC changes over quickly, other areas NW, get more hours of ice&snow.


Thurs., clearing, colder


The forecast above is fragile and subject to change!  Check the latest official NWS forecast!

OH. OH!  The NWS is sending recon. flights out over the Pacific Ocean to gather extra data, Sunday and Monday. They only take this extra measure if they suspect that a big storm may strike in a couple of days.  They need data now, before the storm makes land, in order to know what they are dealing with.  It is like the Hurricane Hunter flights to the tropics, only this time, for an impending winter storm.  Not a good sign if you don't like snow!  


What a winter. New forecast Sunday afternoon or Monday.  Stay tuned.


P.S. I suspended my newspaper delivery for Tues.,Wed.,Thurs. I will be in my snow bunker those days.


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Long duration event next week, mostly snow, then a mix.

The weekend snow showers , light snow Saturday
Sunday mostly fair, cold.


All forecasts are put on hold because of doubts on the storm(s). Check back Sunday late afternoon.

Next week: Tues. Snow begins
WED., snow or mix
Thurs., snow or mix ends early then clearing

HOW MUCH you ask?

Most likely: 5" to 10" snow, with a little ice, fr. rain, drizzle at end.

Also possible: major ice storm, widespread damage, downed trees and powerlines.
or
icy mix changes over to rain
or
10" to 15" + all snow


Worst case scenario: 20" to 30" snow.  Unlikely but still, possible. As of last night the #1 analog is the January 1996 storm.  AKA , Blizzard of '96.

Winter taking a break?

A WARMING TREND may take place in another 10 to 14 days.  The stratosphere is cooling, which is a warm signal, and the NAO is shifting to positive or at least, a neutral configuration. Whether this will be a lasting change or not remains to be seen.


The sun angle is getting higher and on Feb. 10th, it will be as high as it is on October 31st. This will increase the heating ability of the sun's rays.  Trees will begin to show a circle of melted snow around the base of the trunk, on the south side,  especially.   This is one of the first signs of a returning Spring.


You also may notice that house plants near a window, begin to show signs of new growth.

The winter that keeps going and going and going....

Some light snow or snow showers this weekend, more snow next week right around Groundhog Day.   Next week, look for about 5 to 10 inches of snow with some ice mixed in, ending with a little rain or drizzle.


According to NYNJPA Weather.com a stronger snowstorm is possible next week.  Stay tuned.


Do we have to say that it will be cold?


MOOSE REPORT: On his walk this morning, Mr. Moose was smelling everything, a sign of snow.  Before the walk ended, a steady light snow began to fall.

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The show is over but more snow is waiting in the wings.

Snow showers possible later on today, mostly in the hills north and west.

There may be another 1 to 3 inches this weekend and a more significant storm may appear next week.  According to NY NJ PA WEATHER.com there is a risk for a 3" to 6" snow between this Friday night and early next Monday.


 A Groundhog Day snow and ice storm is possible.  Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, may be  our next snow, ahead of another Arctic air mass.  Another low pressure system from the Gulf of Mexico will follow the long arc up the coastline, carrying ample moisture with it.


At this very early look, it would be 5" to 10" of snow, on the ground, when the storm exits on Wednesday.  Ice could be a problem with next week's storm.


Ordinarily,  being almost a week away,  such a possibility could be dismissed as remote, but look at how things have played out this winter.  There is a strong possibility for a major winter storm next week, again.


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Forecasts for snow totals just keep going up.

NYC 8" to 14".  Northeast NJ 8" to 12".  Some locations already have 12" on the ground.

Numerous reports of Thunder, lightning and snow, heavy snow to our south; the storm is now intensifying, but won't really get going until 7 pm.


Lightning and sleet reported in Manasquan, NJ,  low pressure is now hitting the coastline at 6:30 pm.


6:40 pm heavy sleet, lightning in Red Bank, NJ.


A jet streak just off the Carolina coast at this hour will aid in the intensification of the newly forming surface low.  A clear sign of heavy snow ahead.

NOAA enhanced water vapor satellite.


Numerous lightning strikes in MD.,DE. 4:20 pm.

Snow is breaking out ahead of the main storm. The main round of the precip. is after dark today. Based on what is now happening, the predictions for snow totals may need to be increased. But, in some areas the snow totals may decrease.  Some unexpected developments seem to be taking shape.

***Forecasters are being described as throwing up their hands and saying " whatever "! A very rapidly changing situation and very tough to forecast.  Surprises are ahead.

***10:00 am This is a surprise "pre-storm" and it may ease off later.  The big stuff is expected tonight, so far.

***11 am NWS just bumped up Essex county to 6" to 10".

It looks like the worst of the storm hits between 7pm and midnight Wednesday, then tapers off and ends before dawn.

WINTER STORM WATCH now in effect by the NWS for northeast NJ !  NYNJPA Weather.com put NJ in the 6" to 12" category or 4" to 8" nearer to the Delaware River or the NJ Shore. Heavy snow from 7 pm to 4 am.

Snow map below from WXrisk.com......Northern NJ wins the prize!

Mother nature getting set to drop a bomb, a snow bomb that is.

Yes, it is a surprise, but not if you read the Jan. 21st post.

Although still 48 hours away and subject to change, a much colder and snowier storm may be getting ready to strike Wednesday.  In only a 6 to 8 hour time period,  many areas will get 6 to 12 inches of snow.  We have a much colder storm heading our way.


Is there uncertainty?  You bet. 


According to NYNJPAWeather.com the northwest counties of NJ will see 6 to 12 inches of snow.  Elsewhere in NJ a 4 to 8 inch snowfall is likely.  So far.


AccuWeather.com expects less snow, more like 3"to 6" and 1"to 3" near NYC.


NWS is in the 3" to 5" camp.


In my own opinion, most of these figures are too low.  I still like my Sept. 21 Fearless Forecast.  ( which is only an educated guess, afterall ) The QPF for the storm is 3/4" to 1 1/2" for the storm. If that is all snow we have 7 to 15 inches possible.  YIKES!


Everyone, I mean everyone, is waiting for the 12Z guidance to come in.  That happens between 11:30 am and 1:30 pm.

What will the 12Z GFS say? Will it agree with the ECM? Or what about the CMC? And then there is the NOGAPS. The NAM can't be right. Maybe we should follow the SREF. What if the QPF is too low? The DGEX always blows things up. The GFS has a southeast bias. If we get under the CCB we will be hammered!  I need a vacation!


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A major snowstorm is now showing up on the late night computer runs, on Wednesday, it hits us pretty hard. East of NYC will be getting the brunt of the storm. Long Island gets heavy snow.


Most of northern NJ is in the 6" to 10" zone, so far.


Only a day or 2 ago, it was looking like a rainstorm.

NOAA forecasting 10" Morris County, 10" Sussex county, 8" Warren county, 12" to 18" monmouth county, 8" to 12" NYC eastward.


Of course, this could all go bust or a change of 25 to 50 miles in the track, and it will give us even more snow!

Arctic disturbance moving through NJ, Monday night,will produce snow squalls in some areas that may bring a 1" accumulation.

NOAA has sent a flight of planes into the GOM to take measurements out over the open waters.  Apparently, they are concerned that something big is up and they want as much data as possible for the next computer model runs.  This procedure is usually used to help forecast hurricanes.  Interesting.

The Pacific Ocean and much of Canada, also do not have as much data sampling as the forecasters would like.  Sparse data increases forecasting errors by the computer models.

Suddenly it is looking snowier Wed. night.

I can't figure the details but 6" + is now looking likely as a grand finale of the storm. Heavy snow and difficult travel Wednesday late. Rain and sleet will prevail Wednesday afternoon.


An arctic disturbance diving toward the Great Lakes is going to interact with the low coming up from the Gulf of Mexico.  This will infuse cold air and a cold high pressure system will be moving into southern Canada just in time to continue the supply of cold air.  This means more snow especially for North Jersey, Northeast PA and central Jersey. South Jersey is getting mostly rain.


This scenario is almost a carbon copy of what happened in December.  Not as cold, not as much snow, but certainly not a big rainstorm.


That is IF all of the above works out.  Wednesday night looks rough right now.  Stay tuned.


Many thanks to NYNJPAWeather.com.


Worst case scenario, even NYC gets 12"snow

Befuddlement continues for meteorologists on this week's storm.  That is all that I can say.  As luck would have it, the rain/snow line falls right over northern NJ.

Questions aplenty about the mid-week storm.

Saranac Lake, NY  2 am, -36 below zero ! New record low for Saranac Lake.


The Tues-Thurs. storm is still evolving and I want to see what the 12Z models show today between 11 am to 2 pm.  Much of NJ will see mainly rain, only northern & western portions will see accumulating snow.  It looks like the rain will turn to heavy snow late Wednesday and accumulate 3 to 6 inches or more.


But, I have to say it, my earlier impressions have proved right in the past, only to be swayed to change my views in the wrong direction.  My old estimate is below in green type.


Some low temps Monday morning:
New Jersey
Andover -9 below zero
Sussex -8
Morristown -1


New York
Saranac Lake -36
Watertown -29
Glens Falls -27

GFS 0Z model snapshot, as described 11pm Sunday. Subject to change, and it will change.

Snow / rain begins about noon on Wed.


Earlier on Wed. rain occurs in NYC.


It will be snowing hard  ( Wed. 10 pm to 4 am, Thurs. ) About 6 hours of heavy snow, 6 to 8" accumulation.


More details tomorrow. NJ would see more snow than NYC, as you go inland and to higher elevation.  A heavy wet snowstorm with mixing early then ending as all snow.


So we have snow to start, then mixing with rain,sleet freezing rain, finally back to snow.  Then it ends very early Thursday morning.


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Potential storm still not revealing its' hand.

My original estimate is still good, although I would lessen the snow totals, somewhat. It looks like I-95 could be right on the rain / snow line.  A typical outcome for storms tracking close to the coast with no blocking high pressure over Maine.  It will warm up surprisingly Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 ( below is my estimate from Friday, Jan. 21st.)

 Tues.  snow begins, possibly heavy ( make that late )

Tues.  night, snow

Wed.  snow possibly mixing with or changing to rain

Wed. night,  back to all snow

Thurs.  snow ends before noon.

6" coastal

12" to 18" inland

Inland high elevations 24" ( snow totals probably too high )

If you take this forecast verbatim, there is a bridge in Brooklyn that I am selling.

Sunday noon:  The storm is likely delayed.  The Wednesday -Thursday time frame is becoming more likely.

Nothing new Sunday morning, just very cold, below zero tonight again in some spots. Storm for Tues. & Wed. very uncertain.


Sunday morning lows as reported by NWS:
Morristown -7 below zero
Andover -9
Sussex -11
Somerville -9
Caldwell  1 above zero.

Storm for Tuesday and Wednesday could go to snow,sleet, rain or all 3. The weather models and the forecasters should have this one figured out by dinner time Sunday.


 But, then again, maybe not. I still like my fearless forecast for sentimental reasons.


See the fearless forecast below. ( my own ideas, NOT official.)


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Saturday at noon, there is not much happening to clarify what the next storm will bring. Mixing or changing to rain in the next storm, is possible, as is all snow.  The rain snow line could fall right in North Jersey.

A major Nor'easter is likely but what track it will take is not known.  Tuesday & Wednesday look stormy but that is all the forecasters can say.

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Very cold conditions, Sunday and Monday, single number lows, some near zero.

Saturday at noon, there is not much happening to clarify what the next storm will bring. Mixing or changing to rain in the next storm, is possible, as is all snow.  The rain snow line could fall right in North Jersey.

A major Nor'easter is likely but what track it will take is not known.  Tuesday & Wednesday look stormy but that is all the forecasters can say.

TOMORROW, Sunday, the forecasters should have a pretty good handle on what will happen.

Fearless Forecast, but loaded with uncertainty.

Tues.  snow begins, possibly heavy
Tues.  night, snow
Wed.  snow possibly mixing with or changing to rain
Wed. night,  back to all snow
Thurs.  snow ends before noon.


6" coastal
12" to 18" inland
Inland high elevations 24" 


If you take this forecast verbatim, there is a bridge in Brooklyn that I am selling.

Snow ends today and a big threat seems to be brewing for next week.

2 pm update below

Todays' storm is already history and looking ahead the next 2 weeks, there are no less than 4 possible storms ahead. 


 One next Tues. through Thursday, already looks likely. At 144 hours away, it is not possible to give a reliable forecast but, the map above represents about a foot of snow Wednesday.  Rain or a mix is also a possibility. Even a complete miss could occur.


 Just to give an idea about what may happen.  What a winter!

I measured a little over 4" of snow Friday morning.


A STORM IS ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK, BUT WHAT WILL IT BRING?  TUES. WED. THURS. A 3 DAY NOR'EASTER.


Fri. 2 pm:   Euro shows a slop storm for NYC, but starts with heavy snow, Pennsylvania gets 2 feet of snow, NJ is somewhere in between.  12" to 18" possible for NJ.  All rain could even happen. Suburban Philly gets 30 hours of snow and 30"?  Could happen.


 Interesting days ahead watching this storm, because all is very uncertain.  A very heavy wet snow is possible, not good news for the power companies.

Fast moving snowmaker tonight and early tomorrow, storm threat next week again, again.

Snow is breaking out over PA already and the snow will move into our area before midnight, not after.  If you wait tomorrow, the snow should end by late rush hour, maybe even sooner.  It will snow hard, but only for a fairly short time period. Still, snow totals are more likely to go higher rather than lower.  There are signs of early intensification and a good moisture feed into the developing storm.  High instability as well, along with falling temps.

I am still staying with my 4 to 8 inch estimate from Monday.

Above: 7 am snow map.

Next week a snow / rain threat appears mid-week. EURO predicts 36 hours of snow with 12"+ accumulation, just to give an early ballpark figure.  Worth watching next Tues. , Wed., Thurs.

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Although there are trends that show less snow for Friday, I won't want to move away from the 4 to 8 inch figure, unless tomorrow still shows the same trends in the model runs. The most snow will fall at the very early rush hour.  Whatever that turns out to be.


 A very cold weekend is certain.

Snow on the way Friday, another threat next week from Tuesday through Thursday.

I still like my idea from Monday, that is a 4" to 8" snowfall this Friday. This was obtained from the GFS at that time.

Next week, a classic major snowmaker, ( or rainmaker ) may be setting up between Tuesday through Thursday.
The ingredients are as follows:

*Cold air in place to our north.
*A blocking high pressure near Greenland.
* A 50 / 50 low near the Canadian Maritimes.
* A high pressure ridge over the Rocky Mts.
* A negatively tilted trough over the east coast.
*A disturbance approaching from the west.
* moisture available from the Gulf.

Only rarely, do all these factors come together, to produce a major storm. Much too early to get excited at this time, but worth watching.

At NYNJPA WEATHER .COM meteorologist Steve DiMartino has most of NJ in the 3" to 6" zone.  The northeast corner is in the 4"to 8" zone.


www.nynjpaweather.com, link below to click on.


http://www.nynjpaweather.com

SNEAK PREVIEW OF FRIDAY MORNING WEATHER: 25 degrees, 4 to 6 inches of snow.


I will stay with my 4 to 8 inch forecast, as stated on Monday.

I don't care if nobody reads this blog.

BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  Hazardous driving in spots.

  Tues.,11 pm: Bad news if you don't like snow, late night GFS computer model run shows the NYC area taking a pretty good hit from the Friday snow storm. More tomorrow.

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CHANCE of snow Friday. See below.

Some roads are more difficult to plow than others! From Japan.

"Homer, the weatherman says it is going to snow again Friday."

Photo above: White Cat II by Ace of Finland photography.

With several models agreeing on snow Friday, only the details need to be worked out.  A moderate amount of snow seems likely, so far.  Mets. are waiting for the pm Euro to come in by around 2 pm this afternoon, to see if it now agrees with several other models.

• Tuesday afternoon thoughts.
• With forecasts all over the board, once again, we have a range of expectations for Friday.
• 
  
• Nothing, 1" to 2", 2" to 4", 6" to 12", and 1' to 2'. *** My best guess is still 4" to 8" for north Jersey. ***
• 
  
• Since we are in such a volatile weather pattern, I would not trust a forecast more than 24 to 36 hours in advance.  Remember, there was no consensus on the December "Boxing Day Blizzard", until Christmas Day! ( and not even then, really)
• 
  
• This storm is yet another "Miller B" type storm.  A disturbance comes from the Plains States, as it gets near the coast, a new storm forms at the ocean front. There is a merger between the original disturbance and another one. If the new storm forms south of NJ, we get a major snowfall.  Too far south, it may go out to sea.  Too far north and Long Island and New England get the big snows.
• Anything could happen, but the chances of 12" or more are remote, in my humble opinion. The storm will be followed by Arctic air for the weekend.

AccuWeather.com - Climate Change | New Normals on the Way

AccuWeather.com - Climate Change | New Normals on the Way



Forecast see below:

The iceman is here, next comes the snowman on Thursday night and Friday.

Tuesday morning: the forecasts are proving out to be accurate. Gradual warming will continue and so will sleet, freezing rain and then plain rain.  Turning cold enough again tonight, to form black ice.


Next, light to moderate snow Thursday night / Friday.  The storm itself looks fairly certain, but the intensity of the storm, is still not known. Fortunately, it should be a fast mover and not be able to dump a huge quantity of snow. Sleet and rain mixing in along the coast could occur, but not to the extent we are seeing Today.
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Monthly News Letter

Monthly News Letter


Link above to: NYNJPAWeather.com, a detailed outlook. Very highly qualified Met.

Also: Forecasters are keeping a close watch on the Thursday night, Friday snowstorm threat. Although only a threat, the storm if it arrives, would be about 12 hours long, producing 4 to 8 inches of snow.


****AT 9 pm, MONDAY,  SNOW IS BREAKING OUT IN SOUTH JERSEY. ****

Ice, Ice, Baby ! From Hazleton, Scranton, High Point,West Milford to Poughkeepsie.

Far to the north and west 2 to 4 inches of snow and 1/2 inch of ice will occur.


Most of north NJ will range from 2" of snow to less than 1".  1/4 to 1/10 inch of ice, then plain rain. Some heavy rain possible.
All this begins after midnight tonight and into Tuesday.  It will change over later in the morning.  Early commute treacherous.
                                                                                               
***Threat of snow, possibly heavy, on Friday.  Stay tuned.***
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..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN A UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW AND SLEET.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...THEN RISE TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN WILL THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS BY THE RUSH HOUR TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Maribor World Cup GS canceled during first run due to warm weather | Ski Racing

Maribor World Cup GS canceled during first run due to warm weather | Ski Racing

Europe has had a big warm up. World Cup ski race cancelled in Slovenia. Snow melted.

The short range weather model now shows snow or ice up until about dawn, Tuesday, then a change to rain as the morning wears on.  Deep valleys north and west may see many hours of icing.
FORECAST BELOW.

Icy mix possible in northern and western NJ, Tuesday morning.

Although it now looks like all areas will see snow and ice very late Monday and early Tuesday, the interior of NJ will be where there will be travel problems, north and west of I-287. Most of NJ will change to rain quickly.
FORECAST BELOW:
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The winter that keeps going and going and going....

If you really want to look way ahead the next chance for a major snowstorm would be:
Jan. 21,22
Jan. 24,25
This weeks' weather follows below, a very iffy forecast:


Sunday, fair cold
Monday, mostly fair, increasing clouds
Monday night, snow late, icy commute 7am Tuesday, but then rain follows quickly.

Tuesday, snow, sleet, freezing rain, very early, some accumulation, quickly changing to rain, not as cold. Rain could be heavy.


Wednesday, clearing, cold
Thursday, cold then increasing clouds


Thursday night, snow or snow showers
Friday, snow ending, quite cold.

Saturday, very cold.


A developing high pressure near Greenland will favor a coastal storm from NYC to Boston, the week following this one. Jan. 24,25.

More wintry weather in the forecasts next week for New Jersey.

There is a mega load of arctic air in Canada,  it might move toward us soon,  perhaps.
On the bright side the year 2010 was tied for the warmest year on record, GLOBALLY, with the year 1998.


SEE BELOW: ICE POTENTIAL for interior NJ on Tuesday.

1" or 2" of snow and ice for morning commute.
3957

Cold snowy trend will continue. Very cold late next week.

ICE POTENTIAL for inland NJ Tuesday.  Deep valley locations in northern & western NJ could see significant icing problems.  Moderate ice accumulations, before a change to rain. Check the latest forecasts Monday !  You have 2 days to buy bread, milk and candles if you live there.


Although it looks like it is going to snow all week, it won't really be that bad until the end of the week.


Saturday,  becoming cloudy, very light snow late, dusting to 1".
Sunday,  clearing, cold
Monday,  becoming cloudy snow at night, ice,  some accumulation

Tuesday,  Snow, ice, in the am,  turning to rain,milder.
 1" to 3"snow&ice
Tuesday night, rain turns back to snow, ice.  Small amounts.


Wednesday, a little snow early, clearing
Thursday,  fair cold
Thursday night, snow

Friday,  snow?

Saturday,  snow ending, clearing, cold.


FEBRUARY is shaping up to be a problem child.  Also, note the relative heat wave in Siberia, that cold air has got to go somewhere.  It was -70 below zero there a week ago.

It ain't melting. Now what is next?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1725


The link above is a nice report with pix on the storm.


My thoughts on what's next:
Wed. through Saturday: cold, breezy some snow showers could occur, 
Sunday: snow showers turning colder, Monday cold.


Tuesday: the next storm could bring snow,sleet, rain or all three mixed.


A sharp cold spell could occur right after the storm departs next week.


I expect a January thaw about January 26th. or shortly there after.  This will be a brief break only, if it occurs. February will likely be snowy and still cold.


That is it, in other words , winter still ahead.


3838

The snow plow woke me up at 3 am.

3:30 am:  The storm is ending abruptly and sooner than forecast by everyone.  Looks like no new snow by dawn, just some snow showers.
Most locations have a total of 3 to 7 inches at this time, with only light accumulations likely the remainder of Wednesday.

Statement as of 3:04 AM EST on January 12, 2011

Snow from the tip of northwest New Jersey through the northeast
corner of New Jersey including Morristown... New Brunswick and
Asbury Park will be briefly moderate until about 4 am... then
quickly end between 430 am and 6 am.

The worst of this storm has occurred. Amounts in this area as 2 am
generally ranged between 3 and 6 inches.

Travel will still be hazardous through 6 am on untreated-unplowed
routes. Leave extra time for your morning commute. 

Snowmageddon again?

AccuWeather map

My forecast plan: Go to sleep early , wake up at 3 am, take dog for a walk, make forecast.
7pm update: Precipitation is rapidly expanding, intensification is underway.
8 pm : Snow over much of NJ, earlier than expected. After 10 pm, 1 inch per hour snowfall rates will develop.
10:30 pm Thundersnow near Cape May. RADAR is really lighting up expect heavy snow soon.
Belmar just changed over to all snow. Thundersnow in many coastal NJ locations.


NYNJPA Weather .com forecasts 8 to 14" for northeast NJ, less to west, south and coastal areas.  So far his forecast is is very good in being accurate.

Good news:  After cleaning up this snow another blizzard keeps appearing for Jan. 19th. It should not happen but given this winter it probably will.  This weekend looks good maybe a little snow late Sunday.

2:45 pm.
You can now see the first storm over PA, on the radar.  The 2nd storm, which will give us our snow tonight is not even formed yet.  That is why it is so hard to predict exactly what may happen.  It does not look good so far.

3 pm:  NWS predicts 8 to 9" for Bergen, Passaic, Essex.  In  CONN. - 22"  Mets. are in 2 camps 6 to 10"  and 12 to 20" !  Who will win?

Low pressure just formed near Cape Hatteras.  More signs point to another big snow.

Strong and Fast Moving Storm Will Deliver A Quick Snowfall with Near Blizzard Conditions Tonight and Early Tomorrow.

Flight delays at JFK, Chicago, Philadelphia as of 2:30 pm.

Tuesday afternoon update:  the storm is now being forecast to linger until mid-day.  This will result in additional accumulations. Light snow and snow showers will begin around nightfall in southern and western areas first, then overspread the entire region, by around midnight.

The storm is going to be moving fast, it is cut off from Gulf moisture, but a vigorous circulation will produce heavy snow in many areas but, lighter snow in others.  A few miles will produce a large difference in snow totals.  Snow should begin around midnight, before that some snow showers may occur.  The snow will quickly end tomorrow, probably before mid-day.  Expect very windy conditions especially in open areas near the coast.

3708

You have 2 days to buy your bread and milk. Winter Storm Watch Issued.

Snow will begin falling steadily between 10pm and midnight Tuesday and continue through morning rush hour on Wednesday up to about 9 or 10 am.




3639

NAM model shows most of NJ gets a big hit from the snowstorm.  Not as long or as strong as the December storm though.

Some predicted snow totals that are
lol to some people:
JFK- 21.1"
EWR- 24.4"
PHL- 15.1"
ABE-17.0"
RDG-10.6"
AVP 10.0"
HPN 28.2"
TTN- 18.1"
ACY 1.7" 


The GFS differs, more out east than the NAM.


There are 2 schools of thought right now a 3" to 6" event or a 8" to 20" event.  Take your pick.  This is because the models disagree, so we must wait for more data or take a stab at what we have already. 


 I vote for 6" to 12"