Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM, THURSDAY!
Strongest winds will occur Wednesday night into very early Thursday.
High winds possible Wednesday. Caution!
Upton:
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WED INTO WED EVENING...
THEN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVOLVE MAINLY LATE WED
NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF /90-100 KT AT 900 MB/
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND NEARBY WATERS
AND SWINGS NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NYC METRO ON EAST. WHILE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SFC-BASED INVERSION WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
INHIBIT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ON SEVERAL POINTS...INCLUDING A STRONG
ENOUGH LLJ PER LOCAL RULE OF THUMB...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
VIA PRECIP DRAG IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DUCTED GRAVITY WAVE DEVELOPMENT AS A MID LEVEL JET
STREAK RIDING UP THE MID ATLC COAST PASSES THE INFLECTION POINT OF
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...AND AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STABLE LOW LEVELS TOPPED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Special Briefing from NWS, Mt. Holly Office
Executive Summary
• A Winter Storm is expected in our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow. • Snowfall amounts will be in the one to four inch range with higher amounts more likely closer to the Atlantic Coast.
• This is expected to be a dry type of snow. • Cold temperatures will continue across the area through the weekend, with a warming trend beginning Monday. • Tides will not be an issue with this event. • Given the relatively low snowfall amounts, this is the last briefing package for this event. If the threat of heavier snowfall should develop, briefing packages will resume. • For the latest forecast & warning information, monitor our website at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
• A Winter Storm is expected in our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow. • Snowfall amounts will be in the one to four inch range with higher amounts more likely closer to the Atlantic Coast.
• This is expected to be a dry type of snow. • Cold temperatures will continue across the area through the weekend, with a warming trend beginning Monday. • Tides will not be an issue with this event. • Given the relatively low snowfall amounts, this is the last briefing package for this event. If the threat of heavier snowfall should develop, briefing packages will resume. • For the latest forecast & warning information, monitor our website at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Special Briefing from NWS on Jan. 25 storm. From Mt. Holly, NJ office. Applies to NJ south and west of New York Metro.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
click on link ^ ^ ^
Executive Summary
• A Winter Storm may affect our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. •Based on current model trends, the Friday afternoon commute could be problematic. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow in most places, with perhaps some sleet mixing in with the snow in the far south.
• Too early to forecast snowfall amounts, but the speed and direction of this storm suggests a plow-able snow, but nothing extreme. •This should be more of a dry snow rather than a wet snow. •Quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much snow might fall from this event. Stay tuned for future updates.
•Cold temperatures will continue across the area on Saturday and Sunday, with a warming trend beginning Monday. •Tides will not be an issue with this event. •Other notes:
•Very cold temperatures can be expected into Friday. Brisk west to northwest winds will drive wind chill values below zero in many areas tonight.
click on link ^ ^ ^
Executive Summary
• A Winter Storm may affect our area Friday afternoon through late Friday night. •Based on current model trends, the Friday afternoon commute could be problematic. • Temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be all snow in most places, with perhaps some sleet mixing in with the snow in the far south.
• Too early to forecast snowfall amounts, but the speed and direction of this storm suggests a plow-able snow, but nothing extreme. •This should be more of a dry snow rather than a wet snow. •Quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much snow might fall from this event. Stay tuned for future updates.
•Cold temperatures will continue across the area on Saturday and Sunday, with a warming trend beginning Monday. •Tides will not be an issue with this event. •Other notes:
•Very cold temperatures can be expected into Friday. Brisk west to northwest winds will drive wind chill values below zero in many areas tonight.
School Day Forecast for Friday
The roads will be fine in the morning. Maybe an hour before lunch, the snow begins falling lightly. The kids are all excited, constantly gazing out the window. They keep asking if they will be sent home early. You tell them, probably not.
Then, just after lunch, it begins snowing furiously. But it is already too late to close school early. The kids keep asking why can't they go home. You can't get anything done because they are too antsy.
Finally, the dismissal bell rings. But the principal announces that all staff must remain until the late buses pick up the rest of the kids.
At long last, about 30 minutes later, you go out to your car. There is about 4 inches of fresh snow on the ground. The roads are a nightmare and it takes three hours to get home.
At last you are home and can sit down and relax. You glance out the window so you can enjoy the falling snow. You see that it has just stopped snowing.
Hope you have a nice day, Friday.
Then, just after lunch, it begins snowing furiously. But it is already too late to close school early. The kids keep asking why can't they go home. You can't get anything done because they are too antsy.
Finally, the dismissal bell rings. But the principal announces that all staff must remain until the late buses pick up the rest of the kids.
At long last, about 30 minutes later, you go out to your car. There is about 4 inches of fresh snow on the ground. The roads are a nightmare and it takes three hours to get home.
At last you are home and can sit down and relax. You glance out the window so you can enjoy the falling snow. You see that it has just stopped snowing.
Hope you have a nice day, Friday.
" The weather will always surprise you!" - David Ludlum, weather historian.
This quote is from David Ludlum, as spoken at a weather weenie conference. He published many fascinating books on weather history, during his lifetime.
Forecasters are in a dilemma this morning because one weather model shows a weak, fast moving storm. The other model, the Euro, shows a much more vigorous storm.
The GFS is saying maybe an inch or less. The Euro gives central NJ, 12". Big difference.
The Euro has been more consistent and is probably the better forecast. DT at Wxrisk, thinks so.
Let us see what is going to happen.
Forecasters are in a dilemma this morning because one weather model shows a weak, fast moving storm. The other model, the Euro, shows a much more vigorous storm.
The GFS is saying maybe an inch or less. The Euro gives central NJ, 12". Big difference.
The Euro has been more consistent and is probably the better forecast. DT at Wxrisk, thinks so.
Let us see what is going to happen.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Winter Hits This Week with Snow and Very Cold Weather - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog
Winter Hits This Week with Snow and Very Cold Weather - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog
A good summation with snow maps. Click link ^ ^ ^
A good summation with snow maps. Click link ^ ^ ^
Euro model predicts 4 to 8 inch snowfall Friday, followed by lots of windy, cold weather.
It is becoming a no brainer now, there will be snow Friday in the New York Metro. This will be a cold, windy, but short lived storm.
The snow may begin Thursday night and cause problems for the Friday morning commute.
High snow day potential here!
NWS forecast calls for snow and rain to begin Friday, during the day. We shall see.
The storm center which will affect us Friday comes on shore in Western Canada tonight. The NWS is sending out aircraft to take extra measurements tonight, an indication that the storm has potential.
The snow may begin Thursday night and cause problems for the Friday morning commute.
High snow day potential here!
NWS forecast calls for snow and rain to begin Friday, during the day. We shall see.
The storm center which will affect us Friday comes on shore in Western Canada tonight. The NWS is sending out aircraft to take extra measurements tonight, an indication that the storm has potential.
THIS WEEK IN WEATHER -20 JAN 2013: Weather Geek Fest !
This video tells all about the Friday Jan. 25th, snow. Thanks to meteorologist DT at Wxrisk.com and on Facebook.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Snow Also Headed to NYC, Boston, Portland This Week
Snow Also Headed to NYC, Boston, Portland This Week
Click here to link. ^ ^ ^
Only light snow expected Monday and Tuesday.
Click here to link. ^ ^ ^
Only light snow expected Monday and Tuesday.
Timing of the snowstorm.
As of now, subject to change, the storm will move in before dawn Friday, Jan. 25th. It will last only 12 hours and the heaviest snow will occur early in the day. As the storm proceeds the snow will become lighter then taper off by Friday afternoon.
It looks like the very early morning rush hour would have the most travel problems.
Tuesday is the day for a solid forecast. Right now the storm is over the Pacific ocean which has less data sent in to track the weather system. The storm enters the mainland on Tuesday.
UPDATE: Latest data indicates the snow begins during the day on Friday and ends during the night. Partly cloudy, windy and cold Saturday.
It looks like the very early morning rush hour would have the most travel problems.
Tuesday is the day for a solid forecast. Right now the storm is over the Pacific ocean which has less data sent in to track the weather system. The storm enters the mainland on Tuesday.
UPDATE: Latest data indicates the snow begins during the day on Friday and ends during the night. Partly cloudy, windy and cold Saturday.
The Friday snowfall is too volatile to get a reliable forecast, just yet.
It looks like a 3 to 6 inch event to me but, we will not have good figures on this, until Tuesday morning. A fast moving and not a long lasting storm.
The Euro and the GFS are both changing things around. Perhaps DT was correct on Friday, when he stated that this will go mostly to New England.
I think Henry M. at Accuweather.com has the right idea in his blog. A clipper storm heads to the coast and there picks up moisture, intensifies, but quickly moves out to the northeast. Leaving us with 4" + of snow and plenty of wind and cold. It all depends on weather we are on the cold side of the storm or not.
Once in a while, such a storm can drop more snow than forecast but so far, I see no reason for this one to do that. The 12Z models are coming in now.
GFS shows a quick moving clipper that brings snow in to the New York Metro in the pre-dawn hours and quickly exits by Friday afternoon, leaving us with 5 to 8 inches of snow. A tough commute Friday morning, the 25th of January! IF it is correct!
Statement:
MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK/START THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT. BUT BECAUSE THE ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
IN THE BERING SEA AND NOT EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE WEST COAST
TILL MIDWEEK THERE IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS
AT THIS TIME. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE STILL WIDE RANGE OF MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS
*****from Upton, NY weather office.
The Euro and the GFS are both changing things around. Perhaps DT was correct on Friday, when he stated that this will go mostly to New England.
I think Henry M. at Accuweather.com has the right idea in his blog. A clipper storm heads to the coast and there picks up moisture, intensifies, but quickly moves out to the northeast. Leaving us with 4" + of snow and plenty of wind and cold. It all depends on weather we are on the cold side of the storm or not.
Once in a while, such a storm can drop more snow than forecast but so far, I see no reason for this one to do that. The 12Z models are coming in now.
GFS shows a quick moving clipper that brings snow in to the New York Metro in the pre-dawn hours and quickly exits by Friday afternoon, leaving us with 5 to 8 inches of snow. A tough commute Friday morning, the 25th of January! IF it is correct!
Statement:
MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK/START THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT. BUT BECAUSE THE ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
IN THE BERING SEA AND NOT EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE WEST COAST
TILL MIDWEEK THERE IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS
AT THIS TIME. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE STILL WIDE RANGE OF MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS
*****from Upton, NY weather office.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Latest consensus on the storm next weekend.
The storm may arrive on the 25th , Friday. It will be fast moving and is not likely to produce very deep snows. Most places will be closer to the 3 to 6 inch range. The sooner the storm moves in, the less likely that there would be rain with it.
Nat. Weather service: 4" Friday, 3" more Fri. night. Snow showers Saturday.
From DT @ Wxrisk.com and Facebook.
The afternoon data has SPLIT and do NOT agree. The GFS Model shows 2 Lows... the 1st one tracks though PA and north of NYC which pulls up warm air from NC to NYC and CT... and rain. The front stalls on the East coast and 2nd low forms which forces the rain to snow over NC VA MD DE NJ eastern PA and NYC and se New england. Behind this systems a NEW blast of arctic cold air. The GFS says the rain MIGHT end as snow .
The 12z EURO ..whch usually excels in this time frame... keeps the same over all set up and track from the previous model run...so the Model appears to be developing CONSISTENCY. The 12z Saturday EURO which came out at 145pm keeps the low MUCH further south vs the GFS so again COLD air from the Great Lakes builds in NY WVA PA MD and VA. and this keeps the precip snow over central and Northern VA WVA MD DE PA NJ NYC and southern New England. For snow lovers the 0z and 12Z euro solutions are the BEST and it would bring several inches to snow starved northern half of VA MD and DE into southeast PA. For Central and southwest VA this might be an snow to ICE event .
http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/12ZECMWFJAN19.jpg
For snow lovers the 0z and 12Z euro solutions are the BEST and it would bring several inches to snow starved northern half of VA MD and DE into southeast PA. Behind this Low a HUGE blast of arctic air comes in... even colder than what we will see JAN 20-21-22-23.http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/12ZEURDAY8.jpg
Nat. Weather service: 4" Friday, 3" more Fri. night. Snow showers Saturday.
From DT @ Wxrisk.com and Facebook.
The afternoon data has SPLIT and do NOT agree. The GFS Model shows 2 Lows... the 1st one tracks though PA and north of NYC which pulls up warm air from NC to NYC and CT... and rain. The front stalls on the East coast and 2nd low forms which forces the rain to snow over NC VA MD DE NJ eastern PA and NYC and se New england. Behind this systems a NEW blast of arctic cold air. The GFS says the rain MIGHT end as snow .
The 12z EURO ..whch usually excels in this time frame... keeps the same over all set up and track from the previous model run...so the Model appears to be developing CONSISTENCY. The 12z Saturday EURO which came out at 145pm keeps the low MUCH further south vs the GFS so again COLD air from the Great Lakes builds in NY WVA PA MD and VA. and this keeps the precip snow over central and Northern VA WVA MD DE PA NJ NYC and southern New England. For snow lovers the 0z and 12Z euro solutions are the BEST and it would bring several inches to snow starved northern half of VA MD and DE into southeast PA. For Central and southwest VA this might be an snow to ICE event .
http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/12ZECMWFJAN19.jpg
For snow lovers the 0z and 12Z euro solutions are the BEST and it would bring several inches to snow starved northern half of VA MD and DE into southeast PA. Behind this Low a HUGE blast of arctic air comes in... even colder than what we will see JAN 20-21-22-23.http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/12ZEURDAY8.jpg
Snow potential this week.
Looking at NYNJPAWEATHER, and Geo Environmental Atmosphere, there are building chances for snow this week.
Tuesday could bring light snow/ snow showers with rain mixing in near the coast. It could produce 2 to 4 inches, if all works out as shown on the Short Range Ensemble Forecast.
A major snow is possible Jan. 26th, Saturday. Too early to tell for sure for either event. It will be much colder after the Arctic front moves through this Sunday night. The weather geeks on AW describe this as the first legitimate threat with cold air in place, this winter. Early guesstimates are for a 6 to 12 inch snowfall. Lately, the models have been doing a little better, but not that much. So far, the Euro and the GFS are showing this snow storm.
The poor performance of the weather models, this season, creates doubt on every forecast beyond 3 to 5 days.
Tuesday could bring light snow/ snow showers with rain mixing in near the coast. It could produce 2 to 4 inches, if all works out as shown on the Short Range Ensemble Forecast.
A major snow is possible Jan. 26th, Saturday. Too early to tell for sure for either event. It will be much colder after the Arctic front moves through this Sunday night. The weather geeks on AW describe this as the first legitimate threat with cold air in place, this winter. Early guesstimates are for a 6 to 12 inch snowfall. Lately, the models have been doing a little better, but not that much. So far, the Euro and the GFS are showing this snow storm.
The poor performance of the weather models, this season, creates doubt on every forecast beyond 3 to 5 days.
Friday, January 18, 2013
Cold today, then mild, then cold again next week. There is a chance for snow next week. Arctic air will be in control most of the time.
The polar vortex sits just to our north and at times the chill dips south, toward us such as today, Friday. But very quickly today's cold air retreats.
Next week, will feature cold air and between the 22nd to the 26th, there are two chances for snow. The Euro early today had an impressive storm at the end of next week. But at 216 hours ahead, it is just a fantasy at this point. You cannot believe anything unless it gets within the 3 to 5 day forecast range.
This has been a very tough winter to forecast and all of the computer models have had poor performance.
We are STILL fighting a powerful Pacific jet stream wind and a high pressure ridge over the southeast US. For now though, the cold to our North will win out. The Polar Vortex which belongs near the North Pole, is now sending down our temperatures. New England especially, is under the Polar Vortex chill. Just being a little further north, with less influence from the Atlantic Ocean, makes New England a home for North Pole air masses.
Next week, will feature cold air and between the 22nd to the 26th, there are two chances for snow. The Euro early today had an impressive storm at the end of next week. But at 216 hours ahead, it is just a fantasy at this point. You cannot believe anything unless it gets within the 3 to 5 day forecast range.
This has been a very tough winter to forecast and all of the computer models have had poor performance.
We are STILL fighting a powerful Pacific jet stream wind and a high pressure ridge over the southeast US. For now though, the cold to our North will win out. The Polar Vortex which belongs near the North Pole, is now sending down our temperatures. New England especially, is under the Polar Vortex chill. Just being a little further north, with less influence from the Atlantic Ocean, makes New England a home for North Pole air masses.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Snow accumulations.
New Jersey
... Bergen County...
Ridgewood 1.5 639 am 1/16 trained spotter
Rivervale 1.5 644 am 1/16 public
... Essex County...
Cedar Grove 0.9 640 am 1/16 public
Newark Airport 0.3 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
... Hudson County...
Hoboken 0.2 730 am 1/16 trained spotter
Harrison 0.2 800 am 1/16 trained spotter
... Passaic County...
West Milford 4.2 720 am 1/16 trained spotter
Hawthorne 1.5 642 am 1/16 trained spotter
Haskell 1.3 200 am 1/16 trained spotter
Wayne 1.0 653 am 1/16 trained spotter
New York
... Kings County...
Midwood 0.1 800 am 1/16 coop observer
... New York County...
Central Park T 700 am 1/16 Central Park Zoo
... Orange County...
Hamptonburgh 4.5 700 am 1/16 trained spotter
Warwick 4.5 924 am 1/16 trained spotter
Greenville 4.2 813 am 1/16 trained spotter
Washingtonville 4.1 711 am 1/16 trained spotter
Cornwall On Hudson 4.0 800 am 1/16 trained spotter
Newburgh 4.0 840 am 1/16 public
New Windsor 3.5 800 am 1/16 trained spotter
Harriman 3.5 700 am 1/16 public
Middletown 2.4 300 am 1/16 trained spotter
... Putnam County...
Mahopac 4.0 828 am 1/16 trained spotter
Kent Cliffs 4.0 830 am 1/16 trained spotter
... Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia 0.1 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
NYC/JFK Airport 0.1 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
... Rockland County...
Stony Point 4.2 730 am 1/16 trained spotter
Suffern 3.0 800 am 1/16 public
... Suffolk County...
Mount Sinai 0.3 712 am 1/16 coop observer
Shoreham 0.2 640 am 1/16 trained spotter
Islip Airport 0.1 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
Upton 0.1 700 am 1/16 NWS office
... Westchester County...
Somers 4.3 800 am 1/16 public
Armonk 3.5 740 am 1/16 public
Port Chester 3.1 900 am 1/16 public
Mount Kisco 2.5 420 am 1/16 trained spotter
Eastchester 2.3 855 am 1/16 public
Hartsdale 2.1 900 am 1/16 public
Yonkers 2.0 900 am 1/16 broadcast media
Rye 1.5 915 am 1/16 public
Scarsdale 1.0 630 am 1/16 public
**********************24 hour snowfall**********************
... Bergen County...
Ridgewood 1.5 639 am 1/16 trained spotter
Rivervale 1.5 644 am 1/16 public
... Essex County...
Cedar Grove 0.9 640 am 1/16 public
Newark Airport 0.3 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
... Hudson County...
Hoboken 0.2 730 am 1/16 trained spotter
Harrison 0.2 800 am 1/16 trained spotter
... Passaic County...
West Milford 4.2 720 am 1/16 trained spotter
Hawthorne 1.5 642 am 1/16 trained spotter
Haskell 1.3 200 am 1/16 trained spotter
Wayne 1.0 653 am 1/16 trained spotter
New York
... Kings County...
Midwood 0.1 800 am 1/16 coop observer
... New York County...
Central Park T 700 am 1/16 Central Park Zoo
... Orange County...
Hamptonburgh 4.5 700 am 1/16 trained spotter
Warwick 4.5 924 am 1/16 trained spotter
Greenville 4.2 813 am 1/16 trained spotter
Washingtonville 4.1 711 am 1/16 trained spotter
Cornwall On Hudson 4.0 800 am 1/16 trained spotter
Newburgh 4.0 840 am 1/16 public
New Windsor 3.5 800 am 1/16 trained spotter
Harriman 3.5 700 am 1/16 public
Middletown 2.4 300 am 1/16 trained spotter
... Putnam County...
Mahopac 4.0 828 am 1/16 trained spotter
Kent Cliffs 4.0 830 am 1/16 trained spotter
... Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia 0.1 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
NYC/JFK Airport 0.1 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
... Rockland County...
Stony Point 4.2 730 am 1/16 trained spotter
Suffern 3.0 800 am 1/16 public
... Suffolk County...
Mount Sinai 0.3 712 am 1/16 coop observer
Shoreham 0.2 640 am 1/16 trained spotter
Islip Airport 0.1 700 am 1/16 FAA contract observer
Upton 0.1 700 am 1/16 NWS office
... Westchester County...
Somers 4.3 800 am 1/16 public
Armonk 3.5 740 am 1/16 public
Port Chester 3.1 900 am 1/16 public
Mount Kisco 2.5 420 am 1/16 trained spotter
Eastchester 2.3 855 am 1/16 public
Hartsdale 2.1 900 am 1/16 public
Yonkers 2.0 900 am 1/16 broadcast media
Rye 1.5 915 am 1/16 public
Scarsdale 1.0 630 am 1/16 public
**********************24 hour snowfall**********************
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Weather weenies watch for a developing storm 10 days from now.
So far our weather looks mostly cold and dry after tonight. But, something could be brewing for the middle or end of next week. A major snow, perhaps.
Tuesday presents a chance for snow and then another one may come around Friday of next week. At least there is something to watch for, but, as so many have said, the models are underwhelming this season, in their predictive capabilities.
Tuesday presents a chance for snow and then another one may come around Friday of next week. At least there is something to watch for, but, as so many have said, the models are underwhelming this season, in their predictive capabilities.
Monday, January 14, 2013
From Tri State Weather on Facebook
Colder on the way, maybe some snow.
It turns colder Monday night and on Tuesday night some snow, ice pellets and rain will occur and then end, sometime Wednesday morning.
The only hint of a big snow is about Jan. 22. Only 2 models show it, one showing a weak snowstorm, the other a classic. Right in the New York Metro area.
Looking at the 12Z GFS, it is in fairly close agreement, with the clipper like storm, that hits the Great Lakes and then, New York upstate, and New England. The track is similar, but about a day earlier. So the 20th of Jan. to the 22nd looks favorable in those northern areas for windy, cold and snowy conditions. New Jersey might see snow showers, and more certainly, windy and cold conditions as the storm brushes by to our north.
Waiting on the 12Z Euro after 2 pm this afternoon. Once we get within 5 days of this POTENTIAL storm, the picture will come into focus. The models have been performing poorly , more than 5 days out.
12Z Euro Update: The Great Lakes Storm is still on the chart and a cold blast of Arctic air follows in its' wake.
Jan. 22- a long shot chance for heavy snow.
The only hint of a big snow is about Jan. 22. Only 2 models show it, one showing a weak snowstorm, the other a classic. Right in the New York Metro area.
Looking at the 12Z GFS, it is in fairly close agreement, with the clipper like storm, that hits the Great Lakes and then, New York upstate, and New England. The track is similar, but about a day earlier. So the 20th of Jan. to the 22nd looks favorable in those northern areas for windy, cold and snowy conditions. New Jersey might see snow showers, and more certainly, windy and cold conditions as the storm brushes by to our north.
Waiting on the 12Z Euro after 2 pm this afternoon. Once we get within 5 days of this POTENTIAL storm, the picture will come into focus. The models have been performing poorly , more than 5 days out.
12Z Euro Update: The Great Lakes Storm is still on the chart and a cold blast of Arctic air follows in its' wake.
Jan. 22- a long shot chance for heavy snow.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Forecasters are frustrated, because the models are so unstable and unreliable since November.
A turn to colder is assured this week but beyond that, there are many doubts. The models have been showing an extreme turn to cold, but mostly dry, weather after Jan. 20th. You can see in the maps below what has been going on. A safer bet is that it will become colder than normal but the extreme cold may not actually prove out. It is best not to trust any scenario beyond 5 or 6 days.
New York, New England howler 9 days from now.
Euro shows very strong, very cold, storm running from the Great lakes to New England in 9 days.
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Weather turns colder Jan. 16 and more so after Jan. 21
It is increasingly likely now, that we may see severe cold by the Jan. 21 to 23rd. time frame. DT at Wxrisk is sounding the warnings. While the severe cold is not certain the maps are getting very impressive.
Best CHANCE of snow Jan. 17, 18 .... Jan. 20 - 23rd. A chance, not a blizzard, more like 1 to 3 inches or 3 to 6 inches.
NYC might hit near zero after Jan. 20th.
********************************************
FROM Wxrisk, excerpt from latest post:
Best CHANCE of snow Jan. 17, 18 .... Jan. 20 - 23rd. A chance, not a blizzard, more like 1 to 3 inches or 3 to 6 inches.
NYC might hit near zero after Jan. 20th.
********************************************
FROM Wxrisk, excerpt from latest post:
BIG JAKE ... SEVERE / MAYBE HISTORIC COLD FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY INCREASINGLY LIKELY 2nd HALF OF JAN
by Wxrisk.com on Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 11:46am ·
SUMMARY-- NON WEATHER GEEK TALK..There
are major changes coming to the pattern and winter is going to make a
monstrous counteroffensive. The first cold air or arctic outbreak will
hit JAN 16-18. This FIRST blast of cold air will NOT t penetrate
into the Deep South because the pattern has not yet change completely.
The 1st blast of cold air will reach as far south as Missouri
Kentucky and Virginia. That cold air mass will slide off the coast on
January 19 as a pattern undergoes a massive change and a new arctic air
mass with possibly severe cold will arrive over much of the country
east the Rockies JAN 19 along the U.S. Canada border... JAN 20
into the Upper Plains and Midwest and JAN 21 over the East
coast and Deep South. This arctic outbreak will will get HUGE
amount of media play... it will affect Homes buisness ski resorts
energy demand . this aint no game flash ....
Friday, January 11, 2013
Historic cold wave week of Jan. 20th, on GFS. Will it happen?
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Yes, the cold air is heading for North America, but.
Canada, the Rockies and the Northern Plains are in North America , and it is looking like the cold air will concentrate there.
To get a complete turn around in our mostly mild winter in the Northeast is not very likely. Latest developments in the MJO and Pacific Ocean temperatures , do not favor a long cold spell in New Jersey. From Jan. 18th to about the end of the month, may bring us a short lived cold spell and maybe a winter storm.
A winter storm could be snow, ice, rain or all three.
As I stated earlier this month, the Pacific jet stream winds, a southeast ridge and unfavorable ridge in the Pacific ocean continue to work against us.
It will be very cold in Canada the next couple of weeks.
12Z Euro looks cold, so it has everyone guessing as to just how this will go. Stay tuned.
The bottom line is we won't know until it is 4 or 5 days away.
To get a complete turn around in our mostly mild winter in the Northeast is not very likely. Latest developments in the MJO and Pacific Ocean temperatures , do not favor a long cold spell in New Jersey. From Jan. 18th to about the end of the month, may bring us a short lived cold spell and maybe a winter storm.
A winter storm could be snow, ice, rain or all three.
As I stated earlier this month, the Pacific jet stream winds, a southeast ridge and unfavorable ridge in the Pacific ocean continue to work against us.
It will be very cold in Canada the next couple of weeks.
12Z Euro looks cold, so it has everyone guessing as to just how this will go. Stay tuned.
The bottom line is we won't know until it is 4 or 5 days away.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Long-Range Forecast Model Sends Cold into the East - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Long-Range Forecast Model Sends Cold into the East - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
The much advertised trend to colder after this very warm weekend coming up. click here ^
The much advertised trend to colder after this very warm weekend coming up. click here ^
Monday, January 7, 2013
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Cold wave by the last part of January or will it be just a return to seasonal?
I don't believe the hints at severe cold for New Jersey, New York Metro around Jan. 20th. The strong Pacific jet stream wind, a Southeast ridge and a PNA that is too far West means the cold air will struggle to get here.
Canada will experience extreme cold, but I doubt that it gets past New England. We will see.
It is looking like the cold front will get hung up over the Eastern US, with lots of stormy weather and a variety of frozen precip. and rain. Some snow is possible along with ice. All after this coming mild week.
Canada will experience extreme cold, but I doubt that it gets past New England. We will see.
It is looking like the cold front will get hung up over the Eastern US, with lots of stormy weather and a variety of frozen precip. and rain. Some snow is possible along with ice. All after this coming mild week.
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Brutal Cold Waves Could be Heading for the U.S.
Brutal Cold Waves Could be Heading for the U.S.
3rd. week of January? click here ^
Accuweather is jumping on to the cold outbreak bandwagon. Sort of.
3rd. week of January? click here ^
Accuweather is jumping on to the cold outbreak bandwagon. Sort of.
Storm for the plains states on Jan. 13th or perhaps later, will change our weather, afterward.
Friday, January 4, 2013
A Signal for Very Cold Weather? - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
A Signal for Very Cold Weather? - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
In maybe 2 weeks, there could be a major cold wave. But where? Click here ^
In maybe 2 weeks, there could be a major cold wave. But where? Click here ^
Long-Range Model Finally Catching on to Pattern Changes? - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Long-Range Model Finally Catching on to Pattern Changes? - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
There is a lot of buzz about stratospheric warming now. If this warming trend in the stratosphere continues, it could mean colder weather in the CONUS. That would be in a week or two. Right now we will have a milding trend over the next week coming up.
click on link above ^
There is a lot of buzz about stratospheric warming now. If this warming trend in the stratosphere continues, it could mean colder weather in the CONUS. That would be in a week or two. Right now we will have a milding trend over the next week coming up.
click on link above ^
Thursday, January 3, 2013
After looking over the situation here is my view.
January started out cold and this will continue for another day or two. We will have a mild trend next week, ending in a rain storm followed by more seasonal cold. Stratospheric warming has begun and if it continues it will produce colder conditions, again. ( Jan. 17-22 looks cold) There will be a couple of Great Lakes storms ahead and eventually one will be forced east toward the coast bringing us some snow later in January.
I do not expect a big snow in NJ this month. The Pacific jet and a southeast ridge is working against us. Most storms will cut to the Great Lakes as they have been doing. The Rockies and upper Midwest are the best places for cold and snow. It might turn cold for a time as we get near February.
More or less a mediocre winter with some snow/ice but usually rain. We need a big ridge over the Western states and we are not getting that, so, no long cold waves for us.
This is what I can surmise from DT at Wxrisk, Steve D. at NYNJPA Weather and Accuweather's Henry M. and Elliot A.
Not a winter to get excited about on the East Coast, so far. But then February is our snowiest month historically, so, who knows?
Update: Some models are showing a cold outbreak around 2 weeks hence.
I do not expect a big snow in NJ this month. The Pacific jet and a southeast ridge is working against us. Most storms will cut to the Great Lakes as they have been doing. The Rockies and upper Midwest are the best places for cold and snow. It might turn cold for a time as we get near February.
More or less a mediocre winter with some snow/ice but usually rain. We need a big ridge over the Western states and we are not getting that, so, no long cold waves for us.
This is what I can surmise from DT at Wxrisk, Steve D. at NYNJPA Weather and Accuweather's Henry M. and Elliot A.
Not a winter to get excited about on the East Coast, so far. But then February is our snowiest month historically, so, who knows?
Update: Some models are showing a cold outbreak around 2 weeks hence.
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
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