Forecasters are frustrated, because the models are so unstable and unreliable since November.

A turn to colder is assured this week but beyond that, there are many doubts.  The models have been showing an extreme turn to cold, but mostly dry, weather after Jan. 20th.  You can see in the maps below what has been going on.  A safer bet is that it will become colder than normal but the extreme cold may not actually prove out.  It is best not to trust any scenario beyond 5 or 6 days.