FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST

This winter appears to be a typical wild ride with wide swings in temperature and types of precipitation. There will be 2 main storm tracks, one toward the Great Lakes region ( not a snowmaker for NJ. ) and the other track is the coastal storm track, which can cause major snow. Right now, it looks like the Great Lakes track will predominate. So, the winter will average out mild to near normal. The Midwest will usually get the most snow and cold.

All this appears to be the result of an El Nino which will be just strong enough to spare the Northeast from a brutal winter.. But there will be storms , wind,rain and snow aplenty. You just won't be shoveling it all winter long.


Having said that, after a storny Wednesday and Thursday, we will have colder weather settling in this Saturday and for the next 7 to 10 days afterward. The mild days of November are about to become only a memory, at least for a while. Remember, winter is just starting. A major cold air invasion will hit Canada late this week. This could lead to a very cold outbreak here in mid- December.

My winter forecast will be updated just before Christmas, because there definitely are mixed signals on the upcoming winter.

As famed weather historian David Ludlum once said, " The weather will always surprise you! " .

Thanksgiving, weather shifts gears.

Fairly mild November weather for a few more days, then wet cooler conditions develop.Chance of rain Mon. and Tues.

Thanksgiving

Partly cloudy, chance of pm showers, turning colder.

Black Friday mostly cloudy, cold some showers/ snow flurries.

Dec 2,3 rain followed by colder weather.

Snow likely in upstate New York Friday.

Mostly sunny week ahead

Monday will be mild with the remainder of the week being mostly to partly sunny with temps in the 50's. But then, last week was supposed to be quiet also and we wound up with a Nor'easter that pounded the Jersey shore.

GLOBAL WARMING CONTINUES

World-wide the month of September was the 5th warmest on record. But not here.

TWO Schools of thought on the upcoming winter.

Most long range forecasters are looking for a cold, snowy winter. The opposing view ( somewhat ) is that a fairly strong El Nino,is going to cause a split jetstream, giving us a widely variable winter , with more wet than white.

I will make my own winter forecast after Thanksgiving.

SIBERIA UPDATE

Verhoyansk, Russia - 47 below zero

No big weather events here for at least a week, little or no rain.,with just a little maybe Wednesday.

One computer model shows a powerful Noreaster for Wed. and Thurs. this week, the other shows nothing. Which to believe?


RAIN/SNOW possible Nov. 22

Seasonably chilly and partly cloudy all week and probably into next weekend.

November is winter weather forecast month. During this time, the pattern for the coming winter becomes more clear.