Saturday, August 27, 2011

55mph gust at Brigantine, NJ..... NWS Warnings

... Hurricane Warning remains in effect...

... Probability of tropical storm/hurricane conditions...
the chance for hurricane conditions at this time is 3 to
10 percent. Also... the chance for tropical storm conditions at
this time is up to 91 percent.

... Winds...
as Hurricane Irene approaches... sustained tropical storm force
winds are expected to begin late this evening... with hurricane
force winds developing early Sunday morning. Maximum winds are
forecast to be in the 55 to 75 mph range with gusts up to 85 mph.

Damaging winds are likely. Homes may have damage to shingles...
siding... gutters and windows... especially if these items are not
properly secured. Loose outdoor items will become airborne...
causing additional damage and possible injury. Power lines will
be knocked down by falling trees... resulting in widespread power
outages. Many large branches of trees will be snapped... and a
numerous trees will be uprooted.

... Tornadoes...
isolated tornadoes are possible across Long Island... coastal
Connecticut... and the New York City Metro area as intense rain
bands move in from the south tonight.

... Storm surge and storm tide...
storm surge is highly dependent on track... intensity... and speed
of the storm as it approaches the coast. The combined effects of
storm surge and storm tide pose a serious threat with several
feet of water inundation possible along coastal locations.

Based on the forecast track of Hurricane Irene... there is
potential for 4 to 8 feet of surge across western Long Island
Sound and New York Harbor... with 3 to 5 ft of surge along the
South Shore bays of Long Island and New York City... Peconic and
gardiners bays... and eastern Long Island from early Sunday
morning into early Sunday afternoon. These tidal conditions will
be aggravated by accompanying large... destructive... and life
threatening waves on top of the storm surge.

High tide across New York Harbor and the South Shore of western
Long Island is around 8 am Sunday. In a worst case scenario...
water levels of 8 to 10 ft above msl are possible.

High tide across western Long Island Sound is around 11 am
Sunday. In a worst case scenario... water levels of 10 to 11 ft
above msl are possible.

High tide across eastern Long Island Sound is around 9 am Sunday.
In a worst case scenario... water levels of 7 to 8 ft above msl
are possible.

There is a 10 percent chance of the worst case scenario.

... Inland flooding...
a Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. Rainfall amounts
of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. See
the latest forecast for the most updated information. Listen for
possible flood warnings for your location... and be ready to act
if flooding rains occur.

... Coastal hazards...
increasingly large swells arriving from Hurricane Irene will
create high surf... significant beach erosion and washovers along
the Atlantic facing coastline tonight into Monday.

Significant beach erosion is also likely along the coastline of
Long Island Sound and Peconic and gardiners bays due to the surge
and battering surf.

... Rip currents...
dangerous and life threatening rip currents are expected through
Monday.

Hurricane Irene Tracking Map - NYTimes.com

Hurricane Irene Tracking Map - NYTimes.com

Excellent interactive map.

NY NJ Metro feeling early effects of Irene and many watches and warnings have been issued.

Grand Central Station closed tonight.  Many NYC facilities and attractions are also closed.

Tornado watch in NJ. 

FLOOD Warnings have already been issued. 

Travel is not feasible for safety reasons.


FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...
DELAWARE...

  ASSUNPINK CREEK AT TRENTON AFFECTING MERCER COUNTY
  BRANDYWINE CREEK AT CHADDS FORD AFFECTING CHESTER AND DELAWARE
  COUNTIES
  BRANDYWINE CREEK AT WILMINGTON AFFECTING NEW CASTLE COUNTY
  BRODHEAD CREEK AT MINISINK HILLS AFFECTING MONROE COUNTY
  BUSH KILL AT SHOEMAKERS AFFECTING MONROE COUNTY
  DELAWARE RIVER AT EASTON-PHILLIPSBURG BRIDGE AFFECTING WARREN...
  NORTHAMPTON AND HUNTERDON COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT RIEGELSVILLE AFFECTING HUNTERDON...MERCER AND BUCKS
  COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT FRENCHTOWN AFFECTING HUNTERDON AND BUCKS COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT STOCKTON AFFECTING HUNTERDON AND BUCKS COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT NEW HOPE-LAMBERTVILLE BRIDGE AFFECTING HUNTERDON...
  MERCER AND BUCKS COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT WASHINGTON`S CROSSING AFFECTING HUNTERDON...MERCER
  AND BUCKS COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT TRENTON AFFECTING MERCER AND BUCKS COUNTIES
  LEHIGH RIVER AT WALNUTPORT AFFECTING LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES
  LEHIGH RIVER AT BETHLEHEM AFFECTING LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES
  MILLSTONE RIVER AT BLACKWELLS MILLS AFFECTING SOMERSET COUNTY
  NESHAMINY CREEK AT LANGHORNE AFFECTING BUCKS COUNTY
  PASSAIC RIVER AT MILLINGTON AFFECTING MORRIS AND SOMERSET COUNTIES
  PASSAIC RIVER AT CHATHAM AFFECTING MORRIS AND SOMERSET COUNTIES
  PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK AFFECTING ESSEX...MORRIS AND PASSAIC
  COUNTIES
  PASSAIC RIVER AT LITTLE FALLS AFFECTING ESSEX AND PASSAIC COUNTIES
  PEQUANNOCK RIVER BELOW MACOPIN DAM AFFECTING MORRIS AND PASSAIC
  COUNTIES
  PERKIOMEN CREEK AT GRATERFORD AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY
  POMPTON RIVER AT POMPTON PLAINS AFFECTING MORRIS AND PASSAIC COUNTIES
  RAMAPO RIVER AT POMPTON LAKES AFFECTING BERGEN...MORRIS AND PASSAIC
  COUNTIES
  NORTH BRANCH RANCOCAS CREEK AT PEMBERTON AFFECTING BURLINGTON COUNTY
  SOUTH BRANCH RARITAN RIVER AT STANTON AFFECTING HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET
  COUNTIES
  NORTH BRANCH RARITAN RIVER AT RARITAN AFFECTING SOMERSET COUNTY
  RARITAN RIVER AT MANVILLE AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND SOMERSET COUNTIES
  RARITAN RIVER AT BOUND BROOK AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND SOMERSET COUNTIES
  ROCKAWAY RIVER AT BOONTON ABOVE THE RESERVOIR AFFECTING MORRIS COUNTY
  ROCKAWAY RIVER AT BOONTON BELOW THE RESERVOIR AFFECTING MORRIS COUNTY
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT POTTSTOWN AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT NORRISTOWN AFFECTING CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT PHILADELPHIA AFFECTING PHILADELPHIA AND MONTGOMERY
  COUNTIES

THESE WARNINGS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED RAINFALL THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY, PLUS
ADDITIONAL RAIN OF UP TO 8 INCHES IN SOME AREAS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THESE RIVER FORECASTS IS HIGH BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR DATA, CURRENT RAIN GAGE DATA, AND CURRENT TRACK FORECASTS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE IRENE, IF LESS RAIN FALLS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THESE RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE LOWER.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

NJC013-027-031-280205-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FL.W.0102.110828T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/PINN4.3.ER.110828T1200Z.110830T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
406 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  THE PASSAIC RIVER AT PINE BROOK.
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
  CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 23.0 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...FLOODING STRETCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
  ON MONTVILLE. LOWER HOOK MOUNTAIN ROAD IS SUBJECT TO CLOSURES.

$$




Flood Warning

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Saturday Updates on Irene plus Selected Cities Irene Weather

Friday, August 26, 2011

Tropical Floater Two Rainbow Imagery Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

Tropical Floater Two Rainbow Imagery Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

Flash video of Irene from the NHC.

Satellite images shows Irene gaining some strength once again.

Notice the very large nature of this hurricane in the image on this page. from  NHC.

Tropical Floater Two Rainbow Imagery Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

Tropical Floater Two Rainbow Imagery Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

Video from NHC showing a weakening storm. A day of hurricane force winds are less likely but we will have a very strong tropical storm with heavy rains.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER.  ALTHOUGH PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 111 KT...SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A HIGHER-THAN-TYPICAL REDUCTION OF THE
WIND FROM FLIGHT-LEVEL TO THE SURFACE APPLIES...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT.  GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE
AND PREDICTED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER PASSING NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE
AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS
ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND.

IRENE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  IRENE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO CHANGE WAS
REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.

ONLY A SMALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE HURRICANE WARNING ON THIS
ADVISORY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
AREAS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
Despite the forecasts, from what is seen in the satellite videos, at this time the hurricane appears to be weakening. The heavy rain and flooding threat will remain.

An intense hurricane has an appearance of an orange doughnut and this storm does not.

Hurricane Irene... Similar to the Hurricane of 1821?

Hurricane Irene... Similar to the Hurricane of 1821?  

" some reports suggest that the Hudson River rose 13 feet in one hour" ...in 1821. 

In 1821 lower Manhattan was completely flooded. Click on link above. Weather Bell .com.

Tri-State Weather

Tri-State Weather

The link above is a great information source.

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Video about Irene and Damage Is Ready

Hurricane Watches posted.  Hurricane warning for Jersey shore from Cape May to Sandy Hook.

Euro computer model shows the eye passing over Asbury Park and Belmar as a Cat. #1 or 2 storm.  The Euro has been the most accurate with this storm. 

NHC updates at 11am, 2pm, 5 pm today.  The track should be pretty accurate today, but until the storm passes Cape Hatteras on Saturday, the track is still not certain.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Irene: New York City, Mid-Atlantic Put on High Alert

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Irene: New York City, Mid-Atlantic Put on High Alert

Mandatory evacuation for all of Cape May county, NJ.

Forecaster at WXrisk.com expects 80 to 100 mph winds over eastern NJ.  40 to 60 mph over much of the rest of NJ.

 A storm surge of 10 feet in some areas that are most vulnerable.

The storm may track from Delaware Bay to Atlantic City to JFK airport.

AccuWeather.com - Weather Video

AccuWeather.com - Weather Video

HURRICANE! eye of the storm may pass over NJ.

gfs_pcp_078m.gif (GIF Image, 1024x768 pixels)

Weather map image 78 hours from now.

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England : Weather Underground

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England : Weather Underground

Prepare for a worst case scenario, just in case the storm hits here full force. Heavy rain, coastal and river flooding, high winds, trees toppled, power outages are very possible if not likely.

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Dangerous Irene Shifts West and Now Things will be Very Bad

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Dangerous Irene Shifts West and Now Things will be Very Bad

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Irene: New York City, Mid-Atlantic Put on High Alert

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Irene: New York City, Mid-Atlantic Put on High Alert

DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE:

Amateur forecasters calling for 8 to 12" of rain.

National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Here is the latest from the Hurricane Center.

Irene will impact NY,NJ this weekend!!!

**********ALERT ! *************

Irene is trending closer to New Jersey on the late night model maps at midnight.  Bad weather is likely this weekend. Very strong winds and heavy rain will likely ensue, from a strong storm hugging the coastline and may plow right into the 5 boroughs of New York city.  The Friday morning forecast should give a clear view of what may happen. The storm is still 3 days away, and a change in path will change the forecasts.

This is a dangerous storm that can produce flooding rains and high winds especially nearer the coast.  Hurricane force winds are possible. 

In New York City it is even conceivable for flooding to develop from Canal Street on south to the Battery.  Stay Tuned!

Click home or more recent posts below.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Hurricane Season Wundermap : Weather Underground

Hurricane Season Wundermap : Weather Underground

There is a debate on whether the storm heads for Montauk or more west right into NJ.  It should be a strong storm( cat. 2 ) and I think the Friday morning forecast will have the track fairly well defined by then.  My hunch is that it will come almost over NJ, near Delaware bay, then maybe to Queens, NY. That is my guess.  I base this on the tendency seen in winter storms that show a path over the ocean early on, then bring the storm closer to land  2 / 3  days before the storm.  But this is a hurricane.

Hurricane Irene : Storm Coordinates : Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene : Storm Coordinates : Weather Underground

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

New York/ New Jersey Metro, may be the target for Hurricane Irene this Sunday.

A concern is that one, usually reliable, model brings the storm into New Jersey near Delaware Bay.  A better picture of the path will form by the Friday morning forecast time.  stay tuned.

Hurricane Irene : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground

The storm will brush NJ on Sunday afternoon, in the 5 day weather forecast.  Keep in mind that a 300 mile error can easily occur 5 days out.  New Jersey marine interests should keep a watch on this storm. The very latest update has the storm making a direct hit on New York City.  Much uncertainty about this weekend.

Hurricane Irene : 5 Day Forecast Map : Weather Underground

Monday, August 22, 2011

Hurricane Irene : Storm-Centered Satellite Image : Weather Underground

WEATHER BALLOONER Northern New Jersey: Hurricane Irene is a potetial threat to the Easter...

WEATHER BALLOONER Northern New Jersey: Hurricane Irene is a potetial threat to the Easter...: Early speculation is that Irene will affect either North or South Carolina and be somewhere in the area of Long Island, NY by next Monday as...

Hurricane Irene : Tracking Map : Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene : Tracking Map : Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene is a potetial threat to the Eastern US, in several more days.

Early speculation is that Irene will affect either North or South Carolina and be somewhere in the area of Long Island, NY by next Monday as a category 1 hurricane, perhaps.  It is too early to be certain.

Image The WeatherUnderground. weatherunderground.com

Hurricane Irene : Storm-Centered Satellite Image : Weather Underground

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Penn State E Wall : All the weather charts you could ask for.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

Models, maps, satellites etc.

Autumn like weather pattern takes hold until further notice. Up to 10 " of rain possible in some areas.

Click below for further info. ( Newer post.  Home.)


Is summer ending? Flash flood watch.

Special Video Discussion for August, 14, 2011: Heavy Rain Storm

Special Video Discussion for August, 14, 2011: Heavy Rain Storm

From NYNJPA Weather.com, a comprehensive weather source for New York Metro, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, weather forecast discussion, forecast video, local details.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH !!!

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southern Connecticut... northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York... including the following areas... in
southern Connecticut... northern Fairfield... northern New
Haven... southern Fairfield and southern New Haven. In
northeast New Jersey... eastern Bergen... eastern Essex...
eastern Passaic... eastern Union... Hudson... western Bergen...
western Essex and western Union. In southeast New York...
Bronx... Kings (Brooklyn)... New York (Manhattan)... northern
Nassau... northern Queens... northern Westchester... northwestern
Suffolk... Putnam... Richmond (staten island)... Rockland...
southern Nassau... southern Queens... southern Westchester and
southwestern Suffolk.

* Through Monday evening

* an additional 1 to two and one half inches of rainfall... with
locally higher amounts possible... is forecast to fall in the
watch area... on top of any rainfall that fell through this
afternoon. This could result in the flash flooding of urban
areas and fast responding small streams and creeks located
across most of northeast New Jersey... southeast New York... and
southwestern Connecticut.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.