First Bobsled Gold Medal in 6 decades.
SORRY,no blizzard this week.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Snow Concerns Mid-Week Lessen Somewhat, and Rain Concerns the Week After. If it isn't one thing it's another.
Sunday update:
The storm for Tuesday and Wednesday still looks like it will just miss giving us a heavy snow, only a light amount may occur. But since it is a close call, it has to be watched closely.
While it is far from a sure thing, there may be more snow this week. Another low may turn up the east coast Tuesday into Wednesday. The computer models show a track off shore and too far to bring in heavy precipitation. The trend this winter has been that as the event approaches, the track adjusts more north and west. This means the late Tuesday storm must be watched for a similar development.
Sooner or later the train of storms will warm up enough to bring rain and that means the potential for floods. A sizable and warmer storm is already showing up on the long range maps.
More below......
Friday, February 26, 2010
Photo: J. Chmura
But I have promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep.
- Robert Frost
Oh no! Another snowstorm March 3rd.?
The GFS forecast model, as of noon today, shows yet another coastal storm headed up the east coast next week. In another year, there might not be much to get excited about, but this year the odds of seeing yet another big snow are pretty good. We still have a negative NAO, blocking near Greenland, a trough over the Northeast, and an active train of storms moving across the country. And still just enough cold air to get it to snow again. We aren't done yet!
Why is this winter so bad? It's all a matter of perspective. We have had many easy winters for decades. Now, things have swung back to the way winters used to be. At least for a while, it will feel like Global Warming has been put on hold. But it hasn't really. When it is cold here, it usually is warm someplace else.
BOWLING FOR BLIZZARDS PART 5! THE WEATHER WILL ALWAYS SURPRISE YOU !
Beware the Ides of March.
SNOW TOTALS in inches. February 26,2010
...MORRIS COUNTY...
OAK RIDGE 16.0
ROCKAWAY 15.0
BUTLER 12.0 .BERGEN COUNTY... FORT LEE 20.0 100 PM 2/26
TENAFLY 20.0 230 PM 2/26
RIDGEWOOD 16.3 400 PM 2/26
HASBROUCK HEIGHTS 14.2 227 PM 2/26
NORTHVALE 14.0 258 PM 2/26
GARFIELD 12.4 1015 AM 2/26
FAIR LAWN 12.0 326 PM 2/26
WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP 11.0 100 PM 2/26
PALISADES PARK 9.0 100 PM 2/26
...ESSEX COUNTY...
BLOOMFIELD 16.0 330 PM 2/26
WEST ORANGE 15.7 1100 AM 2/26
NEWARK 14.9 400 PM 2/26
CEDAR GROVE 14.3 1100 AM 2/26
...HUDSON COUNTY...
HOBOKEN 16.3 400 PM 2/26
KEARNY 12.5 1015 AM 2/26
...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WEST MILFORD 28.0 1015 AM 2/26
WAYNE 17.0 1220 PM 2/26
...UNION COUNTY...
ROSELLE 21.4 1130 AM 2/26
FANWOOD 17.3 145 PM 2/26
ROSELLE PARK 16.2 128 PM 2/26
ELIZABETH 13.0 1025 AM 2/26
PLAINFIELD 11.5 1145 AM 2/26
SPRINGFIELD 11.0 1120 AM 2/26
Many motorists stranded on I-84 near exit 15, some since Thursday evening.
MOST SNOW : WEST MILFORD, NJ , 28 inches as reported by NWS.
................ Monroe, NY, 31 inches.
............................... NYC, Central Park, 20 inches.
The 4 th. biggest snow of all time. Right behind the famous Blizzard of March 12, 1888.
MOST SNOW : WEST MILFORD, NJ , 28 inches as reported by NWS.
................ Monroe, NY, 31 inches.
............................... NYC, Central Park, 20 inches.
The 4 th. biggest snow of all time. Right behind the famous Blizzard of March 12, 1888.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Bowling for BLIZZARDS Part 4: It's A STRIKE!
Forecast: It is going to keep on snowing and snowing and snowing and snowing...............
Before dawn this morning, the radio, 1010 WINS, reported rain in all areas, with some snow mixed in here and there. Then around daybreak, almost in a flash, all areas had switched over to all snow.
We are now in the Snow Olympics. 20 inches or bust.
939 pm
Blowing and drifting snow, strong winds, heavier snow
8:47 pm UPDATE
Temperatures dropping to below freezing, and winds are increasing. The low pressure center is heading west by northwest toward Long Island.
West Milford, 12 inches
Wayne, 8 inches
Ridgewood , 4.5 inches
NYC, Central Park, 5.5 inches
5:00 pm UPDATE
Latest breaking news from the Blizzard Desk, at Weather Balloon Central:
Latest NWS forecast is for snow until Monday, but the accumulating snow, may end Friday night.
15 to 20 inches total predicted and that may be on the light side.
Here at WEATHER BALLOON CENTRAL we have 5 inches of wet, heavy snow. Trees are cracking under the weight of the snow and one is leaning and bending a power line. It is too treacherous to wander about.
Very heavy snow, is likely tonight with increasing winds. Lighter snow will continue through the daylight hours, Friday.
Before dawn this morning, the radio, 1010 WINS, reported rain in all areas, with some snow mixed in here and there. Then around daybreak, almost in a flash, all areas had switched over to all snow.
We are now in the Snow Olympics. 20 inches or bust.
939 pm
Blowing and drifting snow, strong winds, heavier snow
8:47 pm UPDATE
Temperatures dropping to below freezing, and winds are increasing. The low pressure center is heading west by northwest toward Long Island.
West Milford, 12 inches
Wayne, 8 inches
Ridgewood , 4.5 inches
NYC, Central Park, 5.5 inches
5:00 pm UPDATE
Latest breaking news from the Blizzard Desk, at Weather Balloon Central:
Latest NWS forecast is for snow until Monday, but the accumulating snow, may end Friday night.
15 to 20 inches total predicted and that may be on the light side.
Here at WEATHER BALLOON CENTRAL we have 5 inches of wet, heavy snow. Trees are cracking under the weight of the snow and one is leaning and bending a power line. It is too treacherous to wander about.
Very heavy snow, is likely tonight with increasing winds. Lighter snow will continue through the daylight hours, Friday.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
BOWLING FOR BLIZZARDS Part 3, Mr. Backwards Snowstorm is Ready to Strike!
This one sounds like a real bad boy.
I never saw a snowstorm come in from the Atlantic Ocean and bring us heavy snow but, tomorrow that will happen. 6 to 12 inches seems like a good bet for most areas. The weather conditions will go downhill all day tomorrow and into the night. Heavy winds are forecast with gust to 40 to 60 mph. The high elevations may see 12 to 24 inches.
This will be a very rare and memorable storm.
11:00 pm UPDATE
2 computer models predict 18 to 20 inches of snow for North Jersey.
Widely varying snow total predictions continue.
6:00 pm update
Tomorrow morning may begin as rain or a mix but will switch to all snow later as colder air works in.
Forecasts for snow totals vary widely.
( Andover, in Sussex County, ranges from 4 to 8 inches, up to 12 to 24 inches, depending on who you ask )
10 to 16 inches is widely expected, with lower amounts to the east in NYC and Long Island. The winds will strengthen Thursday afternoon. Gusts to 40 mph and much higher, may occur in some areas.
Higher elevations, north and west, will approach the 2 foot mark.
The snow may not end until Friday night or Saturday, but will not be falling as heavily later on.
This storm reminds me of some of the storms of the 1960's when forecasts for snow totals, would change constantly, through the storm. You did not know what you would get, until it was on the ground. In the confusion of a crippling snowstorm, forecast figures get misinterpreted or mixed up.
The duration of the snow, may be very long, indeed. I suspect that the storm center will stall over Long Island, or very near to it. Other storms have done this in the past. I don't think that the storm will loop over NJ and PA. Instead, it will be near Long Island. So NJ gets plenty of snow, as long as a dry slot does not shut off the snow.
The winds will be very strong, but the 50 to 60 mph gusts will occur in limited areas. The heavy, wet, snow and wind will cause power failures in many places.
AND WOULD YOU BELIEVE...........
The GFS forecast model showed a stalling snowstorm near NJ over a week ago? Who woulda thunk it would actually happen? I can't recall a stalling, looping, snowstorm since 1978.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Questions Abound on the Thursday to Friday Storm
A moderate amount of snow seems likely for Thursday night and Friday morning. The latest NWS forecast just went snowier.
Two of the forecast models are very aggressive showing as much as 6 inches or more. Would you believe 8 to 16 inches? It has to be mentioned at this point, but it is not in the forecast.
Today will be mostly rainy but, up county areas could get 4 to 6 inches of snow.
Two of the forecast models are very aggressive showing as much as 6 inches or more. Would you believe 8 to 16 inches? It has to be mentioned at this point, but it is not in the forecast.
Today will be mostly rainy but, up county areas could get 4 to 6 inches of snow.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Snow, ice, rain, Tuesday afternoon, snowy rainy mid- week, a rare snow event Thursday and Friday?
Tuesday, snow and ice, then rain.
Thursday and Friday a rare snowfall on a northwest wind may occur. High winds are possible over 50 mph! 2 to 4 inches is possible, according to Accuweather.com. The storm will move more or less backwards from out in the Atlantic Ocean and in toward New England and New York State. This is so unusual, that it is hard to believe that we will actually see it.
New Jersey will get only the fringe effects with light to moderate snow and very windy conditions.
To our north a very heavy snowfall seems likely along with heavy wind and power outages.
This is a very dynamic and changeable situation and the official forecasts should be watched closely. If it goes bust, then, we are off the hook.
Thursday and Friday a rare snowfall on a northwest wind may occur. High winds are possible over 50 mph! 2 to 4 inches is possible, according to Accuweather.com. The storm will move more or less backwards from out in the Atlantic Ocean and in toward New England and New York State. This is so unusual, that it is hard to believe that we will actually see it.
New Jersey will get only the fringe effects with light to moderate snow and very windy conditions.
To our north a very heavy snowfall seems likely along with heavy wind and power outages.
This is a very dynamic and changeable situation and the official forecasts should be watched closely. If it goes bust, then, we are off the hook.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 4:17 pm. Monday
Accumulating snow, ice freezing rain from 8 pm tonight into tomorrow! Check the latest National Weather Service Forecast. Around an inch tonight and more tomorrow.
Bowling for Blizzards part II......... Updated 11:19 am, Monday.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the NJ Highlands from 7 pm tonight into tomorrow. Accumulating snow and ice will occur. Check the National Weather Service forecast for your location.
This week, will bring unsettled weather, with snow,mix and rain. Some snow and ice may accumulate, even in Northeast NJ. Stay tuned.....
Little accumulation is expected, unless you live way up in the hills. The NWS office in Albany, speculates 30 inches of snow in the Adirondacks Tuesday into Wednesday, above 1000 ft. elevation. Wow!
The weather goes downhill late Monday. If we do get substantial accumulating snow, it could happen later in the week.
There is low confidence in these forecasts, and last minute changes could occur, so don't be surprised.
On the Long range, 3 computer models show a major storm for early March, which would be next Tuesday and Wednesday, next week. Henry Margusity let it slip out, that this is the big storm he has been waiting for. Check his blog at AccuWeather.com.
We have an unusual weather pattern this week, and upstate NY and New England could get a lot of snow over many days. The storm is just going to sit and spin up there. A part of the polar vortex, is involved in this pattern and this is not often seen.
The 12 z GFS looks snowy for us, Thursday night and Friday. It shows an unusual northwest wind bringing in snow. An unlikely, but not impossible snow producer. The low center is sitting over the lower Hudson Valley then, Long Island. All this is very touch and go 4 to 5 days away.
Spring is on the way, but we are not there yet.
The map above is the Friday GFS from NOAA , READY. A most unusual day!
This week, will bring unsettled weather, with snow,mix and rain. Some snow and ice may accumulate, even in Northeast NJ. Stay tuned.....
Little accumulation is expected, unless you live way up in the hills. The NWS office in Albany, speculates 30 inches of snow in the Adirondacks Tuesday into Wednesday, above 1000 ft. elevation. Wow!
The weather goes downhill late Monday. If we do get substantial accumulating snow, it could happen later in the week.
There is low confidence in these forecasts, and last minute changes could occur, so don't be surprised.
On the Long range, 3 computer models show a major storm for early March, which would be next Tuesday and Wednesday, next week. Henry Margusity let it slip out, that this is the big storm he has been waiting for. Check his blog at AccuWeather.com.
We have an unusual weather pattern this week, and upstate NY and New England could get a lot of snow over many days. The storm is just going to sit and spin up there. A part of the polar vortex, is involved in this pattern and this is not often seen.
The 12 z GFS looks snowy for us, Thursday night and Friday. It shows an unusual northwest wind bringing in snow. An unlikely, but not impossible snow producer. The low center is sitting over the lower Hudson Valley then, Long Island. All this is very touch and go 4 to 5 days away.
Spring is on the way, but we are not there yet.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Difficult forecasting for this week. Snow and rain or ice changing back and forth. An unsettled week of chilly weather ahead.
Sunday will be mostly sunny and rather mild by comparison to recent cold, breezy.
The stretch of tranquil weather will end Monday night and the rain/snow line will be very near our area as a low comes in from the west. A secondary low will form. So, we will be going back and forth between types of precipitation. Later in the week, yet another coastal low may affect us. Areas north and west will have the most snow. Some heavy snow is possible and the weather is unsettled, from Tuesday on.
Too early to say what may happen, although not much snow will accumulate, at least early on. Later in the week, will come the threat of snow.
An unusual retrograde motion, of a low near New England and a visit from the Polar Vortex, all will make for an interesting pattern of weather this week. A low will get stuck near or over New England.
The next 2 weeks look chilly and stormy.
Beware the ides of March. A large storm possible in early March.
The stretch of tranquil weather will end Monday night and the rain/snow line will be very near our area as a low comes in from the west. A secondary low will form. So, we will be going back and forth between types of precipitation. Later in the week, yet another coastal low may affect us. Areas north and west will have the most snow. Some heavy snow is possible and the weather is unsettled, from Tuesday on.
Too early to say what may happen, although not much snow will accumulate, at least early on. Later in the week, will come the threat of snow.
An unusual retrograde motion, of a low near New England and a visit from the Polar Vortex, all will make for an interesting pattern of weather this week. A low will get stuck near or over New England.
The next 2 weeks look chilly and stormy.
Beware the ides of March. A large storm possible in early March.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
LATE WINTER AT THE BOWLING ALLEY.........BOWLING FOR BLIZZARDS
There is just a string of storms heading across the USA. One of them is apt to produce a snowfall again.
And, at the end of the month, a big blizzard keeps showing up on the GFS and Euro forecast models, then disappearing, only to reappear. Then it goes to the Great Lakes or to Nova Scotia. But, given the winter we have had so far, snow seems almost unavoidable, over the upcoming week and beyond. Remember, the famed Blizzard of 1888, occured on March 12th. And the 1993 Superstorm, occured at that time too.
So winter is not over, even though this morning, the air seemed almost spring like. Notice how the sun is melting the snow in the sunny spots in your neighborhood. Spring will not be denied, only delayed this year.
AccuWeather.com and the National Weather Service, seem to agree, that we should not put away the snow removal equipment.
HAVING NO REPUTATION AS A FORECASTER TO PROTECT, HERE IS MY GUESSTIMATE ON NEXT TUESDAYS' SNOW.
About 6 inches seems like a likely outcome. Beginning Monday late, then ending sometime Tuesday.
Until then, partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and cold,
with a chance of a passing snow flurry.
Be aware, that a major storm may occur, at the end of the month.
And, at the end of the month, a big blizzard keeps showing up on the GFS and Euro forecast models, then disappearing, only to reappear. Then it goes to the Great Lakes or to Nova Scotia. But, given the winter we have had so far, snow seems almost unavoidable, over the upcoming week and beyond. Remember, the famed Blizzard of 1888, occured on March 12th. And the 1993 Superstorm, occured at that time too.
So winter is not over, even though this morning, the air seemed almost spring like. Notice how the sun is melting the snow in the sunny spots in your neighborhood. Spring will not be denied, only delayed this year.
AccuWeather.com and the National Weather Service, seem to agree, that we should not put away the snow removal equipment.
HAVING NO REPUTATION AS A FORECASTER TO PROTECT, HERE IS MY GUESSTIMATE ON NEXT TUESDAYS' SNOW.
About 6 inches seems like a likely outcome. Beginning Monday late, then ending sometime Tuesday.
Until then, partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and cold,
with a chance of a passing snow flurry.
Be aware, that a major storm may occur, at the end of the month.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Forecasters are unanimous, it won't warm up any time soon.
Mostly dry conditions except for some showers and flurries. No big storms until next week, when we could get snow or a mixture in the Monday to Wednesday time period.
After that, more cold air moves in. Some such as Accuweather and the NWS expect unusually cold arctic air to visit us again.
But the GFS and Euro show the Arctic air not advancing toward us. From what I have seen this winter, this seems wrong. The Euro has the storm heading to the Great Lakes, also probably not very likely.
Next week looks like the start of another train of storms. Can it be again?
The 18z GFS shows a blizzard right at the end of the month. While I don't really expect to see that one, there is not much sign of spring, either.
After that, more cold air moves in. Some such as Accuweather and the NWS expect unusually cold arctic air to visit us again.
But the GFS and Euro show the Arctic air not advancing toward us. From what I have seen this winter, this seems wrong. The Euro has the storm heading to the Great Lakes, also probably not very likely.
Next week looks like the start of another train of storms. Can it be again?
The 18z GFS shows a blizzard right at the end of the month. While I don't really expect to see that one, there is not much sign of spring, either.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
More light snow likely today. 3 to 5 inches.
A misbehaving snow system will bring us more snow today than first expected.
Next week, a large storm may effect us, until then we will have a stretch of dry weather through the weekend. The storm, if it appears, could bring rain, snow, or ice.
Next week, a large storm may effect us, until then we will have a stretch of dry weather through the weekend. The storm, if it appears, could bring rain, snow, or ice.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Snow tonight and tomorrow, light to moderate amounts expected
On satellite and radar the storm is gathering steam and it can't miss us tonight.
Lucky for New England, the snow is coming for the ski week,finally.
No new storms for us all the way through the weekend.
There are continued hints of stormy weather at the end of February and early March.
Lucky for New England, the snow is coming for the ski week,finally.
No new storms for us all the way through the weekend.
There are continued hints of stormy weather at the end of February and early March.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Storm track in doubt, could be less at the coast but more inland, north and west.
Snow and / or a mixture Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Warmer air and mixing could lessen coastal accumulations with possible moderate snow to the north and west.
Areas west of the Garden State Parkway And North of Rte. 80 should be mostly all snow. 2 to 4 inches expected.
The Highlands could see 4 to 6 inches.
It looks like mother nature may have big plans for us late in February or early March.
Warmer air and mixing could lessen coastal accumulations with possible moderate snow to the north and west.
Areas west of the Garden State Parkway And North of Rte. 80 should be mostly all snow. 2 to 4 inches expected.
The Highlands could see 4 to 6 inches.
It looks like mother nature may have big plans for us late in February or early March.
With 2/3 of the USA covered in snow, more is on the way. The winter that keeps going and going and going....
Saturday early look.
After checking on what Accuweather, The National Weather Service and NBC are saying it looks like we are in for a snow event Monday night into Tuesday. Estimates have been running from less than an inch to as much as 8 inches.
A strong, but dry, snow system is coming in from the west. The areas that can get the most snow would be Atlantic City, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island and Cape Cod. This system is a fast moving clipper system and will produce 12 hours of snow at most.
Highest amounts should be closer to the coast. Some mixing could occur near the coast at night. Tuesday morning will be all snow in all areas. The snow will end by lunchtime.
For Northeast NJ, expect 3 to 6 inches with the most nearest the ocean. Not a big snow this time around.
AS ALWAYS check the official National Weather Service Forecast for the most accurate and up to date advice.
All this hinges on the storm rapidly strengthening and picking up Atlantic moisture and that is not a sure thing.
We can be sure the weather will remain rather cold all week ahead.
There are hints of a big snow the last week of February. It will turn warmer in the spring. Ha,ha,ha,ha,ha.........
Beware the ides of March.
After checking on what Accuweather, The National Weather Service and NBC are saying it looks like we are in for a snow event Monday night into Tuesday. Estimates have been running from less than an inch to as much as 8 inches.
A strong, but dry, snow system is coming in from the west. The areas that can get the most snow would be Atlantic City, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island and Cape Cod. This system is a fast moving clipper system and will produce 12 hours of snow at most.
Highest amounts should be closer to the coast. Some mixing could occur near the coast at night. Tuesday morning will be all snow in all areas. The snow will end by lunchtime.
For Northeast NJ, expect 3 to 6 inches with the most nearest the ocean. Not a big snow this time around.
AS ALWAYS check the official National Weather Service Forecast for the most accurate and up to date advice.
All this hinges on the storm rapidly strengthening and picking up Atlantic moisture and that is not a sure thing.
We can be sure the weather will remain rather cold all week ahead.
There are hints of a big snow the last week of February. It will turn warmer in the spring. Ha,ha,ha,ha,ha.........
Beware the ides of March.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
STORM MOVES EASTWARD
THE STORM CENTER IS SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND and moving away but the snow will continue for hours with varying intensity.
The bullseye turned out to be near Philadelphia again. About 2 feet there.
The snow we got is good enough and I am glad that the storm did not turn out as scary as it appeared this morning. We seemed headed for the 2 foot mark. We will get several more inches before the snow stops late tonight.
With a little sun tomorrow it could be a beautiful day. Fresh snow and sunshine is not a bad substitute for a day at the beach. It is the best we can do. It's winter.
The model maps don't show any major storms so we can relax for a while. We hope.
Monday could bring a nuisance snow, perhaps.
It will remain cold with temps in the 30's in the afternoon.
The bullseye turned out to be near Philadelphia again. About 2 feet there.
The snow we got is good enough and I am glad that the storm did not turn out as scary as it appeared this morning. We seemed headed for the 2 foot mark. We will get several more inches before the snow stops late tonight.
With a little sun tomorrow it could be a beautiful day. Fresh snow and sunshine is not a bad substitute for a day at the beach. It is the best we can do. It's winter.
The model maps don't show any major storms so we can relax for a while. We hope.
Monday could bring a nuisance snow, perhaps.
It will remain cold with temps in the 30's in the afternoon.
It may not look so bad Wednesday morning, but wait until you see what happens.
THE INFAMOUS NEW YORK CITY SNOW WINDOW WILL OPEN WIDE ON WEDNESDAY!
THIS IS THE WINTER PREDICTED BY JOE BASTARDI LAST OCTOBER at Accuweather.com. And, he was among the very first to sound the alarm, about our current storm many days ago. Today, he warns us that yet another snow may come next week, perhaps. Henry Margusity his colleague, is at once ecstatic and offering sobering advice on exercising caution with this storm. Even snow lovers can get too much of a good thing.
We will all be calling it a blizzard even though it may not fully meet all the technical details. In a blizzard, you just can"t see where you are heading, the actual amount of snow on the ground may not be that great. Blowing and drifting snow will bring low visibility.
About one foot of snow will be common but some areas will reach 15 to 20 inches. Exactly where that occurs, will become known later Wednesday. If you hear thunder , you are probably in the heavy snow band.
Winds will be strong in gusts especially in coastal areas. Damage to power lines will occur in places.
Fortunately, we won't have very low temperatures but the wind chill will be quite uncomfortable
UPDATES:
8:30 am most snow, Clark,NJ 4 inches.
Reports of very heavy snow in PA
Virginia had wind gust to 60 mph
Numerous 40 mph gusts
9;30 am
Satellite images show an approaching upper level vortex from the west. When it reaches the coast, that is when the real snow will begin.
Moose did not even ask to go out, but I took him out at 9am anyway. Unprecedented for Moose.
We just received the first punch and the second punch is on the way. Do not be deceived by a lull.
Southeast PA 10 inches new snow on the ground. ( as if they need it.)
Forecast maps give the impression that a developing low just off NJ coast will be slow to move out, at first, thus the heavy snow as the low strengthens.
10:00 oh no! A clipper like snowstorm appears next week and brings even more snow. BUT sometime the GFS is only kidding. Maybe it won't happen.
11:00 western PA has temps in the teens and this cold air is headed this way, thus the blizzard warnings, Harrisburg PA, 14 inches new snow, so far. Ballooner territory about 4 inches now.
Trenton area has a dry spot. Some areas have sleet and freezing rain. This is temporary.
Just some speculation on my part, if the cold air over western PA marches toward us ,that would be a worst case scenario.
Warm moist air to the east, cold air intruding from the west as the low intensifies, something like the Blizzard of 1888. It was raining over Long Island, while there were near zero temps over NJ and NY in that most famous of all blizzards. It caused New York City to realize that a subway transportation system would be a life saver.
Nah! Never happen! But it will get worse, that is certain.
Hey! At 11:30 it almost stopped snowing. What a gyp!
11:45 am the heaviest band of snow is over Warren County,NJ extending west and south through PA. Not where expected. We will have to watch the movement of this heavy snow band carefully.
12:15 Barometric pressure is crashing at Cape May. This is consistent with forecasts.
12:23 thunder snow in southeast PA!
The snow bomb is going to detonate! Falling temps expected here later.
Heavy snow band along I-81 corridor in PA.
Lodi, NJ 6 inches, Roselle 7, Hawthorne 5,
Philadelphia is the bullseye, the National Weather Service calls for 18-24 inches there. But it is snowing well into NY state as well. Many Nj locations will get near 20 inches near the "waist" of NJ.
1:00 a heavy snow band from Allentown to Philadelphia is crossing the Delaware river, into NJ
2:00 moderate to heavy snow, windy. Fog.28 degrees
Heavy snow band seen on radar Ocean County. Runs from Ocean City to Trenton
18 inches in SE PA
The storm center is visible on radar just east of Atlantic City.
4:30 pm the storm center has begun to move out into the Atlantic. The snow is not over, it will remain heavy in some areas especially central and southern NJ. Other areas may see the snow fall with less intensity.
There are many hours of snow ahead.
FORECAST FROM EARLIER BELOW.
THIS IS THE WINTER PREDICTED BY JOE BASTARDI LAST OCTOBER at Accuweather.com. And, he was among the very first to sound the alarm, about our current storm many days ago. Today, he warns us that yet another snow may come next week, perhaps. Henry Margusity his colleague, is at once ecstatic and offering sobering advice on exercising caution with this storm. Even snow lovers can get too much of a good thing.
We will all be calling it a blizzard even though it may not fully meet all the technical details. In a blizzard, you just can"t see where you are heading, the actual amount of snow on the ground may not be that great. Blowing and drifting snow will bring low visibility.
About one foot of snow will be common but some areas will reach 15 to 20 inches. Exactly where that occurs, will become known later Wednesday. If you hear thunder , you are probably in the heavy snow band.
Winds will be strong in gusts especially in coastal areas. Damage to power lines will occur in places.
Fortunately, we won't have very low temperatures but the wind chill will be quite uncomfortable
UPDATES:
8:30 am most snow, Clark,NJ 4 inches.
Reports of very heavy snow in PA
Virginia had wind gust to 60 mph
Numerous 40 mph gusts
9;30 am
Satellite images show an approaching upper level vortex from the west. When it reaches the coast, that is when the real snow will begin.
Moose did not even ask to go out, but I took him out at 9am anyway. Unprecedented for Moose.
We just received the first punch and the second punch is on the way. Do not be deceived by a lull.
Southeast PA 10 inches new snow on the ground. ( as if they need it.)
Forecast maps give the impression that a developing low just off NJ coast will be slow to move out, at first, thus the heavy snow as the low strengthens.
10:00 oh no! A clipper like snowstorm appears next week and brings even more snow. BUT sometime the GFS is only kidding. Maybe it won't happen.
11:00 western PA has temps in the teens and this cold air is headed this way, thus the blizzard warnings, Harrisburg PA, 14 inches new snow, so far. Ballooner territory about 4 inches now.
Trenton area has a dry spot. Some areas have sleet and freezing rain. This is temporary.
Just some speculation on my part, if the cold air over western PA marches toward us ,that would be a worst case scenario.
Warm moist air to the east, cold air intruding from the west as the low intensifies, something like the Blizzard of 1888. It was raining over Long Island, while there were near zero temps over NJ and NY in that most famous of all blizzards. It caused New York City to realize that a subway transportation system would be a life saver.
Nah! Never happen! But it will get worse, that is certain.
Hey! At 11:30 it almost stopped snowing. What a gyp!
11:45 am the heaviest band of snow is over Warren County,NJ extending west and south through PA. Not where expected. We will have to watch the movement of this heavy snow band carefully.
12:15 Barometric pressure is crashing at Cape May. This is consistent with forecasts.
12:23 thunder snow in southeast PA!
The snow bomb is going to detonate! Falling temps expected here later.
Heavy snow band along I-81 corridor in PA.
Lodi, NJ 6 inches, Roselle 7, Hawthorne 5,
Philadelphia is the bullseye, the National Weather Service calls for 18-24 inches there. But it is snowing well into NY state as well. Many Nj locations will get near 20 inches near the "waist" of NJ.
1:00 a heavy snow band from Allentown to Philadelphia is crossing the Delaware river, into NJ
2:00 moderate to heavy snow, windy. Fog.28 degrees
Heavy snow band seen on radar Ocean County. Runs from Ocean City to Trenton
18 inches in SE PA
The storm center is visible on radar just east of Atlantic City.
4:30 pm the storm center has begun to move out into the Atlantic. The snow is not over, it will remain heavy in some areas especially central and southern NJ. Other areas may see the snow fall with less intensity.
There are many hours of snow ahead.
FORECAST FROM EARLIER BELOW.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
It's beginning to look a lot like a blizzard.
MOST PLACES IN NEW JERSEY WILL GET ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW give or take 2 inches. But some areas will approach the 20 inch mark.
Snow developing Tuesday night late. Probably 1 to 3 inches by dawn. There may be a pause in the snow for a few hours.
Snow continuing in the morning at a light pace at first, then all hell will break loose sometime around lunch hour or a bit later.
There will be heavier snow at times , increasing wind, possible thunder and lightning in some places.
If you hear thunder you know that you are in a heavy snow band. If snow falls heavily and continuously then you will be getting the highest snow amounts in your area. People only 10 or 20 miles away will get much less snow.
Falling snow,blowing and drifting snow will cause visibility to drop to between 1/2 and 2/10ths. mile. Near white conditions may occur in strong wind gusts. Winds will average about 15 miles per hour but there may be gusts to 40 miles per hour or higher, especially in coastal areas,in the afternoon and evening...near blizzard conditions will develop at times.
A suspected dry slot could cut off the heavy snow in some areas and lessen accumulations.
Some coastal and southern locations should see some mixing in of sleet or rain for a while, then, back to snow. These areas will still get at least 6 inches of snow anyway.
Conditions will improve around 7 to 9 pm.
The snow will end by about midnight.
Although a dry slot may lessen accumulations, most places will see about a foot of snow with a few small areas getting as much as 20 inches south of Rte. 78. Well north, accumulations could be as little a 6 inches. North of Rte. 78 some areas will exceed 12 inches also.
A mesoscale band of heavy snow will set up running from New York City southeast to the area of Philadelphia. The exact location of this expected band will produce the most accumulations. It will form where there is the most forcing present at the frontogenic zone. This cannot be determined in advance, only by watching live radar images.
Travel from afternoon to nightfall will be very difficult and hazardous.
9 pm update - pressures falling rapidly near Cape Hatteras, low is now taking shape
heavy snow breaking out in PA.
Midnight update
Snow breaking out in most of NJ, the NAM model now shows North Jersey really getting hammered tomorrow.
Mount Holly- Heavy snow, freezing fog.
Wildwood - Freezing rain
Caldwell- light snow, overcast
Trenton- light snow
Lakehurst- Snow
Snow developing Tuesday night late. Probably 1 to 3 inches by dawn. There may be a pause in the snow for a few hours.
Snow continuing in the morning at a light pace at first, then all hell will break loose sometime around lunch hour or a bit later.
There will be heavier snow at times , increasing wind, possible thunder and lightning in some places.
If you hear thunder you know that you are in a heavy snow band. If snow falls heavily and continuously then you will be getting the highest snow amounts in your area. People only 10 or 20 miles away will get much less snow.
Falling snow,blowing and drifting snow will cause visibility to drop to between 1/2 and 2/10ths. mile. Near white conditions may occur in strong wind gusts. Winds will average about 15 miles per hour but there may be gusts to 40 miles per hour or higher, especially in coastal areas,in the afternoon and evening...near blizzard conditions will develop at times.
A suspected dry slot could cut off the heavy snow in some areas and lessen accumulations.
Some coastal and southern locations should see some mixing in of sleet or rain for a while, then, back to snow. These areas will still get at least 6 inches of snow anyway.
Conditions will improve around 7 to 9 pm.
The snow will end by about midnight.
Although a dry slot may lessen accumulations, most places will see about a foot of snow with a few small areas getting as much as 20 inches south of Rte. 78. Well north, accumulations could be as little a 6 inches. North of Rte. 78 some areas will exceed 12 inches also.
A mesoscale band of heavy snow will set up running from New York City southeast to the area of Philadelphia. The exact location of this expected band will produce the most accumulations. It will form where there is the most forcing present at the frontogenic zone. This cannot be determined in advance, only by watching live radar images.
Travel from afternoon to nightfall will be very difficult and hazardous.
9 pm update - pressures falling rapidly near Cape Hatteras, low is now taking shape
heavy snow breaking out in PA.
Midnight update
Snow breaking out in most of NJ, the NAM model now shows North Jersey really getting hammered tomorrow.
Mount Holly- Heavy snow, freezing fog.
Wildwood - Freezing rain
Caldwell- light snow, overcast
Trenton- light snow
Lakehurst- Snow
Monday, February 8, 2010
NASA GOES photo of Snowmageddon
Keep this quiet.
Privately, forecasters expect 1 to 2 feet of snow Wednesday Feb. 10th. But, with still some uncertainty present, they are holding off until later. After further data comes in today and this evening, they will issue watches and warnings and snow accumulation numbers. Stay tuned, go to the supermarket TODAY.
EVENING UPDATE 7:30 pm
Some talk at Accuweather and NWS that the max snow zone may shift south toward Philly. But NYC METRO still good for 6 to 12 inches with blowing and drifting snow and blizzard like conditions. The situation is so dynamic that locating the bulls eye for max snow is very tough.
My guess is 12 to 18 inches for Ballooner territory and I will leave it there until tomorrow. Such a rapidly developing system is inherently unpredictable until the last minute.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
The Beauty of February, a big shot of snow followed by sunshine.
BIG SNOW FOR THE BIG APPLE?
Snowmageddon continues and continues and continues........
The infamous New York City snow window is about to open up and let in the snow. We only have to figure out, how much?
So you have got to ask yourself: Do I feel lucky? This time lucky will mean only about 6 inches. We could see more than that. Would you believe 2 or 3 times that? The 00Z GFS looks that scary.
Assuming the sun comes out Thursday, do not forget your sunscreen. Have you noticed the extra solar power out there, despite the cold? The days are noticeably brighter already.
..............................................................................................The Outlook
Snow begins late Tuesday night. From the forecast maps we should see about 9 hours of heavier snow before the snow ends Wednesday night. Around lunchtime Wednesday, the heavier snow will begin and continue past sundown. A good day to pack up and go home early, if you go out, at all.
Timing is everything and very difficult to predict, as will be the final snow totals. All is subject to change. CHECK THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST for the latest on this important storm.
Remember: The weather will always surprise you!
.............................................................................
Hats off to Accuweather.com when Joe B. and Henry M. were calling for a winter to remember. They were so right. The first warning came from them last July!
Brett Anderson, also on AccuWeather.com, predicts 10 to 18 inches for us. Yikes! What does he think this is, Canada?
And we are not done yet! Beware the ides of March!
Snowmageddon continues and continues and continues........
The infamous New York City snow window is about to open up and let in the snow. We only have to figure out, how much?
So you have got to ask yourself: Do I feel lucky? This time lucky will mean only about 6 inches. We could see more than that. Would you believe 2 or 3 times that? The 00Z GFS looks that scary.
Assuming the sun comes out Thursday, do not forget your sunscreen. Have you noticed the extra solar power out there, despite the cold? The days are noticeably brighter already.
..............................................................................................The Outlook
Snow begins late Tuesday night. From the forecast maps we should see about 9 hours of heavier snow before the snow ends Wednesday night. Around lunchtime Wednesday, the heavier snow will begin and continue past sundown. A good day to pack up and go home early, if you go out, at all.
Timing is everything and very difficult to predict, as will be the final snow totals. All is subject to change. CHECK THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST for the latest on this important storm.
Remember: The weather will always surprise you!
.............................................................................
Hats off to Accuweather.com when Joe B. and Henry M. were calling for a winter to remember. They were so right. The first warning came from them last July!
Brett Anderson, also on AccuWeather.com, predicts 10 to 18 inches for us. Yikes! What does he think this is, Canada?
And we are not done yet! Beware the ides of March!
New storm moves in late Tuesday into Wednesday
Early estimates are 6 to 12 inches for New Jersey.
Timing so far, is that the snow begins late Tuesday night, snow gets heavier by Wed. afternoon, the snow tapers off Wed. night. That is my best guess, subject to change.
The NWS so far, puts NY Metro pretty much at the center of the action Tue./Wed. The exact bulls eye is not known yet. It is hard to imagine that northeast NJ will get away with no snow this time. We are in the middle of a large shield of precipitation.
The Baltimore,Philadelphia region will get more snow! Some spots with 2-3 feet already! Snowmageddon continues.
LONG TREND..... a pause to rest?
The GFS shows that after the storm mid-week we may have a long spell of dry but cold weather, possibly up to Washington's Birthday, Feb. 22.. The maps show the storms staying well south, then head to the open Atlantic, too far out to bother us.
This is only one possible scenario, some forecasters expect storminess to continue. Let's see what happens.
The information above is not official, only for informed opinions about the developing weather events.
Check the official National Weather Service forecasts for the most reliable and up to date information.
Do not dismiss the threat of the next storm, we may be in for it, for real.
Timing so far, is that the snow begins late Tuesday night, snow gets heavier by Wed. afternoon, the snow tapers off Wed. night. That is my best guess, subject to change.
The NWS so far, puts NY Metro pretty much at the center of the action Tue./Wed. The exact bulls eye is not known yet. It is hard to imagine that northeast NJ will get away with no snow this time. We are in the middle of a large shield of precipitation.
The Baltimore,Philadelphia region will get more snow! Some spots with 2-3 feet already! Snowmageddon continues.
LONG TREND..... a pause to rest?
The GFS shows that after the storm mid-week we may have a long spell of dry but cold weather, possibly up to Washington's Birthday, Feb. 22.. The maps show the storms staying well south, then head to the open Atlantic, too far out to bother us.
This is only one possible scenario, some forecasters expect storminess to continue. Let's see what happens.
The information above is not official, only for informed opinions about the developing weather events.
Check the official National Weather Service forecasts for the most reliable and up to date information.
Do not dismiss the threat of the next storm, we may be in for it, for real.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Cold ahead and another snowstorm that may hit NORTH New Jersey, this time.
The image shows the winds of the stratosphere at the North Pole, as provided by the U. of Wyoming. This I believe, is called a cross polar wind. As Elliot Abrams pointed out in his AccuWeather.com blog, it signals cold air ahead. The winds are relatively weak and the polar vortex is well off the Pole.
NEXT WEEK, watching the next storm.
Next week, another snowstorm appears on the GFS forecast. This one seems to be aimed right at the New York Metro area. Too early to be sure, but, it bears watching late Tuesday into Wednesday. New Jersey hit the bullseye on two runs of the model.
A 6 to 12 inch snowfall could occur; according to figures from the NWS forecast discussion. AS usual the models do not agree except for the fact that a storm will occur. AccuWeather.com suggests up to a foot of snow is possible, also. But let's not bet on it.
VALENTINES DAY WEEKEND FORECAST (my guess)
FAIR, breezy, cold. ( But not in New England.)
WINTER OLYMPICS WEEKEND FORECAST
Ditto.
Weekend following, Feb. 20,21( a really big guess)
The early outlook is mostly fair and cold. If mother nature cuts us a break.
The GFS long range model shows a shift of the storm track to the south, well away from our region. The Pacific moisture will run through the Gulf area and Florida and then well out east into the Atlantic Ocean. Whether this pattern will prove out, is anyones' guess.
SATURDAY SNOW CHASE
I took a ride down the Garden State Parkway this morning and here is what I saw.
Mile 157 dry, no snow
Mile 145 The Oranges, a light dusting visible from earlier
Mile 135 About 1 inch
Mile 120 Cheesequake Service Area snowing about 3-4 inches on the ground
Mile 115 Garden State Arts Center. Heavy snow,blowing snow,road covered with snow/slush
Mile 102 Asbury Pk.,Neptune. Heavy snow visibility 2/10ths. mile 8 - 10 inches accumulation. Hazardous driving. Many snow plows at work but the storm was working faster than they could. Temperature 24 degrees. Strong, gusty winds,
That was as far as I got. I waited for the snow to ease up, and headed north again. The snow stopped and the roads were only wet.
If you like snow, we were robbed. If you hate snow we dodged the bullet, and it came really close.
Over at Weatherunderground .com, Jeff Masters explains that 2 blizzards in the Mid-Atlantic region in the same winter would occur once every 625 years! This is an unusual winter.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Inches of snow or only flurries of snow? 25 miles will make the difference.
I give up. This can't be forecast for our location, other than to say that we will not see a heavy snow fall. A few inches is about it so far. If that.
EVENING UPDATE
Now the RAdar looks good and snow is on the way at last.
We have falling temps., rising dewpoints, and a falling barometer. All indications of snow.
EVENING UPDATE
Now the RAdar looks good and snow is on the way at last.
We have falling temps., rising dewpoints, and a falling barometer. All indications of snow.
Moose predicts snow this morning!
Moose slept an extra 55 minutes today. If you divide that by the square root of his weight that is the expected snow total. Moose weighs 81 pounds.
Go figure.
Atlantic City NWS forecast is 18 to 24 inches.
What a close call for us!
I should mention that some model runs show us getting no snow at all. A hift of only 20 miles will tell whether we see snow or almost nothing at all.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
December Blizzard Redux
I just read the comments from the National Weather Service at Mount Holly and they see the next storm being very similar to the Dec. 20th blizzard
Thats good enough for me, so about 6 inches looks good for Northeast NJ..
Snow will begin in the Metro tomorrow night and the height of the storm will probably be early Saturday.
Blizzard conditions may occur from Ocean County and South
NWS forecaster notes that such a storm as Friday/Saturday tends to be underdone by the computer models. There is abundant moisture that tends to move more northward than forecast.
More snow likely next week too!
Thats good enough for me, so about 6 inches looks good for Northeast NJ..
Snow will begin in the Metro tomorrow night and the height of the storm will probably be early Saturday.
Blizzard conditions may occur from Ocean County and South
NWS forecaster notes that such a storm as Friday/Saturday tends to be underdone by the computer models. There is abundant moisture that tends to move more northward than forecast.
More snow likely next week too!
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
New York City snow window arrives and so does a snowstorm.
Here we go again and after this one, more storms are on the way.
WEDNESDAY EVE. update.
This is a major snow and will leave over a foot in some places.Snow will occur from Ohio to the Atlantic shore.
Winds could become a problem too, according to the National Weather Service.
The timing as of Wed. night is the snow begins between 6pm and midnight Friday.
Ending Sat. afternoon or evening. The latest NAM model shows south Jersey getting blasted and the snow reaches more northward than seen in previous model runs.
Heavy accumulations ( 12 inches +) in south NJ is likely, too early to tell about northern NJ. We should be good for a couple of inches, maybe more.
Another storm, though weaker, rolls in Tues,/Wed.
WEDNESDAY EVE. update.
This is a major snow and will leave over a foot in some places.Snow will occur from Ohio to the Atlantic shore.
Winds could become a problem too, according to the National Weather Service.
The timing as of Wed. night is the snow begins between 6pm and midnight Friday.
Ending Sat. afternoon or evening. The latest NAM model shows south Jersey getting blasted and the snow reaches more northward than seen in previous model runs.
Heavy accumulations ( 12 inches +) in south NJ is likely, too early to tell about northern NJ. We should be good for a couple of inches, maybe more.
Another storm, though weaker, rolls in Tues,/Wed.
A MAJOR snowstorm is forming but we may escape the worst of it. Or, maybe not.
Friday night, the snow will move in to the southern half of NJ, probably after midnight for our Metro area.
South of New Brunswick, 6 to 12 inches is possible. Furthest south 12 to 18 inches is likely. Some sleet or rain could mix in, near the shore.
Here in Northern NJ we are probably in the 2 to 4 inch zone. The snow may not reach as far north as Poughkeepsie, NY.
This is the best guess for now, but the totals could move up or down greatly, if the storm tracks differently, than now appears.
I would not trust accumulation forecasts until the Thursday night or Friday morning forecasts.
This storm has the potential to produce widespread travel problems, starting Friday night. A secondary low will form on the coast near Delmarva and rapidly intensify. The forecasts will be subject to large changes up to almost the last minute.
This is going to be a classic but will it be a hit or a miss for us? Looks like an old fashioned , keep watching the barometer type situation.
What ever you do, don't try to drive to Atlantic City this Saturday! Also, forget about eastern Long Island.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Light snow coming our way tonight. UPDATED Tues. eve.
Expect about 1 inch on the ground tomorrow and the groundhogs won't be seeing their shadows.
Snow is looking a little more likely late Friday. So far, the snow gets as far north as Long Branch. Plenty of things can change one way or the other between now and Friday. I suspect the snow will work its' way northward toward us, Friday. That is pure guesswork on my part.
Just a reminder from what I said below, New York Metro is about to enter its' infamous snow window. We better watch out.
The weather will always surprise you.
EVENING UPDATE 7:30 pm.
It still looks like about an inch of snow overnight, ending by lunchtime Wednesday.
The next storm may begin Friday evening and the snow may become heavy overnight into Saturday, especially south of New Brunswick, NJ.
Lighter snow is likely in Northern NJ. All areas could receive significant snow.
This is a classic snow set up with one low heading north inland, then a secondary forming on the coast and rapidly intensifying. Very tough to forecast, things happen fast.
Still too early for a good estimate on this storm.
Monday, February 1, 2010
How far have we come since 1960? A weather forecasting perspective.
"Just when you see a weather pattern and you are sure you know what the weather will do next ..... the pattern suddenly changes."
-Tex Antoine, TV weather caster in New York, in the 1950's & 1960's.
On the TV news today, a report on the first sit in protest, of the Civil Rights Movement, was presented. Four African American college students, decided to sit down at a Woolworth's lunch counter, marked "for whites only". The locals and the whole nation, were surprised to see, the unexpected. Their simple act, helped set in motion, the changes that took place. It was February 1st., 1960.
It is hard to believe, that such discrimination existed, not so long ago. I remember discussing this with my students, in my classroom. I told them how things were very different back then. I told them that it was weird and really bad, the way the laws enforced, such practices. The nation would be almost unrecognizable, if they could somehow experience it, as it was then.
For instance on television, African Americans were seldom seen. Never on a commercial. Never in a television series or drama. Only on certain shows, where entertainment was presented, such as music and variety shows. I remember Nat King Cole relating how, when he arrived at a nightclub, where he was a headline attraction, he was reminded that colored people must use the rear entrance and not the front. His celebrity and talent did not matter, only the color of his skin.
So, things have changed quite a bit since then. Thank goodness. May change continue!
The people in Washington, need to reflect on what change and progress means. As a nation, we seem to be stuck in a ditch. Where is the leadership and sense of the common good, today? They all seem to worry only about how much money they can get and how to win the next election. Once they win that election, they are comfortable knowing that they don't have to actually do anything for the voters.
So they listen to the rich and the powerful, not the people. If it were up to the current crop of legislators in Washington, the Civil Rights Act would not ever have happened. Why? No big shot, well monied, lobbyists pushing for it. And also because there is no courage, in evidence, from our lawmakers, either.
And the people in America, have become a docile flock of sheep, convinced that they are powerless, to change anything. So they go buy a big TV, as soon as they can. While they are watching that TV, those people in Washington and on Wall Street, will be driving us all over a cliff. And it will happen soon and suddenly. Rich, poor ,young ,old, Democrat, Republican, we will all go down together. But next time , we won't be able to pull ourselves out of the economic canyon, again.
I have said too much, already.
Now, what about the weather?
Tex Antoine did a remarkable job, presenting the weather each night, for the 6 o'clock and 11 o'clock news. From 1949 through the 1960's, he appeared on New York City television, mostly on WNBC TV.
He used a drawing board, paper and a marker, to draw the weather map for us. He also had Uncle Weathbee to dress up, with magnetically applied articles of clothing, to represent the expected weather conditions. Tex, dressed in an artist's smock, used his dry sense of humor, to liven up his 5 minute weather show. He explained each map as he drew it himself, on live television. Occasionally, the late night show presented Tex, who seemed to sound as if he apparently had enjoyed a Martini, before he went on the air. No matter, he was a beloved figure, in the earlier days of television weather.
No computer graphics,no satellite imagery,no laptop computer,no email, no internet and computer assisted weather forecasting was in its' infancy. If you wanted any data, you had to find the right piece of paper, from the teletype. No cell phone either, yikes!
You really needed a good meteorologist who had education, experience, intuition and could fly by the seat of his pants. Meteorology was truly a science and an art, and Tex exemplified that, to his viewers.
It was caveman weather forecasting. But it worked pretty well and no one, really expected the weatherman to be right, anyway. 5 day forecasts? 10 days?, forget about it.
The weather forecasts, were much more vaguely worded, and seldom went past 2 or 3 days out. For instance, it might say "some snow Saturday". If 1 inch came down, that was some snow. If 9 inches came down, that was some snow!
Today, accuracy in weather forecasting, is better than ever. But, once in a while, mother nature throws us a curveball and the forecasts are wrong. The atmosphere has random motion, built into it. Random events are inherently, unpredictable. This is science. I don't care how great a computer model there may be, at some point, the weather remains unpredictable.
I kind of like it that way. How awful it would be, to always know exactly what the weather will do, many days in advance. What fun is that?
The weather will always surprise you!
National Weather Service says 50% chance of snow
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could bring in some flurries or light snow. The NWS expects a dusting to 1 inch in our area, but is not in the forecast wording, just yet.
After that, just seasonably cold and dry. A small chance of snow on the weekend, more likely, another miss for us. But it is such a close call, that it has to be watched closely. The CMC model shows us getting hit with a good snowstorm, but it is the only one doing that, right now.
Maybe we should drive south to Virginia, this weekend. There are people who are snow chasers. They drive to where the snow is expected to be heaviest, and then settle in to enjoy the storm. One such individual is a meteorology professor at Rutgers University.
Tomorrow is GROUNDHOG DAY and that is 100% certain. If Phil says spring is imminent, don't you believe it. I don't see any forecasters looking for winter to suddenly end, so soon.
Happy Birthday, Mrs. Colombo, wherever you are.
And remember, the weather will always surprise you!
February to be cold and near normal snowfall.
Accuweather.com's Brett anderson just issued his February forecast and for us it will be a cold and snowy month. For New Jersey, the cold is certain but the snow is not.
In case you don't already know, snow forecasting is the most difficult of all. This is because there are so many factors that must come together to produce snow, in the NY metro area. And if the forecasters are wrong, everyone knows it. Too many variables, some of which change in a somewhat random fashion, make forecasting difficult.
Just to our south though, this may be an unusually snowy month ahead. The main storm track will bring the most precipitation roughly through Virginia.
Forecaster Joe Bastardi expects a wild winter party later this month. Elliot Abrams is confident on cold weather to persist, but makes no guarantees about snow. Henry Margusity sees a snowy lining in almost any cloud, but he alone saw the weekend storm moving as far north as NJ. Frank Strait is keeping the Southerners happy with snow and ice.
I say, bring it on.
Please light a snow candle to help bring a coastal storm up to our area. Thanks.
Come Wednesday night, I will use my intuition to help guess what this weekend storm will do. Right now, the weekend storm does not look all that promising for a deep snowfall here in Northern NJ. The storms just keep marching along well to our south.
We are fast approaching the New York area's infamous, " snow window ", when some of our best or worst, snowstorms occur. I believe it runs from about Feb. 4 to the 14th, approximately. There are other storms ahead on the GFS so, maybe one of those will pan out. The last run showed a nice storm for us around the 13th. But then, the GFS has always had many snowstorms that never show up.
FISH FORECASTING, if we could only talk to the animals.
Just before a thunderstorm, you may see fish wildly playing at the surface of the water. I experienced this last summer and the sky was fair with no sign of a thunderstorm. The fish are better weather watchers than we are.
Moose does not make his forecast until Saturday morning.
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