2014 Winter Olympics Host City Fears Snow Shortage

2014 Winter Olympics Host City Fears Snow Shortage

Coldest Easter on Record in United Kingdom

Coldest Easter on Record in United Kingdom

Moscow Records Highest March Snow Depth in 20 Years

Moscow Records Highest March Snow Depth in 20 Years

Anniversary of Niagara Falls Running Dry

Anniversary of Niagara Falls Running Dry

Huge North Atlantic storm that began here early this week.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/28/incredible-storm-spans-atlantic-ocean-coast-to-coast/

The Last Shot of Cold Weather... Snow and Severe Weather - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog

The Last Shot of Cold Weather... Snow and Severe Weather - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog

click  ^ ^ ^

March: Came in Like a Polar Bear; Goes Out Bearable - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog Weather Blog

March: Came in Like a Polar Bear; Goes Out Bearable - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog Weather Blog

click for Elliot A's blog & video. ^ ^ ^ 

Midwest, Northeast to Endure Cold Waves Well into April

Midwest, Northeast to Endure Cold Waves Well into April

Weather for March will come this April!  see ^ ^ ^ 

Not quite as chilly nor stormy through next weekend.

The blocking to our north is not going away really, but some milder Pacific air will work in to our area.  This being spring, a shower or two may pop up any afternoon, with even a flurry possible in the hills.

Steve D. at NYNJPA Weather states that stratospheric warming is expected to help maintain cooler than normal temps.  So, beach weather is on hold until further notice.

http://www.nynjpaweather.com/public-forecasts/lfd/

click for 7 day forecast.  ^ ^ ^ 

Snow totals, not so much.

Location storm total time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

Delaware

... Kent County...
   Viola 2.8 630 PM 3/25 deos
   Dover 2.3 630 PM 3/25 deos
   Harrington 2.1 630 PM 3/25 deos
   Camden 1.5 908 am 3/25 public

... New Castle County...
   Hockessin 3.3 929 am 3/25 public
   Greenville 3.1 615 PM 3/25 deos
   Pike Creek 3.0 856 am 3/25 public
   New Castle 2.9 409 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Odessa 2.8 1135 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Newark 2.2 741 am 3/25 less on pavement
   Blackbird 2.2 615 PM 3/25 deos
   White Clay creek 1.9 615 PM 3/25 deos
   Talleyville 1.5 615 PM 3/25 deos
   Glasgow 1.3 615 PM 3/25 deos
   Wilmington Airport 1.1 200 PM 3/25 ASOS
   Prices Corner 1.1 615 PM 3/25 deos
   Wilmington 1.1 200 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Claymont 1.1 615 PM 3/25 deos

... Sussex County...
   Bridgeville 1.5 630 PM 3/25 deos
   Ellendale 1.3 630 PM 3/25 deos
   Laurel 0.4 630 PM 3/25 deos

Maryland

... Cecil County...
   Colora 3.7 1059 am 3/25 cocorahs

... Kent County...
   Millington 3.0 1035 am 3/25 public
   Rock Hall 2.0 850 am 3/25 public

... Queen Anne's County...
   Queenstown 3.0 850 am 3/25 public

... Talbot County...
   Easton 2.0 820 am 3/25 public

New Jersey

... Atlantic County...
   Galloway TWP 3.0 1120 am 3/25 public
   Estell Manor 2.1 1110 am 3/25 co-op observer
   Hammonton 1.5 934 am 3/25 public
   Richland 1.5 948 am 3/25 public
   Pleasantville 1.4 212 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Atlantic City airpor 1.4 211 PM 3/25 ASOS

... Burlington County...
   Mount Holly WFO 2.1 153 PM 3/25 snow melted as it fell
   Delran TWP 1.5 1214 PM 3/25 public
   Florence 1.4 1009 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Mount Laurel 1.2 1037 am 3/25 NWS employee
   Tabernacle 1.1 307 PM 3/25 trained spotter

... Camden County...
   Audubon 1.0 847 am 3/25 public
   Cherry Hill 1.0 929 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Pennsauken 1.0 847 am 3/25 public

... Cape May County...
   upper TWP 1.0 323 PM 3/25 public
   Rio Grande 0.2 355 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Whitesboro 0.2 356 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Green Creek 0.2 357 PM 3/25 trained spotter

... Cumberland County...
   Newport 3.0 1245 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Greenwich 0.8 1238 PM 3/25 cocorahs

... Gloucester County...
   Malaga 3.0 345 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   National Park 0.9 157 PM 3/25 trained spotter

... Mercer County...
   1 ESE Ewing 0.8 1201 PM 3/25 cocorahs

... Monmouth County...
   Cream Ridge 2.1 1148 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Hamilton 1.5 1034 am 3/25 public

... Warren County...
   Bridgeville 1.0 728 am 3/25 public
   Stewartsville 0.8 415 PM 3/25 trained spotter

Pennsylvania

... Berks County...
   Huffs Church 3.0 610 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Fleetwood 0.8 916 am 3/25 public

... Bucks County...
   Quakertown 1.4 926 am 3/25 public
   Feasterville 0.8 855 am 3/25 public
   Bristol TWP 0.5 859 am 3/25 public

... Carbon County...
   Summit Hill 2.5 439 PM 3/25 as of noon

... Chester County...
   West Nantmeal TWP 4.5 411 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Glenmoore 4.5 1118 am 3/25 public
   East Nantmeal 4.5 1120 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Chester Springs 4.0 436 PM 3/25 public
   New London 4.0 202 PM 3/25 public
   Pughtown 3.4 1136 am 3/25 public
   Kennett Square 3.3 124 PM 3/25 public
   Phoenixville 3.1 928 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Chesterbrook 3.1 931 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Exton 3.0 1032 am 3/25 public
   Longwood 3.0 1036 am 3/25 public
   Honey Brook 3.0 825 am 3/25 co-op observer
   Malvern 2.5 858 am 3/25 public
   Warwick 2.4 926 am 3/25 deos
   East Nantmeal TWP 2.3 826 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Nottingham 2.0 925 am 3/25 deos
   Avondale 2.0 1040 am 3/25 public
   Atglen 1.7 927 am 3/25 deos
   Paoli 1.5 846 am 3/25 public
   Marshallton 1.3 927 am 3/25 deos
   West Chester 1.1 925 am 3/25 deos
   Devault 1.0 924 am 3/25 deos

... Delaware County...
   Wayne 3.2 1124 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Garnet Valley 3.0 231 PM 3/25 public
   Brookhaven 2.8 1047 am 3/25 public
   Glen Mills 2.3 900 am 3/25 public

... Lehigh County...
   Schnecksville 1.6 1106 am 3/25 trained spotter
   1 S Allentown 1.0 940 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Allentown Airport 0.8 203 PM 3/25 ASOS
   Allentown 0.8 203 PM 3/25 trained spotter

... Monroe County...
   Tobyhanna 2.0 306 PM 3/25 trained spotter

... Montgomery County...
   Royersford 3.8 1019 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Gilbertsville 3.2 1118 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Graterford 3.2 1212 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Limerick 2.8 545 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Ardmore 2.8 1046 am 3/25 trained spotter
   1 NNW Souderton 2.3 948 am 3/25 cocorahs
   Eagleville 2.2 1047 am 3/25 trained spotter
   Glasgow 2.2 106 PM 3/25 public
   Willow Grove 2.0 118 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Wynnewood 1.8 1235 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Lafayette 1.5 1037 am 3/25 public
   1 N Schwenksville 1.3 900 am 3/25 cocorahs
   Spring Mount 1.3 931 am 3/25 public

... Northampton County...
   Easton 2.0 832 am 3/25 public

... Philadelphia County...
   Somerton 1.2 306 PM 3/25 trained spotter
   Philadelphia Intl Ai 0.9 200 PM 3/25 ASOS

Fairly strong storm has formed in the coastal waters and is crawling north slowly.

North Jersey is right on the cusp of a major snow. It is time to look out the window , rather than rely on a forecast.

The snow is struggling to travel north and it may not ever get to you IF you are far enough north . It is snowing about as far as Staten Island, from reports at mid day.

Monday weather forecast, March 25.2013

Probably a modest snow ahead.

From NWS, Upton , NY:

The farther north solutions would result in a significant snow event 
for most of the region Monday into Monday evening...while the southern 
solution would result in a few inches of snow...highest amounts for 
the coast. Based on the model predictability issues mentioned above 
and a bit of support for the NAM/sref from the gefs members...can 
not rule out the sref/NAM solutions. But overall confidence in 
seeing several inches of snow is too low (<50 advisories="" at="" issue="" this="" time.="" to="">

Snow's Eventual Target: DC, Philadelphia, NYC

Snow's Eventual Target: DC, Philadelphia, NYC

Some snow, but not too much.  click ^ ^ ^ 

Will the next storm be a hit or a miss on Sunday and Monday?

Nobody seems to know.  Snow or rain, daytime or night time all must be factored in and there is still much uncertainty.  The models are trending to a more snow set up but very tenuously.

From Mt. Holly, NWS discussion:

" We basically are forecasting advisory level snowfall northwest of 
the I-95 corridor (where p-type is forecast to stay snow through the 
event) and and inch or less from the I-95 corridor south (where 
p-type may start as and end as snow). This preserves continuity and 
has a basis in the models we think are closest to the correct 
solution. The event starts on Sunday night and ends on Monday night. 
Winds on land will start to pick up on Monday as the secondary low 
strengthens off the coast, but we aren't expecting land advisory 
winds. Regarding temperatures, we have gone with a 
guidance/continuity blend on Sunday, Sunday night and Monday night, 
but have gone colder on Monday as we will be under the brunt of the 
complex system by then. "

************************************************************************* 

If nature conspires to produce all snow, some areas could see a foot. 

Cold Mid-Atlantic Weekend, Monday Morning Rush Hour Mess? - AccuWeather.com

Cold Mid-Atlantic Weekend, Monday Morning Rush Hour Mess? - AccuWeather.com

All the weather models seem to agree that the next storm will arrive early next week.

The details differ since it is still about a week away.  My own sense is that it will focus on VA and MD and / or New England.  New Jersey will still feel some effects.

Snow totals report New Jeresy, New York, Connecticut

storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

Connecticut

... Fairfield County...
   Old Greenwich 2.0 843 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   New Canaan 2.0 830 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   Norwalk 1.5 837 PM 3/18 public
   Darien 1.5 812 PM 3/18 public
   Weston 1.5 815 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   North Stamford 1.3 821 PM 3/18 public
   Trumbull 1.0 853 PM 3/18 public
   Bridgeport T 800 PM 3/18 coop observer

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
   Glen Rock 3.2 815 PM 3/18 public
   Ridgewood 3.0 800 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   Fair Lawn 2.4 855 PM 3/18 public

... Essex County...
   Nutley 1.0 819 PM 3/18 broadcast media
   Newark Airport 0.8 800 PM 3/18 FAA contract observer

... Hudson County...
   Harrison 1.2 800 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter

... Passaic County...
   Wayne 3.5 900 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   West Milford 2.8 734 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter - 1100 ft
   Clifton 2.5 849 PM 3/18 public

... Union County...
   Elizabeth 1.0 750 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter

New York

... Bronx County...
   Bedford Park 1.5 743 PM 3/18 public

... Nassau County...
   Wantagh 2.1 840 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   Levittown 1.5 850 PM 3/18 public
   Bellerose 1.5 838 PM 3/18 public

... New York (Manhattan) County...
   Central Park 1.8 800 PM 3/18 Central Park Zoo
   Greenwich Village 1.0 854 PM 3/18 public

... Orange County...
   Chester 2.5 800 PM 3/18 public
   Greenville 1.5 700 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter

... Putnam County...
   Kent Cliffs 1.5 754 PM 3/18 public

... Queens County...
   Queens Village 2.0 846 PM 3/18 public
   Astoria 1.5 750 PM 3/18 public
   NYC/La Guardia 1.0 800 PM 3/18 FAA contract observer
   Middle Village 1.0 755 PM 3/18 public
   Bayside 1.0 837 PM 3/18 public
   NYC/JFK Airport 0.3 800 PM 3/18 FAA contract observer

... Richmond County...
   Staten Island 0.5 828 PM 3/18 public

... Rockland County...
   Nanuet 2.5 805 PM 3/18 public
   Suffern 2.0 751 PM 3/18 public
   Nyack 2.0 800 PM 3/18 public

... Suffolk County...
   Islip Airport T 800 PM 3/18 FAA contract observer

... Westchester County...
   Harrison 3.5 844 PM 3/18 public
   Scarsdale 2.5 800 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   White Plains 2.0 836 PM 3/18 Skywarn spotter
   Somers 1.0 752 PM 3/18 public

6Z GFS forecast for next week. A monster storm.

This would be a 3 day Nor'easter!  But then, it could slide out to sea, instead.  Or, bring rain.

But, it is worth watching given the powerful blocking to our north.

WPC Weather Forecast for March 18, 2013

Forecast for March 19th: v v v

Virginia-to-Maine Snowstorm Taking Shape

Virginia-to-Maine Snowstorm Taking Shape

Get ready, get set,  click!  ^ ^ ^ 

Big buzz on weather geek gossip page.

Big storm brewing one week hence.  Snow is possible.

Forecast weather for Monday, March 18. 2013.

Snow/ rain mix for New York, New Jersey metro changing to plain rain.  Some ice / sleet possible.  New England gets heavy snow.

From Upton, NY, NWS:

 

There is still some uncertainty as to exactly how much snow/sleet 
will fall before change over to freezing rain...and how long the 
freezing rain will linger into Tuesday morning. Because of these 
uncertainties and that the freezing rain will be occurring during 
morning rush hour - have a 30 percent chance that a Winter Storm 
Warning could be needed - so will highlight this threat over the 
interior in the severe weather potential statement. 

Breakthrough photography.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/deep_sea_tech_unveils_giant_sq/8112921

click link ^ ^ ^ 

Giant squid video in natural habitat.

Sunday forecast, March 17, 2013

St. Patrick's Parade will see a 30% chance of snow / rain showers. More snow / rain again Monday.

Blocking weather patterns have set up to our north and any hopes for mild weather are on hold until the pattern changes .  A very strong negative NAO and a strong AO will mean a coastal storm is very possible.  Snow may occur but it is hard to get it to stick at this time of year.

With the first day of astronomical spring very near, on Wednesday,  the sun angle is much higher than only a month ago.  The sun's rays very effectively heat the surface especially, black pavement.

But on April 7, 1982 this area was dumped on with a foot of snow,  by a very intense coastal storm.  A very rare event for April. 

We will have to wait and see if another Nor'easter develops in the next week or two.

Spring is postponed and snow and rain are in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe.

A big snow for New Jersey is not now likely but we may see some snow on Monday.

Spring on Hold; New England Snowstorm - AccuWeather.com

Spring on Hold; New England Snowstorm - AccuWeather.com

Looks like a little snow for North Jersey next Monday and then?  click link ^ ^ ^ 

Euro picks up a major east coast storm March 19/ 20.

NWS Upton Office Forecast 4 to 8" Some forecasters doubt we will reach these totals for the entire storm. The storm energy is concentrating south and east of our region.

Forecast weather map.

Coastal area watch / warning : A 3 to 8 foot storm surge may occur!

Forecasters pinpoint the storm for Wed. and Thurs. , March 6,7, 2013

The precipitation will begin Wed. afternoon, unless it begins earlier or later.

A mixture of rain/ snow or all rain,  or all snow, will occur at times or all the time up until nightfall or shortly before or after.

Wednesday night, the precipitation will become heavier or lighter depending on if the phasing occurs sooner or later.  If there is no phasing it might be partly cloudy or not.  It should turn to all snow unless the storm decides that it is too warm to bother with that.

Thursday the rain/snow will end unless it already has done so.

Total snowfall accumulation will be 1,2,4,6,8,10 inches more or less, it all depends on the temperature going up or down or staying the same.  Also your location.

Check back for further details, if they develop.

Close Call for Snow New York City to Boston

Close Call for Snow New York City to Boston

Click link ^ ^ ^ 

Coastal impact

A lot of uncertainty on this storm, but it is clear that it will have a strong impact along the coast.  high winds, surf and high tide will cause much concern.  Not a hurricane but areas already hit hard will have another nasty storm to deal with.

Historical perspective: April 7, 1982. A foot of snow in the New York Metro.

http://www.nytimes.com/1982/04/07/nyregion/rare-april-blizzard-punishes-metropolitan-new-york.html

click link ^ ^ ^ 

One forecaster after another jumps on to the snow bandwagon, but with one foot hanging over the edge just in case they want to jump off tomorrow!

Probably 2 to 4 inches is possible over much of Northern New Jersey.  Some higher amounts could occur as well as much less.  

Still, wait and see!  ( 2/4", 3/6", 6/10", ?)  (rain?)

12Z GFS goes for broke with a big nor' Easter. Looks screwy to me.

Seldom is there more uncertainty and opposing views on a weather event less than 3 days away!

This week the storm is not likely to be a snowmaker for North Jersey. Despite some support from some models for snow, a rain / snow mix is most likely. The GFS is probably out to lunch on a northward turn, that it is showing.

Latest data from the GFS brings precip into our area, within 72 hours. Overnight, all the other model data will help to zero in on what changes may be afoot. A possibility of snow for New York, NJ Metro is still present, but far from likely. A tough forecast ahead. Stay tuned.

So the question is this, do we now see the GFS catching on to something or,  is it one big error?

Heavy, Wet Snow May Cause Power Outages for Delmarva

Heavy, Wet Snow May Cause Power Outages for Delmarva

Can it be too cold to Snow?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/winter-break/too_cold_to_snow/6953983

Click here for Accuweather answer ^ ^ ^

Weather Forecast map from HPC, Tuesday, March 5, 2013. New York, New Jersey Metro area should miss the worst of it, on Wednesday and Thursday. We may get rain!

Wednesday map comes out later.

Latest on the Storm Next Week - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog

Latest on the Storm Next Week - Meteorological Madness Weather Blog

The take from Henry M.  click ^ ^ ^

As the jet stream energy comes ashore, from the Northern Pacific, there will be better data collection begining tomorrow. Sunday night or Monday, the path of the storm, should become clear. At this point, it could be a hit or a miss.

March 6, 7 is when the New York, New Jersey Metro area may be impacted.  As of Saturday night it looks like only South Jersey will see moderate snow.  Coastal flooding from wind driven tides and surf is a concern.

East Coast Monster Storm Risk Next Week

East Coast Monster Storm Risk Next Week

click here to Accuweather ^ ^ ^ 

From Upton, NY office of the NWS

During the middle of the week the focus will be centered around a 
strong east coastal storm. This storm could bring heavy 
precipitation and strong winds to our local area Wednesday into 
Thursday. However...there is still too much uncertainty this far out 
to attempt to pin down specific impacts. 


The jet stream disturbance that will generate this potential storm 
is over the North Pacific today. The disturbance will reach the 
Pacific northwest on Sunday. At that time...details of possible 
impacts will start to come into focus. Will increase probability of precipitation from 
Wednesday through Thursday...but still remain in chance category. The 
timing will ultimately determine the track and strength of the low 
as well as precipitation amounts and ptype. 


With the local area on the northern side of the storm...a prolonged 
strong east to east-northeast flow will develop as well. 

We are back to waiting to see what happens. If the snow /rain gets as far north as NJ, this would be about as far as it could go. There is a strong tendency for this storm to slide east and more or less miss North Jersey. Wait and see what things look like Sunday night. It is clear that a large storm will affect portions of the East Coast US. Exactly where is not clear yet.

Storm Next Week Versus Deadly Storm of '62

Storm Next Week Versus Deadly Storm of '62

Oh, oh!  Click here. ^ ^ ^ 

Guess what.? The models bring the storm up our way with snow and rain next week. The storm is large,powerful and slow moving. Not good for coastal areas.

The storm is still 6 days away.  We will not have a clear focus on the weather forecast,  until Sunday or Monday, at the earliest.  It could bring lots of snow and / or rain, along with coastal flooding and strong winds.  Or, it could slide off to our south.

Multiple computer models agree on a large storm next week and that indicates that something is more likely to occur, even at this early time.

Potential weather impact zone for March 6, 7 2013. Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut.