Monday, December 31, 2012
Cold for this week but then a milding trend in the East, for January
After watching DT from Wxrisk .com, it looks like we will develop another mild spell. Do your skiing now.
The cold will hold until about January 8th. About the 12th, expect rain.
The cold will hold until about January 8th. About the 12th, expect rain.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Snow totals for New York / New Jersey Metro
Connecticut
... Fairfield County...
Bridgeport 0.8 100 PM 12/29 coop observer
... New Haven County...
New Haven 1.8 439 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Wallingford 0.8 356 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... New London County...
Ledyard Center 1.0 437 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
New Jersey
... Bergen County...
Ridgewood 2.1 401 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Rivervale 2.0 439 PM 12/29 public
... Essex County...
Cedar Grove 2.7 438 PM 12/29 public
Millburn 2.0 200 PM 12/29 public
West Orange 1.7 200 PM 12/29 public
Newark Airport 1.1 430 PM 12/29 FAA contract observer
... Hudson County...
Harrison 1.0 253 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Passaic County...
Haskell 3.0 408 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Ringwood 2.4 415 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Union County...
Union 1.5 253 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Elizabeth 1.4 200 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
New York
... New York County...
Central Park T 100 PM 12/29 Central Park Zoo
... Orange County...
Middletown 4.1 440 PM 12/29 public
Greenville 3.5 355 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
south Blooming Grove 1.3 236 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia 0.1 430 PM 12/29 FAA contract observer
NYC/JFK Airport T 430 PM 12/29 FAA contract observer
... Rockland County...
New City 1.4 401 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Congers 0.8 200 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Westchester County...
Somers 1.0 120 PM 12/29 public
NY NJ PA WEATHER .com Comment from Steve D.
Good chance that we will EXCEED snowfall forecast> None of the models predicted this to happen.
Latest NAM shows Northeast NJ in the 4 to 7" snow zone.
You just wait and watch to see what we get. The snow is light to moderate in many areas.
Looks like New Jersey is in the dry slot. That means less snow. @ 6 AM.
This could be temporary until the low hits the coastline and intensifies. Radar will show by late morning if the snow will really get going or not.
The dark patch over AL,GA.NC,VA,MD is dry air headed toward NJ. The white patch over SC,NC VA coastline is the developing storm. Which will affect NJ today? So far, looks like the 2 disturbances are not joining or phasing.
Friday, December 28, 2012
Light to Moderate Snowfall Saturday , ONSET 7am to 10 am in Northern New Jersey, New York City Metro. Active weather pattern continues with colder conditions as the New Year approaches.
Mostly a 2 to 4 inch snow is likely. There have been some indications , that the weather system will phase a little sooner than thought earlier. If so, accumulations could be higher. ( 4 to 6" ) The scientific method employed for this forecast was that I looked at the map with the most snow on it, and wrote that into this blog. The NAM is snowier at this the 12Z run.
A January 2,3 snow is possible according to DT at Wxrisk .com and on Facebook. There is no sign of it, at this time on the GFS or Euro.
I take that back, GFS adds another 4" snow on top of what we have, about Jan. 2nd. Hooray!
A January 2,3 snow is possible according to DT at Wxrisk .com and on Facebook. There is no sign of it, at this time on the GFS or Euro.
I take that back, GFS adds another 4" snow on top of what we have, about Jan. 2nd. Hooray!
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Storm throws a hard punch in Northern New Jersey!
Starting between 2 and 3 pm, the snow very quickly began falling at a heavy pace. Roadways were quickly coated and hazardous and as is usual, it was hard to find a salt truck. It struck just as rush hour was beginning. Heavy snow and wind produced conditions reminiscent of past blizzards. A quick one inch coating was put down before sleet began mixing in around 4 pm. Temperatures hovered near 30 degrees, but were expected to rise after nightfall.
A 2-3" accumulation was common, up to 6" in NW Jersey. A foot or more in Ski Country up North.
A 2-3" accumulation was common, up to 6" in NW Jersey. A foot or more in Ski Country up North.
Monday, December 24, 2012
December 26, 27th, storm, ONSET for North Jersey about noon to 2 pm. Wednesday.
PS: It would not be a good idea to be on the road when this starts. Even though forecasts call for rain; ... ice or snow at the onset is possible. Exactly where you are in New Jersey/ New York Metro will be critical as to what weather to expect on Wednesday.
Wednesday, Caldwell, NJ. Forecast:
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with ice pellets and rain. High of 39F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80% .
Late update: NAM shows a big influx of warm air, if the other models follow through , the snow / ice threat is over. We shall see.
Awaiting our Christmas snow in Northern NJ
26th, 27th storm will be mostly snow only in north and west NJ. New Years storm still possible.
Early afternoon updated model run.
0Z Euro showed 8". Nah.
1 to 3 inches still looks like the best bet. Especially from Rte. 287 and Northwest. Flakes will be flying most places tonight.
7 pm: snowing in Edison, Scotch Plains, Basking Ridge, Carteret, Jersey City, New Brunswick, Rutherford, Andover, Freehold, Wayne.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Early afternoon updated model run.
0Z Euro showed 8". Nah.
1 to 3 inches still looks like the best bet. Especially from Rte. 287 and Northwest. Flakes will be flying most places tonight.
7 pm: snowing in Edison, Scotch Plains, Basking Ridge, Carteret, Jersey City, New Brunswick, Rutherford, Andover, Freehold, Wayne.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Sunday, December 23, 2012
A White Christmas? Yes for many.
Although only 1 to 3 inches in most places , and rain mixing in, there will be snowflakes falling. Starting Xmas Eve (7pm- 9pm) and ending early on Christmas day, before dawn.
Dec. 26&27: Snow at the start mixing with sleet, freezing rain and rain. Changing back to snow before ending Thursday. Some accumulation.
New Years: Some snow possible, turning quite cold, then, more snow possible a few days after.
New York City will see mostly rain the first two storms. New Jersey will see the most snow North and West. The usual in these iffy situations.
4 to 8 inches North and West and less as you go south and east. NYC, wet streets.
Update Sunday pm: most areas on the 26th will see mostly rain.
Dec. 26&27: Snow at the start mixing with sleet, freezing rain and rain. Changing back to snow before ending Thursday. Some accumulation.
New Years: Some snow possible, turning quite cold, then, more snow possible a few days after.
New York City will see mostly rain the first two storms. New Jersey will see the most snow North and West. The usual in these iffy situations.
4 to 8 inches North and West and less as you go south and east. NYC, wet streets.
Update Sunday pm: most areas on the 26th will see mostly rain.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Friday, December 21, 2012
It Could be a White Christmas After All
It Could be a White Christmas After All
Hang your stockings and say your prayers, because Santa Claus is coming to town.
Hang your stockings and say your prayers, because Santa Claus is coming to town.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Madison, Wisconsin, storm report.
A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until midnight CST tonight.
* Timing... heavy snow will continue to fall through the early
evening and gradually diminish from west to east overnight.
Blustery northwest winds will reduce visibility through midnight.
* Snow accumulations... 4 to 7 inches of snowfall from noon through
early evening... with greatest amounts in Madison... Fond Du Lac
and Janesville. Storm total snow amounts will be 12 to 20
inches. Thundersnow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may
briefly occur.
* Winds... north 20 to 30 mph becoming northwest with gusts of 40
to 50 mph through early evening.
* Impacts... travel difficult or impossible through this evening.
Significant blowing and drifting snow and potential for near
zero visibility... whiteouts... and blizzard conditions this
afternoon and evening.
* Timing... heavy snow will continue to fall through the early
evening and gradually diminish from west to east overnight.
Blustery northwest winds will reduce visibility through midnight.
* Snow accumulations... 4 to 7 inches of snowfall from noon through
early evening... with greatest amounts in Madison... Fond Du Lac
and Janesville. Storm total snow amounts will be 12 to 20
inches. Thundersnow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may
briefly occur.
* Winds... north 20 to 30 mph becoming northwest with gusts of 40
to 50 mph through early evening.
* Impacts... travel difficult or impossible through this evening.
Significant blowing and drifting snow and potential for near
zero visibility... whiteouts... and blizzard conditions this
afternoon and evening.
Rain and wind tonight
There will be a good drenching rain and strong winds tonight, it tapers off tomorrow turning colder, maybe some snow showers late in the day or evening.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
My own forecast for Dec. 27th, taken verbatim from 0z GFS
Snow / sleet begins before dawn Thursday, continues during the day, possibly mixing with freezing rain or rain in the afternoon, changing back to snow, ending overnight Thursday into Friday.
Northern sections will see the most frozen precip.
Central and southern Jersey the most rain.
All areas will change over back to snow before the storm ends.
Moderate accumulations.
Northern sections will see the most frozen precip.
Central and southern Jersey the most rain.
All areas will change over back to snow before the storm ends.
Moderate accumulations.
Privatize the Weather Service? Oh, really?
Our Big Government funds the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, HPC and NOAA and many other agencies. Everyday, they provide weather data, forecasts, satellite images, computer model forecast maps, climatological data and many other services, around the clock. From Alaska to Hawaii to Los Angeles to Houston to Boston.
It is all FREE. Anyone can use it and many do, for their own business.
Do you know any corporation that is willing and able to do the same?
It is all FREE. Anyone can use it and many do, for their own business.
Do you know any corporation that is willing and able to do the same?
A Parade of storms are coming our way, possibly turning colder.
The forecast goes something like this: one storm after another , one every few days, bringing, snow, rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, rain snow and rain. Got it? 12/ 27 is still a possible snow maker. And even another rain/ snow maker on or before Christmas.
The weather men will be very busy the next 2 weeks. The forecasts will change often. Enjoy the sunny mild weather now.
Stratospheric warming in the the Arctic, indicates that cold air is building in Canada and may work toward New Jersey / New York City and affect our weather forecast, eventually.
In the 2 weeks ahead the most likely snowy and icy weather will be inland with elevation. New England ski mountains should pick up repeated new snow. In fact, the snow will be the wet sticky variety which is good for sticking to the slopes to form a good base. But there may also be periods of ice and rain as well, until much colder air may or may not, move in.
Lake Effect snow areas will get a lot of snow beginning Friday and Saturday. It all depends on if we stay with the Great Lakes storm track or switch to the coastal low storm track. It is all up in the air as they say.
THE WORD IS STORMY. Most often it will start as snow, transition to ice and end as rain, before turning briefly back to snow. A mess.
Thanks to DT,@ Wxrisk.com, Elliot Abrams @ Accuweather, Steve DiMartino @ NYNJPA WEATHER .com.and the National Weather Service for providing most of the data and maps.
The weather men will be very busy the next 2 weeks. The forecasts will change often. Enjoy the sunny mild weather now.
Stratospheric warming in the the Arctic, indicates that cold air is building in Canada and may work toward New Jersey / New York City and affect our weather forecast, eventually.
In the 2 weeks ahead the most likely snowy and icy weather will be inland with elevation. New England ski mountains should pick up repeated new snow. In fact, the snow will be the wet sticky variety which is good for sticking to the slopes to form a good base. But there may also be periods of ice and rain as well, until much colder air may or may not, move in.
Lake Effect snow areas will get a lot of snow beginning Friday and Saturday. It all depends on if we stay with the Great Lakes storm track or switch to the coastal low storm track. It is all up in the air as they say.
THE WORD IS STORMY. Most often it will start as snow, transition to ice and end as rain, before turning briefly back to snow. A mess.
Thanks to DT,@ Wxrisk.com, Elliot Abrams @ Accuweather, Steve DiMartino @ NYNJPA WEATHER .com.and the National Weather Service for providing most of the data and maps.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
click here ^
One map for Dec. 27th, showing a snowstorm for the East Coast.
click here ^
From HPC, map for Christmas day.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg
Now what is that low over Louisiana up to? Nobody knows. Yet. Thanks Fred Pickhardt.
I think that we may have a better chance for a snowstorm shortly after the New Year.
I think that we may have a better chance for a snowstorm shortly after the New Year.
Monday, December 17, 2012
About Dec. 26th, will be a day to watch for New Jersey / New York Metro Weather.
There are signs of a snow and ICE storm setting up at about that time. At 10 days away, it is very far out in time to know if it will occur. An unusual blocking pattern may set up causing a pretty good sized winter storm, with ice featured, especially over more southern areas.
Thanks to DT at Wxrisk on Facebook and the web.
Thanks to DT at Wxrisk on Facebook and the web.
Winter Starts Friday and Weather Will Match - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Winter Starts Friday and Weather Will Match - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Click above link for video and story. ^
You want snow? Go North young man, go north!
Take a L@@K at STOWE, VERMONT! >>>>>>>>>>>
Click above link for video and story. ^
You want snow? Go North young man, go north!
Take a L@@K at STOWE, VERMONT! >>>>>>>>>>>
Snowstorms Focus on Northern New England This Week
Snowstorms Focus on Northern New England This Week
Click above link to Accuweather story and video. ^
Click above link to Accuweather story and video. ^
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Looking at the 0Z Euro maps and all I can say is that this winter is busted until further notice.
I just read on one of the forums that December 2012, so far, is one of the warmest on record. There is no real arctic air in reach, even though the models keep calling for it a week from now. The cold air, so far, refuses to actually show up on cue. Mother nature sometimes refuses to do as the models expect.
Take a look at Stowe, Vt. on the right >>>>>>>
Take a look at Stowe, Vt. on the right >>>>>>>
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Christmas forecast map, really cold IF it verifies. From Wxrisk.com on Facebook and Allen Huffman's web page.
Stormy, Snowy Weather May Bring Holiday Travel Delays
Stormy, Snowy Weather May Bring Holiday Travel Delays
Check out the details from Accuweather. Click above for text and video.
Check out the details from Accuweather. Click above for text and video.
BIG changes coming by the end of next week to New Jersey / New York City Metro.
The Euro is in and seems to have made up it's mind. We will begin with rain from Sunday, the 16th. into Tuesday, the 18th. There may be some snow in the coldest places.
The storm at the end of the week will bring rain at first, possibly changing to snow. Next Saturday Dec. 22 will be cold and windy with snow or snow showers possible.
There will be dramatically colder and windy conditions a week from today, right up to Christmas.
DT at Wxrisk.com and on Facebook still thinks a day after Christmas snowstorm may be coming our way.
What seems certain is that it will be a colder and windy weather pattern as we near Christmas. And the plains and Mid West will get a full on Blizzard by the end of this coming week.
Keep in mind, as I said before, that the cold air has to actually show up, live and in person, next weekend. Let's see what happens.
Full on Blizzard for next Thursday, look out Iowa and Wisconsin.
The storm at the end of the week will bring rain at first, possibly changing to snow. Next Saturday Dec. 22 will be cold and windy with snow or snow showers possible.
There will be dramatically colder and windy conditions a week from today, right up to Christmas.
DT at Wxrisk.com and on Facebook still thinks a day after Christmas snowstorm may be coming our way.
What seems certain is that it will be a colder and windy weather pattern as we near Christmas. And the plains and Mid West will get a full on Blizzard by the end of this coming week.
Keep in mind, as I said before, that the cold air has to actually show up, live and in person, next weekend. Let's see what happens.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Today is Friday, Dec. 14th, here is the Christmas forecast, as of now.
Christmas Eve: cold, breezy, chance of flurries
Christmas Day: cold, breezy, chance of flurries
Between now and Dec. 25, there will be several storms which will bring northern NJ, mostly rain and maybe some snow.
Skiers from Pennsylvania to New England may be treated to two snowfalls.
This particular weather pattern brings in much uncertainty to the next 12 days. There is a chance of a major snowfall right after Christmas. DT at Wxrisk.com thinks so.
Christmas Day: cold, breezy, chance of flurries
Between now and Dec. 25, there will be several storms which will bring northern NJ, mostly rain and maybe some snow.
Skiers from Pennsylvania to New England may be treated to two snowfalls.
This particular weather pattern brings in much uncertainty to the next 12 days. There is a chance of a major snowfall right after Christmas. DT at Wxrisk.com thinks so.
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
( click above for video ) Excellent video from Accuweather!!!
( click above for video ) Excellent video from Accuweather!!!
Thursday, December 13, 2012
The afternoon 12Z ECMWF is coming in.
Still looks like rain for NJ next week but upstate NY and New England get a decent snowfall.
After that it looks like colder air will filter in all the way to Christmas. The models, even the Euro, have not been doing so well in December, so I would not count on this trend. But the rain next week looks pretty certain, no snow, for New Jersey, New York Metro.
After that it looks like colder air will filter in all the way to Christmas. The models, even the Euro, have not been doing so well in December, so I would not count on this trend. But the rain next week looks pretty certain, no snow, for New Jersey, New York Metro.
The 3 Day Rule on Snowstorms
It takes about 3 days for a weather system to travel across the USA. So anything more than 3 days in the future is still out over the Pacific Ocean, for example. In the ocean and also in Arctic regions, the observation stations are much fewer and the data is not plentiful. These uncertainties more than 3 days ahead make forcasting the weather more difficult.
Since snow is always an iffy thing in New Jersey, you really can't trust a forecast for snow more than 3 days ahead.
At this time, the large scale weather pattern does not favor snow, as pointed out by DT at Wxrisk and Elliot Abrams at Accuweather, as well as others.
A full blown snowstorm still is not likely the early part of next week for the reasons given above. We have to wait another day or two for the storm next week to come into better focus. So I am not betting on snow next week.
Keep in touch.
Since snow is always an iffy thing in New Jersey, you really can't trust a forecast for snow more than 3 days ahead.
At this time, the large scale weather pattern does not favor snow, as pointed out by DT at Wxrisk and Elliot Abrams at Accuweather, as well as others.
A full blown snowstorm still is not likely the early part of next week for the reasons given above. We have to wait another day or two for the storm next week to come into better focus. So I am not betting on snow next week.
Keep in touch.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Rain Sunday and more again later next week.
A lack of cold air will most likely prevent snow falling in the next two weather systems. Although some of the models are indicating snow now, as we get closer to next week, it should become clear that, if there might be some snow mixing in next week, it would happen as the storm is ending. As usual the far inland locations, with elevation, would have the best chance for getting any frozen precip.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
ACCUWEATHER: Snowy, Colder Pattern for U.S. Leading up to Christmas
Snowy, Colder Pattern for U.S. Leading up to Christmas
( click above)
Just when I had all but given up on snow in December! Things could be changing. DT at Wxrisk still sees no snow for NJ. Wait and see how this develops for Dec. 18,19.
( click above)
Just when I had all but given up on snow in December! Things could be changing. DT at Wxrisk still sees no snow for NJ. Wait and see how this develops for Dec. 18,19.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Updated Winter Forecast Model is Stormier in the East - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Updated Winter Forecast Model is Stormier in the East - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Weather model predicts normal temps and moist conditions for January through March.
Weather model predicts normal temps and moist conditions for January through March.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
December looks to end the year on a mild trend and will complete the warmest year in US history if all goes as expected.
The next storms occur tomorrow, Dec. 15, and Dec. 18th. There is little prospect for snow. We may return to seasonal temperatures but no bitter cold weather is foreseeable.
The weather models have been forecasting a shift to colder but so far, it is not showing up. Just seasonably cold in between very mild spells.
The storm track continues to be focused on the Great Lakes region. DT at Wxrisk.com does not see winter taking hold just yet, maybe January.
Christmas Eve forecast is for cloudy conditions and seasonably cold. About the same Christmas Day.
No White Christmas is seen at this time.
The weather models have been forecasting a shift to colder but so far, it is not showing up. Just seasonably cold in between very mild spells.
The storm track continues to be focused on the Great Lakes region. DT at Wxrisk.com does not see winter taking hold just yet, maybe January.
Christmas Eve forecast is for cloudy conditions and seasonably cold. About the same Christmas Day.
No White Christmas is seen at this time.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Monday, December 3, 2012
Not a good start if you like cold and snowy.
December is the start of the winter season and with 60 degree temps, this is not winter. There is still talk of a big shift in the pattern about Dec. 15th. We shall see, otherwise it is starting out as a mild winter. My old rule of thumb has been that if we see snow early on, then the winter later on will not be snowy. We had snow right after the hurricane, and that WAS early!
Christmas Eve forecast from Accuweather: Rain showers 46 degrees. Oh, Boo!
Christmas Eve forecast from Accuweather: Rain showers 46 degrees. Oh, Boo!
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Euro predicts snow for Dec. 10th.
For what it is worth, 6 to 12 inches on the latest map. From Henry Margusity at Accuweather.com.
A major cold outbreak may occur about Dec. 15th.
The Euro has not been performing well recently so , forget the snow unless you live in Minnesota. ( 12/4 update )
DT at Wxrisk.com correctly said the snow was not headed for the East Coast.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)