Gradually less cold then, maybe snow next weekend.

Three computer models show a coastal storm sometime next weekend. Snow or a wintry mix is a possibility still but, much too far away to gas up the snowblowers, just yet. This one might also slide out to our south.

The week is dry except for a slim chance of very light snow Tuesday night/ Wednesday.

Southern NJ did get a few inches of snow and even Long Branch got a coating Saturday. Atlantic City airport had 8 inches.

Arctic front crossing New Jersey.

@2:45 pm the arctic front is crossing New Jersey. It will pass over norteast NJ in the next 1 to 2 hours. Snow showers or snow squalls are approaching. While it may snow hard for a brief time, clearing will soon follow. A coating of new snow may make travel hazardous.

Windy and much colder air will follow in the wake of the Arctic front.

Very cold and windy this weekend. The snow storm to our south could move far enough north to give us just a little snow Saturday. South Jersey could see some accumulating snow.

Tue,Wed. chance of light snow. Not as cold.

Next weekend, major snow possible. Very iffy at this point.

Another Arctic outbreak could occur the following week.

Polar Vortex

On the map provided by the University of Wyoming, we can see the polar vortex. with a center of circulation, near Russia and a high pressure center, near Alaska. This is the 10 mb. map.

Accuweather's Elliot Abrams points out that such a configuration serves as a signal for cold weather in the lower latitudes. See Elliot Abrams blog for Feb. 1st. for a closer look at the polar vortex on ACCUWEATHER.COM.

Heavy snow showers snarl traffic.

It was not supposed to be this way, this morning, but, we will be getting heavy snow showers with accumulations of a coating to an inch. More snow showers or squalls this afternoon or evening, with some light accumulations are possible.

The snow moving across Pennsylvania last night, should have weakened as it came down from the mountains to the coast. It didn't. Accuweather .com states that some warm moist air to our south moved up overhead and caused the snow burst.

After a lull, more snow will move through this afternoon.

Turning very cold tonight and tomorrow. We will be visited by the polar vortex this weekend. Brrrr!

This makes me wonder if the snow will really miss us Saturday.

Snow will miss our area and move to our South. Again.

If at first you don't succeed try, try again.

Plenty of cold air, will keep the storm away from northern NJ, this weekend. Just about all the forecast models seem to be in agreement, so far. Here is hoping that things do not shift to the north again.

We have at least two more chances for snow over the next 10 days. THINK SNOW!

Too cold to snow? Not really, but this time it looks like that old saying will apply.

Mild then cool, then cold, then snow?? Very cold weekend.

Is the forecast uncertain? You better believe it.

TUESDAY UPDATE:

Turning colder as the week goes on. That is the part, that we can rely on.

Light snow is likely Fri. / Sat. But, it is not guaranteed. The NWS rates our chances at 40 to 50 %.

Heavy snow is possible, especially for southern areas, toward Philadelphia. As usual , the only certainty, is that things will be uncertain.

The questions in the forecast, will remain for another day or two, at least.

Think snow!

More cold will follow, this weekend. The polar vortex, now has two centers of circulation. This often serves as a signal, for cold weather down the road; according to a previous report by Accuweather's Elliot Abrams.

Siberia Update for Monday:

- 70 below zero. At Ojmajakon, Russia. A town in northeastern Siberia,below the Arctic Circle.

Stormy overnight and Monday morning. Very mild.

Heavy rain and wind will develop overnight,with a soggy commute tomorrow morning.

It will cool down later in the week with even a chance of snow on the weekend.

February is our snowy month and it looks like snow and cold will head our way next month.

Mild ,wet Sunday and Monday, then winter returns later next week.

We are nearing the end of our thaw and will switch back to cold weather, until further notice.

A big shot of warm rain begins Sunday, ending by Monday afternoon. A flash flood watch is up for expected 1 & 1/2 to 2 & 1/2 inches of rain.

Things will cool down by the middle of next week.

No big storms on the horizon next week, but things could change, by the time Groundhog Day arrives.

The big California storm, set record low barometer readings there and will bring us rain Sunday.

Snow will miss our area and move to our South.

February is snow month for New Jersey, so, be patient.

Forecasters are speculating that February will see a return of cold weather. Accuweather.com has more.

Snow still possible Friday. A real close call on this one.

Since the Canadian model, has done pretty well in forecasting snow this winter, and it shows snow for NJ, for Friday, I will go with that forecast.

Accuweather.com and Joe Bastardi still call for snow Friday, also.

The GFS has even moved the snow up toward us a little closer, than previously.

So, it looks like some snow for us, this Friday. 1 to 3 inches is still a good guess.

Let's see what happens. Will it be a hit....or a miss????

You could always toss a coin and make a forecast that way too.

Chance of snow Thursday night and Friday.

We are on the northern edge but, a couple of inches is possible. About 1 to 3 inches. Southern NJ is most likely to see the snow.

This is not a major snow.

After the next rainstorm , Sunday and Monday, we will go back to cold weather.

SIBERIA UPDATE

The forecast for Sunday calls for a low temperature of -88 below zero !

Accuweather February outlook

Accuweather expects February to see a return to cold weather. A weakening El Nino is a key factor in their forecast.

While I would not bet a lot of money on it, their forecasts have been more accurate than most.

Joe Bastardi explains in his video on the Accweather.com website.

I expect a late spring because that has been a trend here, in recent years.

Winter weather advisory for Sussex and NJ Highlands

Freezing rain, sleet , snow with up to 4 to 5 inches of accumulation overnight. Hazardous travel expected.

A mix of rain and ice may fall during the day but falling temperatures this evening will produce all snow and ice overnight.

Sussex, Warren, Morris and upper Passaic counties will be affected.

Other areas will see almost all rain. But don't count on it.

Past experience has shown that you will be making your own weather as you go, so check conditions closely before venturing out.

Mostly rain Sunday, not as cold next week.

We could see snow and ice at the very start of the morning on Sunday, then rain. Maybe some snow or ice again at night. The highlands have the best chance for snow/ice, as usual.

Next week will be not as cold as this week, but also, not as mild, as first appeared earlier this week.

Plenty of storms headed our way the next 2 weeks, one of which could bring in some mild air.

Tricky forecast for Sunday. Snow or Rain?

Only 12 hours ago, rain seemed almost certain for Sunday. Now, things are dicey for Sunday. The best bet is that the farther inland you are and the greater your elevation, the more likely a wet snow could accumulate. 3 to 6 inches would not be ruled out.

Another nail biter forecast. Stay tuned for the latest developments.

Forecast below, for what it is worth.

Milder weather with a good chance of snow/rain on Sunday. We are on a milder weather trend for the next week or two.

We will have milder weather, Thursday through Saturday. Even normal temperatures, should feel warm, compared to what we have had.

We probably will see a storm move up the coast, this weekend. The storm will bring rain to the Gulf states. New Jersey could get rain, mostly.

If the system gets this far up the coast, it could bring snow or rain this Sunday. Sussex county may be the only place cold enough for travel problems. Sleet and freezing rain could develop. High elevations will have to watch out.

Next week, looks a lot like a January thaw, with temperatures above normal.

We are probably good for 10 days of relatively mild winter weather. Storms will occur, but mostly rain will be the result.

February could very well be, a return to cold and snowy.

Snow,cold,milder then the big storm next weekend

I don't trust the forecasts for tomorrow, I will just wait and see what happens. Friday will be snowy, but how snowy remains to be seen.

Very cold this weekend.

Turning milder later in the week. A January thaw perhaps, even if a little ahead of the usual schedule.

The big storm comes in about 8 days next weekend. I see a cold high to the north and a Gulf low to the south so, that could be real trouble, as the GFS shows it. But it keeps changing.

It could be rain,snow,mix or all of the above. The exact track is not known and won't be until later next week. But then again, storms far in the future seldom work out as advertised.

A memorable exception occurred for New Year's 1999. A major snowstorm was forecast for Chicago at least a week ahead of time. I knew that my flight was scheduled to land in Chicago on that very day. I never thought that the storm would actually appear as forecast. But a week later, my airliner could not land in Chicago, because they had over 20 inches of snow! The forecast model really nailed that one!

Did you know that in the earlier days of weather forecasting, there were some forecasters who often did much better than others? Yet, when asked to explain how they were more successful, they could not give an answer. And, when they tried to train others to do what they did, they were not able to do so.

Do you believe in intuitive reasoning? I do. You get an answer to a problem yet, the thought process itself, cannot be expressed. I hope that does not sound like voodoo. It is just that there is so much that is not known, about how the human mind works.

I am signing off for a couple of days, nice weather is to be appreciated, even if it is cold. Also, I will be recovering from a nasty cold virus.

Siberia, update -60 below zero

The weather will always surprise you!

Light snow on the way Thursday night and Friday.

We are looking at very little moisture but it comes down during the morning commute, Friday. 1 to 3 inches is most likely. A light, fluffy, snow is expected. There are some indications that the snow figures will need to be revised upward.

The NAM forecast model showed a subtle but important change. A small low pressure center will form right on the NJ coast, with an arm of snow reaching back toward land. In future runs, this feature may expand and produce a quick shot of heavier snow.

It is wait and watch time on this system. Unfortunately, forecasting the rapid development of such a feature, is a known weakness of the forecast models. A forecaster must resort to surface observations and experience with prior systems of this type to make a good call.

That seems to be the way some of the forecasters at Accuweather.com handle it. Joe and Henry may be vindicated. Let's hope so.

By the way, if you don't like snow, you should not be reading this blog.

I find it interesting that the models show less precipitation than the current system is actually producing. Hmmmm.

The best advice that I heard was to declare your own snow day tomorrow. Travel could get snarled by snow and icing on ramps and bridges.

And, when you think about it, how much difference is there if we get 1 or 2 inches vs. 4 or 5. You still have snow underfoot.

A very cold and breezy weekend is in store.

Next week could turn milder from Wednesday on.

A little snow with plenty of wind and cold.

The clipper headed our way Thursday night and Friday morning should not amount to much unless it rapidly intensifies as soon as it reaches the coast. No forecasters seem to be expecting that to happen this go round. But, since it will probably be snowing for the Friday morning commute, there could be travel problems.

A cold weekend will follow with a milder weather trend about the middle of next week.

The next storm to watch is on or about Jan. 16th. That one could go snow or rain.

Despite the cold conditions of late, so far the heating degree days are running only a little below normal. We did have our mild weather earlier but it is easy to forget that.

Light snow likely Thursday night and Friday

There is not much moisture available, for the next snow system, so accumulations should remain light, in most areas, but the Friday morning commute could still see travel problems.

Then, we go back to more cold air.

Things are tough all over, this winter

Europe is plagued by cold and snow, Beijing gets a foot of snow and heads for record low temps., Sakhalin Island, Russia is buried by a 5 day blizzard,the USA chills down and stays there, New England picks up a 20 to 40 inch snow, making that the 3rd. major snow, in the USA, this season and winter has just begun. A remarkable winter has developed. We have not seen this in at least 7 years and perhaps decades. Bad news for heating bills and pain at the gas pump. In the South, cold weather crop failure is imminent.

A 2 to 6 inch snow seems possible Friday. It will be a cold, fluffy, snow in most places followed by even more Arctic air. Try using your leaf blower, instead of a shovel. While the snowfall is still iffy, more cold weather is certain this weekend.

The Old Farmers Almanac was right.

THE WEATHER WILL ALWAYS SURPRISE YOU!

Did you know?

Parts of Japan receive up to 800 inches of snow per season, largely caused by ocean effect snow.

More cold and a chance of snow late this week. Hold on to your wallet, when the heating bill comes.

The cold,wind and snow showers continue today then it will ease up a bit tomorrow and mid-week. Wednesday, there may be a period of snow.

There is a pretty good chance of some snow Thursday late and Friday.

It will probably be light but, that could change. This storm will have more cold air to work with than the New Year's event. So, it could really clobber us, but that is not likely, so far. Once again, we may not have a clear picture until a day or two before the storm.

Over at Accuweather.com , Joe Bastardi is looking for a major, widespread, and very cold snowstorm. Would you believe that he is comparing the situation to the '96 blizzard and the Kennedy Inaugural storms?

He has been uncanny in his long range predictions. More than anyone, he sees a brutal winter ahead.

Next weekend looks very cold, no matter what the snow storm does. We are in a very negative NAO ,which usually brings cold, snowy weather.

Sunday's snow showers are wrap around moisture from the strong storm near Bar Harbor, Maine. The unusual feature of this storm is that it backed into Maine from the ocean. It traveled backwards! Burlington,Vt. received 19 inches of snow.

2009 wound up cooler and wetter than normal according to the NY Times this morning. It would follow that the winter will do likewise. Let's see what happens.

Windy and cold, next snow threat at the end of the week.

A near miss or a little light snow Thurs.- Fri. but things can change.

Happy New Year

Turning much colder and windy tonight and tomorrow with temperatures staying below freezing from late tonight and all day tomorrow. Any snow or slush still left will be solid ice tomorrow morning.

A chance of snow showers, Sunday. Winds gusty.

Snow possible at the end of next week.

January appears to be colder than normal for at least the first half of the month.

The NAO is at very low values and this favors east coast storm development.