Snowing hard just to our south and heading our way!

Surprise! The snow should hit our area around 8 or 9 am. It is not expected to come down heavy for very long but it will snow at varying rates much of the day.

A good guess would be 1 or 2 inches.

Moose Report: He is hibernating today.

If you get a headache for New Year's, it probably won't be caused by the weather. Only light snow or rain for New Year's Eve. and Day

The latest is snow likely Thursday morning. A chance of snow or mix at night. About 1 inch is all the NWS is looking for.

The forecast is rather iffy, but whatever comes down should be light. A time of periods of snow or a mix from time to time. All I can say, is to check the radar before you leave, if a little snow or rain will bother you.

The weather system does not have much moisture and the snow or mix should be on the light side, maybe 1 inch.

The NAM forecast model shows only a little snow for us. No big snowstorm here. Another GFS storm that fizzled.

The first week of 2010 will be cold and windy, no big snow foreseen, at this time. The storminess is being shipped out to sea.

Check out the late afternoon forecast, just in case things change.

New Year's Eve Forecast Times Square, NYC

The NWS forecast calls for mixed rain and snow with temperatures in the low 30's.

In northeast NJ, about the same but snowier and colder. If you live above Rte. 287 north and west, probably all snow. Sleet and rain mixing in, could cause icing difficulties. Thursday evening the precipitation is expected to be light. The later hours should be when it picks up. Party early!

Accuweather.com has a forecast of 1 to 3 inches for our area.

This forecast could change, especially if , the storm intensifies to our south and then moves up the coast. Right now, that is not the expected track. It should intensify as it moves north of our area.

Wednesday is the day to closely check the latest info.

My own guess on snow totals is seen below:

Unscientific,wild and crazy, intuitive snow prediction. Good for laughs not for planning.

NYC to Giant Stadium, 1 to 3 inches, slushy

Garden State Pkwy to Rte. 287, 2 to 4 inches

Above Rte. 287 , 4 to 8 inches

.................................................

Sleet and rain could mix in at any time.

I expect a garden variety snowstorm this time but look out New England.

That is the best guess this amateur can make. The professional forecasters won't say until Wednesday. A lot could change , so pay attention on Wednesday.

Much colder and very windy tonight and tomorrow! And Sunday was such a nice day!

How cold can it get in January?

Jan. 9, 1970 low -2, high 15, average 6 degrees. At Caldwell, NJ. That was a cold one.

Caldwell station had unofficial 49 mph wind gust Tuesday.

Colder Tuesday, then snow or mix for New Year's......

Temperatures will turn colder and become very windy tomorrow and Wednesday.

The cold eases somewhat, then a substantial snow is getting likely for New Year's Eve. and New Year's Day. Rain may mix in, mostly in areas near the coast.

Right now, it does not look like a blizzard, but we still have a couple of days before anything can be sure about this storm. The models are still not settling down on a clear forecast. The Euro shows a storm moving past us quickly, then slowing down North of us.

In the old days, a weather forecaster would simply say a good chance for snow near the end of this week. That would be based on the current weather charts and past experience. This is a snow pattern that we have here.

Based on the long range models, the first half of January should be quite cold with the risk of more snow.

Snow for New Year's Now Likely

Exactly how it will play out is far from clear but at least some substantial snow will occur Friday or Saturday. A lot could happen to the forecast over the next few days. The computer models can't make up their minds on exactly when and how much snow we will get. Some rain mixing in is also possible.

Around Jan. 7th or so, another major storm may occur. So if this one doesn't do it, we have another chance.

January so far looks quite cold and snowy. A very active weather pattern continues. The North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO is going strongly negative and that spells snowstorm on the east coast. We really have the cold high pressure to the north, like you are supposed to have, to get a snowstorm. But it just does not tell you exactly when and where.

Accuweather calls it the December to remember, so watch out.

Early, but ominous, signs of a New Year's snowstorm. Sunday update.

Sunday update: The two computer models agree on the general idea of a snowstorm but, the timing and details differ. Jan. 1,2 seems more likely,for now.

The official National Weather Service forecast calls for a chance of snow Thursday,Friday and Saturday.

The idea of a stalling storm has suddenly vanished.

Some snow showers possible Monday,early.

..........................................................................................................................
Saturday comments:

Both main forecast models now show a major snowstorm. The timing could be anywhere from Dec.31 to Jan.2.

If this does work out, we will have a memorable snowstorm. As one Accuweather forecaster put it, someone winds up with over 2 feet of snow.

It seems that the storm will stall somewhere over the ocean and such events in the past, have brought the most snow you could ever expect to see. We are talking 2 to 3 days of snow. On the GFS it takes 24 hours for the storm to move from Delaware to Long Island.

This is turning into the most interesting winter in a long time! Yet another big storm could occur Jan. 7th.

Here is hoping that I am not looking at another paper blizzard.

Milder, rainy, weather today

Rain and windy Saturday.

Sunday partly cloudy and milder.

Chance of snow Monday. Tuesday turning much colder.

WHITE CHRISTMAS. Friday was the first white Christmas since 2002, in Central Park, NYC. On that day, in 2002, 5 inches of snow fell in the afternoon and evening.

12/26 update:

New Years- a snowstorm is possible but the timing is very uncertain. When the plains blizzard winds down, we may get a better picture of what may happen. The northern and southern branches of the jet stream may merge and produce a coastal low.

The Euro forecast model shows a mega snowstorm for New Year's and the GFS also shows a more modest snow. It is very early, but when two models agree on a storm , you have to watch out.

FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST UPDATED

I have to drop the idea of a mild winter. A better description will be a stormy winter, cold spells, mild spells and plenty of rain and snow. Whatever weather you like, you'll get it! Sort of a smorgasbord winter.

It will average out near normal in the end. It will be a modified El Nino winter without the balmy weather.

HOLIDAY WEATHER FOLLOWS..........

New Year's Forecast Map, Will It Happen?

HEAVY SNOW!You won't need to be drunk to have an accident this New Year's.

CHRISTMAS WEATHER BELOW...........> UPDATED !

Christmas Eve. is dry then, Christmas day, beware of freezing drizzle Christmas Morning, an icy mix, at the start

Fortunately, the start of the rain and ice is slow and may allow some warming to occur first.

A freezing drizzle could occur early on Christmas morning ,sleet, freezing rain mix might begin in the afternoon or evening on Dec. 25th, Friday. Areas nearest the coast should have only a brief period of light icing conditions. But, that spells trouble if your car hits an icy spot.

Significant icing problems could occur further inland.

Plain rain for Saturday. There might be heavy rain and even some flooding. Good bye snow cover.

Cold air damming could cause prolonged icing, far enough inland, Friday. We need a good southerly wind to bring in the warmer air.

Inland ( Sussex, Warren, W. Morris, W. Passaic counties ) areas may get into problems Friday afternoon and evening.

NEW YEAR'S early look: Snowy, possibly, so get your snow boots ready for Times Square.

There are storms marching across the Pacific and storminess is ahead. So far, they don't look like they will glide up the coast, to give us another heavy snowstorm but, you never know, so far ahead.

Chilly,dry week then snow,ice,rain Christmas day

The 2009 Blizzard as Viewed From Space

SNOW TOTALS, A Rainy Christmas But Maybe Icy Too

PHILADELPHIA HAS RECORD 22.9 INCH SNOW TOTAL

The outlook for Christmas Eve. is rain begining late at night and there could very well be snow and icing conditions as well. Christmas day looks like all rain.

That is the outlook now but It can change. The computer models did not forecast the last storm well except at the last minute. Inland locations I would say, should expect icing problems late on Xmas Eve.

With a week of temperatures in the low to mid 30's the ground will remain frozen in many locations. Ice is almost guaranteed at the start of the precipitation.

MUCH MORE BELOW

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24 hours
for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended
to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters
and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our
home Page at weather.Gov/NYC

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
(inches) measurement


Connecticut

... Fairfield County...
Darien 9.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
New Canaan 6.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Bridgeport 6.0 1150 PM 12/19 coop
Danbury 4.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot

... Middlesex County...
Haddam 13.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Old Saybrook 11.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot

... New Haven County...
Milford 9.3 400 am 12/20 CT dot
New Haven 8.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
New Haven County 8.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
North Branford 8.0 200 am 12/20 public
Beacon Falls 5.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Meriden 5.0 421 am 12/20 CT dot
Waterbury 4.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Southbury 3.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot

... New London County...
Groton 15.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Colchester 13.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Norwich 13.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Lisbon 11.0 334 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
Paramus 9.5 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Rutherford 8.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Ridgewood 6.0 400 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Essex County...
Newark 8.0 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer

... Hudson County...
Jersey City 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Harrison 9.5 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Passaic County...
Clifton 11.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Ringwood 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Union County...
Elizabeth 11.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Clark 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Westfield 10.0 200 am 12/20 public

New York

... Kings County...
Sheepshead Bay 13.2 430 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Nassau County...
Floral Park 12.6 430 am 12/20 public
Long Beach 12.5 330 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
New Hyde Park 9.1 200 am 12/20 public

... New York County...
NYC/Central Park 9.9 100 am 12/20 Central Park Zoo
Manhattan 9.5 210 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Orange County...
Tuxedo Park 6.0 545 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Queens County...
NYC/JFK Arpt 10.9 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer
NYC/La Guardia 6.9 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer

... Suffolk County...
Upton 21.0 310 am 12/20 NWS office
Holbrook 18.5 310 am 12/20 public
Commack 18.2 500 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Medford 18.0 330 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Islip 17.1 300 am 12/20 FAA contract observer
Lindenhurst 15.3 438 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Orient 15.0 200 am 12/20 public

... Westchester County...
Armonk 6.0 530 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

Statement as of 7:33 am EST on December 20, 2009

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 12 hours
for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended
to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters
and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our
home Page at weather.Gov/phi

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
(inches) measurement


Delaware

... New Castle County...
Wilmington 17.0 100 am 12/20 New Castle County apt
Wilmington 14.0 1000 PM 12/19

... Sussex County...
Frankford 4.1 1205 am 12/20

Maryland

... Cecil County...
Colora 17.2 1005 PM 12/19

... Kent County...
Millington 20.0 815 PM 12/19

... Queen Anne's County...
Kent Island 15.0 800 PM 12/19
Kent Island 15.0 810 PM 12/19

New Jersey

... Atlantic County...
Hammonton 22.0 730 am 12/20
Folsom 20.0 126 am 12/20
Galloway 18.0 1045 PM 12/19
Atlantic City 12.1 717 am 12/20 international Airport

... Burlington County...
Medford 24.0 1050 PM 12/19
Tabernacle 24.0 728 am 12/20
Southampton 21.4 130 am 12/20
Willingboro 19.6 1100 PM 12/19
Moorestown 17.0 1030 PM 12/19
Mount Holly NWS 16.6 720 am 12/20
Wrightstown 16.0 719 am 12/20
Delran 15.0 1205 am 12/20
New Gretna 15.0 1045 PM 12/19
Mount Holly 14.7 100 am 12/20 NWS
Bordentown 11.0 1030 PM 12/19
Bordentown 11.0 1030 PM 12/20
Burlington 10.0 748 PM 12/19
Crosswicks 10.0 855 PM 12/19

... Camden County...
Atco 24.0 1100 PM 12/19
Blackwood 22.0 1210 am 12/20
Sicklerville 22.0 1205 am 12/20
Cherry Hill 20.0 830 PM 12/19 HI-Nella
Merchantville 20.0 1050 PM 12/19
Cherry Hill 19.5 1158 PM 12/19
Erial 17.5 930 PM 12/19
Somerdale 15.0 1115 PM 12/19
Brooklawn 13.0 940 PM 12/19 mount Ephram
Lindenwold 13.0 950 PM 12/19

... Cape May County...
Eldora 14.0 1030 PM 12/19
Dennisville 10.0 1030 PM 12/19
Seaville 9.5 1030 PM 12/19
South Dennis 9.5 1030 PM 12/19
Woodbine 9.3 800 PM 12/19
Green Creek 9.0 1030 PM 12/19
Swainton 8.0 1000 PM 12/19
Swainton 8.0 1025 PM 12/19
Clermont 7.0 1030 PM 12/19
Villas 7.0 1030 PM 12/19
North Cape May 6.5 1030 PM 12/19
Fishing Creek 6.0 800 PM 12/19
Erma 5.5 1030 PM 12/19
West Cape May 4.0 800 PM 12/19

... Cumberland County...
Newport 24.0 200 am 12/20
Cedarville 19.0 1030 PM 12/19
Shiloh 18.0 800 PM 12/19
Vineland 17.5 1030 PM 12/19
Bridgeton 14.0 1030 PM 12/19
Millville 14.0 800 PM 12/19

... Gloucester County...
Swedesboro 22.0 1025 PM 12/19
Turnersville 20.5 1045 PM 12/19
Sewell 19.5 943 PM 12/19
Cross Keys 19.0 940 PM 12/19
Turnersville 19.0 940 PM 12/19
Franklinville 17.0 930 PM 12/19
Gibbstown 17.0 930 PM 12/19

... Hunterdon County...
Flemington 8.3 1025 PM 12/19

... Mercer County...
Hamilton Square 14.0 1045 PM 12/19
Ewing 10.0 730 am 12/20
Hightstown 7.0 1029 PM 12/19
Hightstown 7.0 1030 PM 12/19
Hightstown 7.0 1030 PM 12/20

... Middlesex County...
East Brunswick 10.8 110 am 12/20
Hopelawn 10.2 1030 PM 12/20
North Brunswick 8.5 100 am 12/20
Newtown 8.0 852 PM 12/19
Edison 6.0 1110 PM 12/19
Milltown 5.0 1033 PM 12/19
Milltown 5.0 1030 PM 12/20
Woodbridge 4.5 1033 PM 12/19
Woodbridge 4.5 1030 PM 12/20
Metuchen 4.3 905 PM 12/19
South Plainfield 4.0 1045 PM 12/19
Iselin 3.0 1045 PM 12/19

... Monmouth County...
Colts Neck 19.5 1050 PM 12/19
Manalapan 14.0 1205 am 12/20
Freehold 12.0 830 PM 12/19 Howell TWP
Long Branch 11.0 729 am 12/20
West Long Branch 8.5 900 PM 12/19
Cream Ridge 8.1 900 PM 12/19
Holmdel 8.0 1033 PM 12/19
Holmdel 8.0 1030 PM 12/20
Marlboro 6.5 1045 PM 12/19
Morganville 5.8 900 PM 12/19

... Morris County...
Lincoln Park 9.0 1045 PM 12/19
Butler 6.5 1205 am 12/20
Marcella 4.3 1030 PM 12/19
Flanders 4.0 1045 PM 12/19

... Ocean County...
jackson#ocean 23.5 1045 PM 12/19
Bricktown 22.0 723 am 12/20
Toms River 21.0 1045 PM 12/19
Beachwood 18.5 1205 am 12/20
Bayville 17.5 900 PM 12/19
Point Pleasant Beach 17.5 1000 PM 12/19
Brookville 16.0 1030 PM 12/19 ocean TWP
Whiting 16.0 900 PM 12/19
Manahawkin 14.5 900 PM 12/19
Forked River 14.0 900 PM 12/19
Point Pleasant 14.0 900 PM 12/19
Lanoka Harbor 13.0 1045 PM 12/19

... Somerset County...
Branchburg 10.0 1000 PM 12/19
Bridgewater 9.5 130 am 12/20
Hillsborough 8.7 1215 am 12/20
Rocky Hill 8.0 1100 PM 12/19

... Sussex County...
Newton 4.0 1132 PM 12/19
Sparta 3.9 1145 PM 12/19
Hopatcong 3.0 938 PM 12/19
Wantage 3.0 728 am 12/20
Lafayette 2.5 730 am 12/20

... Warren County...
Hackettstown 6.0 1155 PM 12/19
hope 4.5 1248 am 12/20
Washington 4.0 1025 PM 12/19
Blairstown 3.5 1155 PM 12/19

Pennsylvania

... Berks County...
Maple Grove 10.0 1140 PM 12/19
Sinking Spring 7.0 830 PM 12/19
Bechtelsville 4.0 740 PM 12/19

... Bucks County...
Bensalem 12.5 1100 PM 12/19
Newtown 11.4 101 am 12/20
Bensalem 11.0 900 PM 12/19
Furlong 9.8 1230 am 12/20
Perkasie 9.6 205 am 12/20
Morrisville 8.6 1205 am 12/20
Perkasie 7.3 1158 PM 12/19
Line Lexington 6.5 900 PM 12/19 fricks

... Chester County...
West Caln 19.3 1220 am 12/20
West Chester 15.4 100 am 12/20
East Nantmeal 13.3 905 PM 12/19
Honey Brook 10.0 732 am 12/20

... Delaware County...
Folcroft 19.0 1000 PM 12/19
Upper Chichester 18.0 1000 PM 12/19
Wallingford 17.0 800 PM 12/19
Clifton Heights 16.7 230 am 12/20
Drexel Hill 16.0 729 am 12/20
Swarthmore 13.6 830 PM 12/19
media 12.0 944 PM 12/19
Broomall 11.0 800 PM 12/19

... Lehigh County...
Allentown 5.6 100 am 12/20 Lehigh Vly Intl Airport
Emmaus 5.2 115 am 12/20
Allentown 5.1 1105 PM 12/19
Schnecksville 5.0 1045 PM 12/19
Breinigsville 3.8 800 PM 12/19

... Monroe County...
East Stroudsburg 5.1 130 am 12/20
Tobyhanna 4.3 1240 am 12/20

... Montgomery County...
Wynnewood 16.5 1230 am 12/20
King of Prussia 14.2 1230 am 12/20
Willow Grove 13.3 1100 PM 12/19
Abington 13.2 1100 PM 12/19
Trappe 12.2 1200 am 12/20
Royersford 11.7 904 PM 12/19
Elkins Park 11.3 1015 PM 12/19
Elkins Park 11.3 1014 PM 12/19
Montgomeryville 11.0 1246 am 12/20
Eagleville 10.0 930 PM 12/19
Ambler 9.5 1133 PM 12/20
Royersford 8.3 910 PM 12/19
Pottstown 8.0 729 am 12/20

... Northampton County...
Martins Creek 3.5 935 PM 12/19

... Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia 23.2 717 am 12/20 international Airport
Philadelphia 14.8 1045 PM 12/19
Philadelphia 11.5 230 am 12/20
Somerton 10.5 1030 PM 12/20

A week of partly cloudy weather up until Christmas Eve when rain and possibly snow or ice will move in. Christmas day looks like rain. That is today's outlook and it could very well change. The computer models did not forecast the last storm well and they can't be trusted until we get within a day or two of Xmas.

Cold and Snowy Pattern Begins This Weekend

Christmas weather maps!

Accuweather posts a heavy snow warning for southern New Jersey.

THURSDAY COMMENTS:

Forecasters see signs the snow will expand to the North as well.

A quite windy and cold Thursday morning.

Friday- not much happening,cold,less wind.

A chance of light snow Saturday into Sunday. It still looks like the heavy snow will miss us, but doubts are present. 1 to 4 inches is a good guess for the Metro area. The storm track is not yet certain, so things could change by forecast time tomorrow morning. Two forecast models show NJ getting more snow, we have to wait to see if the other models agree.

South Jersey and shore areas will be most affected,with as much as 6 inches of snow or more,strong winds,coastal flooding.

Christmas Forecast: Rain and/or snow ending as snow showers. It could begin Christmas Eve. If you believe this forecast, you must also believe in elves.

A major widespread winter storm does appear likely, just who gets a big pile of snow is not now known. It might be New Jersey, it might be the mid-west. This storm dives down to the Gulf of Mexico, and then makes a sharp turn to the North. Then what?..........

THE Christmas snowstorm is shown by the forecast maps above. Snow or rain on the way! A classic Nor'easter. ho! ho! ho!

Weekend snow remains uncertain,but the threat is now increasing.

Now, some new developments since Tuesday, so far, it could snow over most of the state. It would be a light snow. We can count on cold weather through Christmas.

Wednesday evening update: GFS shows snow over much of NJ, Saturday night into Sunday, the most snow south and along the coast. The extreme inland northwest may get none. A very close call. 1 to 4 inches seems reasonable for New York City and us. But, that is a wild guess at this early point in time. Friday morning should be when all the hemming and hawing will end and we will know what this dang system is going to do. It does not look like a crippling snowstorm.

It seems there is a bit of a trend to bring the storm closer to us and cause accumulating snow across most of the state Saturday night into Sunday.

The Christmas storm is now a soaking rain, but a secondary coastal storm is now showing up on the map. If the secondary intensifies enough, we could have a very White Christmas. We have 9 days to wait. Remember, we were once looking for a big storm on the 17th, and that won't happen tomorrow.

I am really pulling for the Santa Blizzard, we have a good shot at it.

This winter is getting interesting. The El Nino, may not have as big an influence after all.

As someone on ACCUWEATHER.COM put it, the Sunday storm may be a fishy blizzard far out at sea. The European Model showed that this morning.

Hats off to Joe Bastardi at accuweather.com, so far his cold, snowy, outlook for this winter is now shaping up. He is optimistic for a White Christmas.

David Ludlum: " The weather will always surprise you!"

READ BELOW.

Weekend snow?

Forecast models show a snowstorm but, it may be too far out in the ocean to bother most of New Jersey except the shore areas , especially southern areas, this weekend. It is too soon to make a good call on this one.

It is encouraging that most models now show a storm but, they don't agree on a track. There seems to be enough cold air for snow and the cold could well persist up to Christmas.

Certainly, the ingredients are there for a big snow.

The GFS,once again, is showing an east coast snowstorm for Christmas Eve. and Christmas day. Dream on.

Tuesday,cloudy,mild a few early showers. Turning colder tonight and tomorrow.

Wed.-Fri.- count on cold weather about 30 to 35 degrees. Partly sunny.

Sat.-Sun. chance of light snow on either day. Continued cold.

Cold and Snowy Pattern Begins Late This Week, Maybe.

Just for fun, look at the Christmas Night snowstorm map on the GFS. (above)

A partly sunny Monday and milder, Tuesday still mild with a few showers possible.

Wednesday colder and cold weather will remain through the weekend.

A chance of light snow on Saturday or Sunday.

Right now, it looks like cold weather will remain through Christmas. The weather pattern is shifting toward colder conditions and a possible coastal storm as early as this weekend. We all have to wait and see.

A key development is a blocking high pressure over Greenland which steers storms up the eastern seaboard instead of out to sea. A flow of Arctic air may develop as well. This could set up the cold snowy pattern first predicted last summer. ....stay tuned....

Storm threats ease,milder weather with mostly rain Sunday and Tuesday.

Precipitation will be moving into Essex and Union counties during
the next hour. In some areas... temperatures remain at or slightly
below freezing. This will result in a period of light freezing
rain in spots. As temps rise above freezing during the next couple
of hours... all precipitation will changeover to rain. Use extra care
when traveling this morning and be prepared for slippery spots on
roadways.

Today, 12/12 , mostly sunny less wind and not as cold.

Sunday mostly cloudy with rain showers by afternoon, possible snow showers at the very start of the precip.

Monday sunny and milder.

Tuesday,mild, rain showers, then turning colder, snow showers late.

Wed.-Friday mostly sunny and cold.

Saturday 12/19, Cold chance of light snow.

Sunday, clearing and cold.

Future outlook: there are some signs that a high pressure dome will build over Greenland which could produce snowy weather here eventually, a week or more from now.

GFS IS AT IT AGAIN. It is a little like looking at a catalog of gifts that you can't buy.
Christmas Clipper, I hope it's real. Today's weather below.

It is 3 AM snow mania here, at the Weather Balloon.

See local weather below. Snow totals in inches.

Bergen County
Paramus 2.0
Ridgewood 2.0
Midland Park 1.0

Essex County
Cedar Grove 1.8
West Orange 0.8

Passaic County
West Milford 6.5
Ringwood 6.0
Clifton 0.5

ACCUMULATING SNOW,ICE IN NEW JERSEY HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT!

Is our winter about to turn on a dime?

Up to 3 to 5 inches possible before changeover to plain rain Wednesday. Starting time around midnight.

Wednesday will be windy and rainy especially earlier in the day. After that colder weather and breezy.

Saturday night into Sunday a little snow is possible with the bulk of it in the southern portions of New Jersey. This should be watched closely , in case it moves further north as did the last storm, last Saturday.

A substantial snowpack is building to our North and West and will impact our weather in the days ahead.

PM update: Forecasters back off a bit on snow totals. Ultimately, we just have to wait and see what happens.

2:30 AM update: Snow! How long will it last?

Thanks to Henry at ACCUWEATHER.COM:

The GFS weather forecast model once again, shows a BIG snow hitting us on or about Dec. 16- 17th. That is the storm that could change everything.

Will it be a hit or a miss? I can't help dreaming of a White Christmas.

And there is even another storm 4 days later! It doesn't get any more wintry than that!

Whoah! Do not forget that many long range storm forecasts turn out to be only " paper blizzards."

Debate continues on how this winter will shape up. Cold or warm?

Accuweather long range meteorologist Joe Bastardi is still looking for a cold and snowy period from mid-December through New Years. The November trend we saw disagrees with his view. The computer models are fluctuating in their predictions. So it is anyone's guess as to how it will actually play out.

For certain, this week will feature a major snowstorm across the mid-west and plains states. There will be plenty of cold air and lake effect snow in the wake of the snowstorm.

New Jersey is in for a good rain which may start as snow late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, especially in the highlands. The end of the week will be cold but will it last? We have a fair shot at some snow, this weekend.

FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST is below. The November trend indicates a mostly mild and wet winter. ........read on......

Active winter weather pattern will continue with a windy and wet Wednesday

The mid-west and upper plains states will see near blizzard conditions from the storm during the middle of this workweek.

Here in New Jersey, we should expect a soaking rain and windy weather on Wednesday. The forecast is for cold weather to continue afterward.

Snow comes in heavier than anticipated.

Snowfall totals in inches.

Bergen County...
Lyndhurst, 0.8 1030 PM 12/5
Ridgewood, 0.7 900 PM 12/5
Midland Park, 0.5 800 am 12/6
North Arlington, 0.5 800 PM 12/5

Morris County...
Marcella, 5.0 715 PM 12/5
Randolph, 4.5 730 PM 12/5
Rockaway, 1.0 430 PM 12/5
Whippany, 0.5 430 PM 12/5

Passaic County

Ringwood, 5.0. 900 PM 12/5
West Milford, 7.0. 815 PM 12/5
Hewitt, 3. 530 PM 12/5

Only a few days ago, snow seemed a distant dream. Most areas received at least a coating by 9 PM. This week, Wednesday looks like the wet day. The precip. could begin Tuesday evening as a rain and snow mix.

The week after, a major storm is possible Dec. 17th to Dec. 20th. Certainly, this is not a sure thing.

We Have Lots of Weather Coming At Us for The Next Two Weeks!

End- of- the- world Nor'easter Dec. 18-20. Do you believe it?

A little snow likely in NJ Saturday, especially at evening time.

This is not a big snow but it may present a nuisance at night. Not much snow will be sticking.

Most likely, there will be rain during the day then mixing with and changing to snow with maybe an inch on the colder surfaces. The high lands might see 1 to as much as 3 inches.

Chicago Blizzard next Wednesday?

A week away, but it might happen. Two computer models show the same thing, when that happens you better watch out! Our whacky winter weather is about to begin. Get ready Missouri,Illinois,Michigan and Northern Indiana.

Could it be the end of the world as the people of Chicago know it? Nah!!!

Some snow possible Sat. night and another stormy Wed.& Thurs. next week.

Enjoy the warmth today as we will chill down tonight and this weekend. No big storm Saturday but we could see our first snowflakes. Cape May should see the most of it. Any snow will have a hard time sticking since the soil is quite warm.

Next week, there could be almost a repeat performance on the weather we had Wednesday and Thursday. Rain for us and snow way to our West. Watch out Chicago and Cleveland!

Until then, get your warm coat ready for tomorrow.

FEARLESS Winter Forecast below.

Siberia Update

Ojmjakon,Russia, -60 below zero

Beautiful Dec. 1st will be followed by stormy Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

A storm moving up from the Gulf states to the Great Lakes will make a stormy night tomorrow. Mild air will return briefly then a cold trend sets in by the weekend. There is even a chance of snow showers on Saturday.


SOME PRACTICAL INDICATORS OF A MILD WINTER AHEAD.

There is no snow pack in the Northern tier of states nor even well into Canada. There has been no Lake effect snow in areas such as Buffalo, Rochester and Cleveland.

No Vermont ski areas have been able to open yet. It has been too warm for the snow machines to operate .Skiers may have to deal with a Brown Christmas for the first time in years. Stowe, Vermont ski area will open Dec. 5th. it was just announced.

A Thanksgiving survey of the local ponds shows no ice present. Contrast that to a hard winter such as 1976-77 when they were all frozen by Thanksgiving.

No snow cover means cold spells will be short lived.

After a hard freeze on Nov. 6th , mild weather caused some spring bulbs to send up shoots.

THE FEARLESS WINTER FORECAST IS BELOW, read on.


SIBERIA UPDATE

Ojmjakon, Russsia - 59 below zero