Monday, December 31, 2012
Cold for this week but then a milding trend in the East, for January
After watching DT from Wxrisk .com, it looks like we will develop another mild spell. Do your skiing now.
The cold will hold until about January 8th. About the 12th, expect rain.
The cold will hold until about January 8th. About the 12th, expect rain.
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Snow totals for New York / New Jersey Metro
Connecticut
... Fairfield County...
Bridgeport 0.8 100 PM 12/29 coop observer
... New Haven County...
New Haven 1.8 439 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Wallingford 0.8 356 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... New London County...
Ledyard Center 1.0 437 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
New Jersey
... Bergen County...
Ridgewood 2.1 401 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Rivervale 2.0 439 PM 12/29 public
... Essex County...
Cedar Grove 2.7 438 PM 12/29 public
Millburn 2.0 200 PM 12/29 public
West Orange 1.7 200 PM 12/29 public
Newark Airport 1.1 430 PM 12/29 FAA contract observer
... Hudson County...
Harrison 1.0 253 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Passaic County...
Haskell 3.0 408 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Ringwood 2.4 415 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Union County...
Union 1.5 253 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Elizabeth 1.4 200 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
New York
... New York County...
Central Park T 100 PM 12/29 Central Park Zoo
... Orange County...
Middletown 4.1 440 PM 12/29 public
Greenville 3.5 355 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
south Blooming Grove 1.3 236 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Queens County...
NYC/La Guardia 0.1 430 PM 12/29 FAA contract observer
NYC/JFK Airport T 430 PM 12/29 FAA contract observer
... Rockland County...
New City 1.4 401 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
Congers 0.8 200 PM 12/29 Skywarn spotter
... Westchester County...
Somers 1.0 120 PM 12/29 public
NY NJ PA WEATHER .com Comment from Steve D.
Good chance that we will EXCEED snowfall forecast> None of the models predicted this to happen.
Latest NAM shows Northeast NJ in the 4 to 7" snow zone.
You just wait and watch to see what we get. The snow is light to moderate in many areas.
Looks like New Jersey is in the dry slot. That means less snow. @ 6 AM.
This could be temporary until the low hits the coastline and intensifies. Radar will show by late morning if the snow will really get going or not.
The dark patch over AL,GA.NC,VA,MD is dry air headed toward NJ. The white patch over SC,NC VA coastline is the developing storm. Which will affect NJ today? So far, looks like the 2 disturbances are not joining or phasing.
Friday, December 28, 2012
Light to Moderate Snowfall Saturday , ONSET 7am to 10 am in Northern New Jersey, New York City Metro. Active weather pattern continues with colder conditions as the New Year approaches.
Mostly a 2 to 4 inch snow is likely. There have been some indications , that the weather system will phase a little sooner than thought earlier. If so, accumulations could be higher. ( 4 to 6" ) The scientific method employed for this forecast was that I looked at the map with the most snow on it, and wrote that into this blog. The NAM is snowier at this the 12Z run.
A January 2,3 snow is possible according to DT at Wxrisk .com and on Facebook. There is no sign of it, at this time on the GFS or Euro.
I take that back, GFS adds another 4" snow on top of what we have, about Jan. 2nd. Hooray!
A January 2,3 snow is possible according to DT at Wxrisk .com and on Facebook. There is no sign of it, at this time on the GFS or Euro.
I take that back, GFS adds another 4" snow on top of what we have, about Jan. 2nd. Hooray!
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Storm throws a hard punch in Northern New Jersey!
Starting between 2 and 3 pm, the snow very quickly began falling at a heavy pace. Roadways were quickly coated and hazardous and as is usual, it was hard to find a salt truck. It struck just as rush hour was beginning. Heavy snow and wind produced conditions reminiscent of past blizzards. A quick one inch coating was put down before sleet began mixing in around 4 pm. Temperatures hovered near 30 degrees, but were expected to rise after nightfall.
A 2-3" accumulation was common, up to 6" in NW Jersey. A foot or more in Ski Country up North.
A 2-3" accumulation was common, up to 6" in NW Jersey. A foot or more in Ski Country up North.
Monday, December 24, 2012
December 26, 27th, storm, ONSET for North Jersey about noon to 2 pm. Wednesday.
PS: It would not be a good idea to be on the road when this starts. Even though forecasts call for rain; ... ice or snow at the onset is possible. Exactly where you are in New Jersey/ New York Metro will be critical as to what weather to expect on Wednesday.
Wednesday, Caldwell, NJ. Forecast:
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with ice pellets and rain. High of 39F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80% .
Late update: NAM shows a big influx of warm air, if the other models follow through , the snow / ice threat is over. We shall see.
Awaiting our Christmas snow in Northern NJ
26th, 27th storm will be mostly snow only in north and west NJ. New Years storm still possible.
Early afternoon updated model run.
0Z Euro showed 8". Nah.
1 to 3 inches still looks like the best bet. Especially from Rte. 287 and Northwest. Flakes will be flying most places tonight.
7 pm: snowing in Edison, Scotch Plains, Basking Ridge, Carteret, Jersey City, New Brunswick, Rutherford, Andover, Freehold, Wayne.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Early afternoon updated model run.
0Z Euro showed 8". Nah.
1 to 3 inches still looks like the best bet. Especially from Rte. 287 and Northwest. Flakes will be flying most places tonight.
7 pm: snowing in Edison, Scotch Plains, Basking Ridge, Carteret, Jersey City, New Brunswick, Rutherford, Andover, Freehold, Wayne.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
Sunday, December 23, 2012
A White Christmas? Yes for many.
Although only 1 to 3 inches in most places , and rain mixing in, there will be snowflakes falling. Starting Xmas Eve (7pm- 9pm) and ending early on Christmas day, before dawn.
Dec. 26&27: Snow at the start mixing with sleet, freezing rain and rain. Changing back to snow before ending Thursday. Some accumulation.
New Years: Some snow possible, turning quite cold, then, more snow possible a few days after.
New York City will see mostly rain the first two storms. New Jersey will see the most snow North and West. The usual in these iffy situations.
4 to 8 inches North and West and less as you go south and east. NYC, wet streets.
Update Sunday pm: most areas on the 26th will see mostly rain.
Dec. 26&27: Snow at the start mixing with sleet, freezing rain and rain. Changing back to snow before ending Thursday. Some accumulation.
New Years: Some snow possible, turning quite cold, then, more snow possible a few days after.
New York City will see mostly rain the first two storms. New Jersey will see the most snow North and West. The usual in these iffy situations.
4 to 8 inches North and West and less as you go south and east. NYC, wet streets.
Update Sunday pm: most areas on the 26th will see mostly rain.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Friday, December 21, 2012
It Could be a White Christmas After All
It Could be a White Christmas After All
Hang your stockings and say your prayers, because Santa Claus is coming to town.
Hang your stockings and say your prayers, because Santa Claus is coming to town.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Madison, Wisconsin, storm report.
A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until midnight CST tonight.
* Timing... heavy snow will continue to fall through the early
evening and gradually diminish from west to east overnight.
Blustery northwest winds will reduce visibility through midnight.
* Snow accumulations... 4 to 7 inches of snowfall from noon through
early evening... with greatest amounts in Madison... Fond Du Lac
and Janesville. Storm total snow amounts will be 12 to 20
inches. Thundersnow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may
briefly occur.
* Winds... north 20 to 30 mph becoming northwest with gusts of 40
to 50 mph through early evening.
* Impacts... travel difficult or impossible through this evening.
Significant blowing and drifting snow and potential for near
zero visibility... whiteouts... and blizzard conditions this
afternoon and evening.
* Timing... heavy snow will continue to fall through the early
evening and gradually diminish from west to east overnight.
Blustery northwest winds will reduce visibility through midnight.
* Snow accumulations... 4 to 7 inches of snowfall from noon through
early evening... with greatest amounts in Madison... Fond Du Lac
and Janesville. Storm total snow amounts will be 12 to 20
inches. Thundersnow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may
briefly occur.
* Winds... north 20 to 30 mph becoming northwest with gusts of 40
to 50 mph through early evening.
* Impacts... travel difficult or impossible through this evening.
Significant blowing and drifting snow and potential for near
zero visibility... whiteouts... and blizzard conditions this
afternoon and evening.
Rain and wind tonight
There will be a good drenching rain and strong winds tonight, it tapers off tomorrow turning colder, maybe some snow showers late in the day or evening.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
My own forecast for Dec. 27th, taken verbatim from 0z GFS
Snow / sleet begins before dawn Thursday, continues during the day, possibly mixing with freezing rain or rain in the afternoon, changing back to snow, ending overnight Thursday into Friday.
Northern sections will see the most frozen precip.
Central and southern Jersey the most rain.
All areas will change over back to snow before the storm ends.
Moderate accumulations.
Northern sections will see the most frozen precip.
Central and southern Jersey the most rain.
All areas will change over back to snow before the storm ends.
Moderate accumulations.
Privatize the Weather Service? Oh, really?
Our Big Government funds the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, HPC and NOAA and many other agencies. Everyday, they provide weather data, forecasts, satellite images, computer model forecast maps, climatological data and many other services, around the clock. From Alaska to Hawaii to Los Angeles to Houston to Boston.
It is all FREE. Anyone can use it and many do, for their own business.
Do you know any corporation that is willing and able to do the same?
It is all FREE. Anyone can use it and many do, for their own business.
Do you know any corporation that is willing and able to do the same?
A Parade of storms are coming our way, possibly turning colder.
The forecast goes something like this: one storm after another , one every few days, bringing, snow, rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, rain snow and rain. Got it? 12/ 27 is still a possible snow maker. And even another rain/ snow maker on or before Christmas.
The weather men will be very busy the next 2 weeks. The forecasts will change often. Enjoy the sunny mild weather now.
Stratospheric warming in the the Arctic, indicates that cold air is building in Canada and may work toward New Jersey / New York City and affect our weather forecast, eventually.
In the 2 weeks ahead the most likely snowy and icy weather will be inland with elevation. New England ski mountains should pick up repeated new snow. In fact, the snow will be the wet sticky variety which is good for sticking to the slopes to form a good base. But there may also be periods of ice and rain as well, until much colder air may or may not, move in.
Lake Effect snow areas will get a lot of snow beginning Friday and Saturday. It all depends on if we stay with the Great Lakes storm track or switch to the coastal low storm track. It is all up in the air as they say.
THE WORD IS STORMY. Most often it will start as snow, transition to ice and end as rain, before turning briefly back to snow. A mess.
Thanks to DT,@ Wxrisk.com, Elliot Abrams @ Accuweather, Steve DiMartino @ NYNJPA WEATHER .com.and the National Weather Service for providing most of the data and maps.
The weather men will be very busy the next 2 weeks. The forecasts will change often. Enjoy the sunny mild weather now.
Stratospheric warming in the the Arctic, indicates that cold air is building in Canada and may work toward New Jersey / New York City and affect our weather forecast, eventually.
In the 2 weeks ahead the most likely snowy and icy weather will be inland with elevation. New England ski mountains should pick up repeated new snow. In fact, the snow will be the wet sticky variety which is good for sticking to the slopes to form a good base. But there may also be periods of ice and rain as well, until much colder air may or may not, move in.
Lake Effect snow areas will get a lot of snow beginning Friday and Saturday. It all depends on if we stay with the Great Lakes storm track or switch to the coastal low storm track. It is all up in the air as they say.
THE WORD IS STORMY. Most often it will start as snow, transition to ice and end as rain, before turning briefly back to snow. A mess.
Thanks to DT,@ Wxrisk.com, Elliot Abrams @ Accuweather, Steve DiMartino @ NYNJPA WEATHER .com.and the National Weather Service for providing most of the data and maps.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
click here ^
One map for Dec. 27th, showing a snowstorm for the East Coast.
click here ^
From HPC, map for Christmas day.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg
Now what is that low over Louisiana up to? Nobody knows. Yet. Thanks Fred Pickhardt.
I think that we may have a better chance for a snowstorm shortly after the New Year.
I think that we may have a better chance for a snowstorm shortly after the New Year.
Monday, December 17, 2012
About Dec. 26th, will be a day to watch for New Jersey / New York Metro Weather.
There are signs of a snow and ICE storm setting up at about that time. At 10 days away, it is very far out in time to know if it will occur. An unusual blocking pattern may set up causing a pretty good sized winter storm, with ice featured, especially over more southern areas.
Thanks to DT at Wxrisk on Facebook and the web.
Thanks to DT at Wxrisk on Facebook and the web.
Winter Starts Friday and Weather Will Match - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Winter Starts Friday and Weather Will Match - Northeast U.S. Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Click above link for video and story. ^
You want snow? Go North young man, go north!
Take a L@@K at STOWE, VERMONT! >>>>>>>>>>>
Click above link for video and story. ^
You want snow? Go North young man, go north!
Take a L@@K at STOWE, VERMONT! >>>>>>>>>>>
Snowstorms Focus on Northern New England This Week
Snowstorms Focus on Northern New England This Week
Click above link to Accuweather story and video. ^
Click above link to Accuweather story and video. ^
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Looking at the 0Z Euro maps and all I can say is that this winter is busted until further notice.
I just read on one of the forums that December 2012, so far, is one of the warmest on record. There is no real arctic air in reach, even though the models keep calling for it a week from now. The cold air, so far, refuses to actually show up on cue. Mother nature sometimes refuses to do as the models expect.
Take a look at Stowe, Vt. on the right >>>>>>>
Take a look at Stowe, Vt. on the right >>>>>>>
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Christmas forecast map, really cold IF it verifies. From Wxrisk.com on Facebook and Allen Huffman's web page.
Stormy, Snowy Weather May Bring Holiday Travel Delays
Stormy, Snowy Weather May Bring Holiday Travel Delays
Check out the details from Accuweather. Click above for text and video.
Check out the details from Accuweather. Click above for text and video.
BIG changes coming by the end of next week to New Jersey / New York City Metro.
The Euro is in and seems to have made up it's mind. We will begin with rain from Sunday, the 16th. into Tuesday, the 18th. There may be some snow in the coldest places.
The storm at the end of the week will bring rain at first, possibly changing to snow. Next Saturday Dec. 22 will be cold and windy with snow or snow showers possible.
There will be dramatically colder and windy conditions a week from today, right up to Christmas.
DT at Wxrisk.com and on Facebook still thinks a day after Christmas snowstorm may be coming our way.
What seems certain is that it will be a colder and windy weather pattern as we near Christmas. And the plains and Mid West will get a full on Blizzard by the end of this coming week.
Keep in mind, as I said before, that the cold air has to actually show up, live and in person, next weekend. Let's see what happens.
Full on Blizzard for next Thursday, look out Iowa and Wisconsin.
The storm at the end of the week will bring rain at first, possibly changing to snow. Next Saturday Dec. 22 will be cold and windy with snow or snow showers possible.
There will be dramatically colder and windy conditions a week from today, right up to Christmas.
DT at Wxrisk.com and on Facebook still thinks a day after Christmas snowstorm may be coming our way.
What seems certain is that it will be a colder and windy weather pattern as we near Christmas. And the plains and Mid West will get a full on Blizzard by the end of this coming week.
Keep in mind, as I said before, that the cold air has to actually show up, live and in person, next weekend. Let's see what happens.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Today is Friday, Dec. 14th, here is the Christmas forecast, as of now.
Christmas Eve: cold, breezy, chance of flurries
Christmas Day: cold, breezy, chance of flurries
Between now and Dec. 25, there will be several storms which will bring northern NJ, mostly rain and maybe some snow.
Skiers from Pennsylvania to New England may be treated to two snowfalls.
This particular weather pattern brings in much uncertainty to the next 12 days. There is a chance of a major snowfall right after Christmas. DT at Wxrisk.com thinks so.
Christmas Day: cold, breezy, chance of flurries
Between now and Dec. 25, there will be several storms which will bring northern NJ, mostly rain and maybe some snow.
Skiers from Pennsylvania to New England may be treated to two snowfalls.
This particular weather pattern brings in much uncertainty to the next 12 days. There is a chance of a major snowfall right after Christmas. DT at Wxrisk.com thinks so.
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
Holiday Travel Weather - Weather Video - AccuWeather.com
( click above for video ) Excellent video from Accuweather!!!
( click above for video ) Excellent video from Accuweather!!!
Thursday, December 13, 2012
The afternoon 12Z ECMWF is coming in.
Still looks like rain for NJ next week but upstate NY and New England get a decent snowfall.
After that it looks like colder air will filter in all the way to Christmas. The models, even the Euro, have not been doing so well in December, so I would not count on this trend. But the rain next week looks pretty certain, no snow, for New Jersey, New York Metro.
After that it looks like colder air will filter in all the way to Christmas. The models, even the Euro, have not been doing so well in December, so I would not count on this trend. But the rain next week looks pretty certain, no snow, for New Jersey, New York Metro.
The 3 Day Rule on Snowstorms
It takes about 3 days for a weather system to travel across the USA. So anything more than 3 days in the future is still out over the Pacific Ocean, for example. In the ocean and also in Arctic regions, the observation stations are much fewer and the data is not plentiful. These uncertainties more than 3 days ahead make forcasting the weather more difficult.
Since snow is always an iffy thing in New Jersey, you really can't trust a forecast for snow more than 3 days ahead.
At this time, the large scale weather pattern does not favor snow, as pointed out by DT at Wxrisk and Elliot Abrams at Accuweather, as well as others.
A full blown snowstorm still is not likely the early part of next week for the reasons given above. We have to wait another day or two for the storm next week to come into better focus. So I am not betting on snow next week.
Keep in touch.
Since snow is always an iffy thing in New Jersey, you really can't trust a forecast for snow more than 3 days ahead.
At this time, the large scale weather pattern does not favor snow, as pointed out by DT at Wxrisk and Elliot Abrams at Accuweather, as well as others.
A full blown snowstorm still is not likely the early part of next week for the reasons given above. We have to wait another day or two for the storm next week to come into better focus. So I am not betting on snow next week.
Keep in touch.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Rain Sunday and more again later next week.
A lack of cold air will most likely prevent snow falling in the next two weather systems. Although some of the models are indicating snow now, as we get closer to next week, it should become clear that, if there might be some snow mixing in next week, it would happen as the storm is ending. As usual the far inland locations, with elevation, would have the best chance for getting any frozen precip.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
ACCUWEATHER: Snowy, Colder Pattern for U.S. Leading up to Christmas
Snowy, Colder Pattern for U.S. Leading up to Christmas
( click above)
Just when I had all but given up on snow in December! Things could be changing. DT at Wxrisk still sees no snow for NJ. Wait and see how this develops for Dec. 18,19.
( click above)
Just when I had all but given up on snow in December! Things could be changing. DT at Wxrisk still sees no snow for NJ. Wait and see how this develops for Dec. 18,19.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Updated Winter Forecast Model is Stormier in the East - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Updated Winter Forecast Model is Stormier in the East - Canadian Weather Blog - AccuWeather.com
Weather model predicts normal temps and moist conditions for January through March.
Weather model predicts normal temps and moist conditions for January through March.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
December looks to end the year on a mild trend and will complete the warmest year in US history if all goes as expected.
The next storms occur tomorrow, Dec. 15, and Dec. 18th. There is little prospect for snow. We may return to seasonal temperatures but no bitter cold weather is foreseeable.
The weather models have been forecasting a shift to colder but so far, it is not showing up. Just seasonably cold in between very mild spells.
The storm track continues to be focused on the Great Lakes region. DT at Wxrisk.com does not see winter taking hold just yet, maybe January.
Christmas Eve forecast is for cloudy conditions and seasonably cold. About the same Christmas Day.
No White Christmas is seen at this time.
The weather models have been forecasting a shift to colder but so far, it is not showing up. Just seasonably cold in between very mild spells.
The storm track continues to be focused on the Great Lakes region. DT at Wxrisk.com does not see winter taking hold just yet, maybe January.
Christmas Eve forecast is for cloudy conditions and seasonably cold. About the same Christmas Day.
No White Christmas is seen at this time.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Monday, December 3, 2012
Not a good start if you like cold and snowy.
December is the start of the winter season and with 60 degree temps, this is not winter. There is still talk of a big shift in the pattern about Dec. 15th. We shall see, otherwise it is starting out as a mild winter. My old rule of thumb has been that if we see snow early on, then the winter later on will not be snowy. We had snow right after the hurricane, and that WAS early!
Christmas Eve forecast from Accuweather: Rain showers 46 degrees. Oh, Boo!
Christmas Eve forecast from Accuweather: Rain showers 46 degrees. Oh, Boo!
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Euro predicts snow for Dec. 10th.
For what it is worth, 6 to 12 inches on the latest map. From Henry Margusity at Accuweather.com.
A major cold outbreak may occur about Dec. 15th.
The Euro has not been performing well recently so , forget the snow unless you live in Minnesota. ( 12/4 update )
DT at Wxrisk.com correctly said the snow was not headed for the East Coast.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Snow totals
Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
/inches/ measurement
New Jersey
... Gloucester County...
National Park T 700 am 11/27 trained spotter
... Hunterdon County...
Whitehouse 2.8 300 PM 11/27 broadcast media
Flemington 2.1 615 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Readington TWP 1.5 530 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Mercer County...
Hopewell 2.0 300 PM 11/27 public
Ewing 0.3 1138 am 11/27 trained spotter
... Middlesex County...
Metuchen 1.0 1200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Morris County...
Chester 5.0 400 PM 11/27 900 feet elevation.
Lake Hopatcong 5.0 400 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Jefferson TWP 4.4 355 PM 11/27 public
Butler 4.0 200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Milton 4.0 430 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Rockaway TWP 3.5 300 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Randolph TWP 3.0 100 PM 11/27 public
Whippany 2.7 555 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Somerset County...
2 S Neshanic 4.0 455 PM 11/27 Sourland Mountain
Belle Mead 3.0 400 PM 11/27 public
Skillman 1.8 110 PM 11/27 public
Bridgewater TWP 1.1 400 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Somerville 1.0 500 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Sussex County...
Wantage 4.0 200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Lafayette 3.5 135 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Fredon 3.3 125 PM 11/27 public
... Warren County...
Allamuchy TWP 3.5 235 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Stewartsville 2.6 200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Washington 2.1 250 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Hackettstown 1.5 320 PM 11/27 trained spotter
supplied by weatherunderground
snowfall of
/inches/ measurement
New Jersey
... Gloucester County...
National Park T 700 am 11/27 trained spotter
... Hunterdon County...
Whitehouse 2.8 300 PM 11/27 broadcast media
Flemington 2.1 615 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Readington TWP 1.5 530 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Mercer County...
Hopewell 2.0 300 PM 11/27 public
Ewing 0.3 1138 am 11/27 trained spotter
... Middlesex County...
Metuchen 1.0 1200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Morris County...
Chester 5.0 400 PM 11/27 900 feet elevation.
Lake Hopatcong 5.0 400 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Jefferson TWP 4.4 355 PM 11/27 public
Butler 4.0 200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Milton 4.0 430 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Rockaway TWP 3.5 300 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Randolph TWP 3.0 100 PM 11/27 public
Whippany 2.7 555 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Somerset County...
2 S Neshanic 4.0 455 PM 11/27 Sourland Mountain
Belle Mead 3.0 400 PM 11/27 public
Skillman 1.8 110 PM 11/27 public
Bridgewater TWP 1.1 400 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Somerville 1.0 500 PM 11/27 trained spotter
... Sussex County...
Wantage 4.0 200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Lafayette 3.5 135 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Fredon 3.3 125 PM 11/27 public
... Warren County...
Allamuchy TWP 3.5 235 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Stewartsville 2.6 200 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Washington 2.1 250 PM 11/27 trained spotter
Hackettstown 1.5 320 PM 11/27 trained spotter
supplied by weatherunderground
Looking ahead to the first week of December: Mild temps.
The omega block in the Bering Sea will steer cold air away from the Eastern US, for the next 12 days.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Some signs of a change to colder later in December.
According to Dt at Wxrisk.com the beginning of December will not feature cold temperatures but that may change later in the month. He expects the latter part of December , then January and February to be the period of wintry weather for us. A huge omega block in the Bering Sea between Alaska and Siberia is helping to steer the coldest air away from the East Coast.
Sunday, November 25, 2012
A snow/ rain mix over most areas in Northern NJ, on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Forecasters have backed off a bit on a snowstorm this week. The most likely outcome seems to be, snow starting early Tuesday morning, mixing with then changing to rain, over most areas and once again, mixing with then changing to snow again, in the evening. Most places will see minor accumulations , but north and west of Rte. 287 several inches of snow may accumulate.
The confidence in the forecast is low, but a heavy snowfall is unlikely at this time. As is usually the case, Upper Passaic and Sussex counties will see the most snow.
About 2 or 3 inches looks like the maximum according to Elliot Abrams at Accuweather. Check tomorrow first thing in the morning in case there are any last minute surprises.
There is a big debate on the December outlook, but I am betting on early December being somewhat mild. After that things may change. There is ample cold air over Canada this year and the question is when or if it will move down into the eastern US. Last winter was a different story.
Almost all forecasters expect an above normal snow season this winter. This winter has a lot of potential for being a snowmaker. IF.......
DT at WxRisk.com is calling for a winter with a mild start then, turning wild later. He specializes in long range forecasting and has a good track record, but nobody is perfect.
The confidence in the forecast is low, but a heavy snowfall is unlikely at this time. As is usually the case, Upper Passaic and Sussex counties will see the most snow.
About 2 or 3 inches looks like the maximum according to Elliot Abrams at Accuweather. Check tomorrow first thing in the morning in case there are any last minute surprises.
There is a big debate on the December outlook, but I am betting on early December being somewhat mild. After that things may change. There is ample cold air over Canada this year and the question is when or if it will move down into the eastern US. Last winter was a different story.
Almost all forecasters expect an above normal snow season this winter. This winter has a lot of potential for being a snowmaker. IF.......
DT at WxRisk.com is calling for a winter with a mild start then, turning wild later. He specializes in long range forecasting and has a good track record, but nobody is perfect.
Friday, November 23, 2012
Friday afternoon computer models looking colder and snowier for Tuesday into Wdenesday. Not a huge storm, but worth watching.
NWS shows rain Tuesday turning to snow at night with up to 2 " possible by Wednesday.
The NWS says up to 8" possible in West Milford, NJ, for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The NWS says up to 8" possible in West Milford, NJ, for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Experts Wonder Why NJ TRANSIT Stored Trains In Flood-Prone Areas « CBS New York
click here:
Experts Wonder Why NJ TRANSIT Stored Trains In Flood-Prone Areas « CBS New York
Hurricane Sandy did more damage because of questionable decisions before the storm hit. I think very many people underestimated the impact of the storm. 60 locomotives damaged and 250 rail cars as well.
Experts Wonder Why NJ TRANSIT Stored Trains In Flood-Prone Areas « CBS New York
Hurricane Sandy did more damage because of questionable decisions before the storm hit. I think very many people underestimated the impact of the storm. 60 locomotives damaged and 250 rail cars as well.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Monday, November 12, 2012
3 Day Nor' easter may be shaping up for next week.
Very early now to get concerned now, but a moderately strong coastal storm, producing 4 inches of rain, strong on shore winds, may occur from Nov. 19,20, 21 next week.
The large scale pattern does not favor this storm but it needs to be watched. According to DT at Wxrisk.com the first week of December will be mild.
The large scale pattern does not favor this storm but it needs to be watched. According to DT at Wxrisk.com the first week of December will be mild.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Snow totals Wed. night.
The following are unofficial observations taken during the storm
that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to
Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters and
media for these reports. This summary is also available on our home
Page at weather.Gov/NYC
********************storm total snowfall********************
Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
/inches/ measurement
Connecticut
... Fairfield County...
Monroe 9.0 845 PM 11/07 public
Danbury 7.1 700 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Greenwich 6.0 845 PM 11/07 public
Darien 6.0 800 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Ridgefield 5.5 500 PM 11/07 public
North Stamford 5.2 940 PM 11/07 public
Norwalk 5.2 950 PM 11/07 public
Brookfield 5.0 510 PM 11/07 public
Bridgeport 4.0 700 PM 11/07 NWS coop
Stratford 3.5 519 PM 11/07 broadcast media
Redding 3.0 645 PM 11/07 amateur radio
... Middlesex County...
Middletown 5.0 707 PM 11/07 amateur radio
Durham 4.5 510 PM 11/07 broadcast media
Westbrook 1.7 700 PM 11/07 public
... New Haven County...
Wallingford 10.0 840 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Clintonville 9.5 839 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Hamden 9.0 845 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Seymour 9.0 830 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Meriden 8.9 925 PM 11/07 Skywarn spotter
Wolcott 7.0 900 PM 11/07 Skywarn spotter
Naugatuck 6.2 859 PM 11/07 public
North Haven 6.0 540 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Oxford 6.0 645 PM 11/07 amateur radio
Ansonia 5.5 752 PM 11/07 amateur radio
Branford 5.0 900 PM 11/07 public
New Haven 5.0 430 PM 11/07 public
Derby 4.0 418 PM 11/07 public
Guilford 3.0 515 PM 11/07 NWS employee
... New London County...
Voluntown 3.0 717 PM 11/07 amatuer radio
New Jersey
... Bergen County...
Ridgefield 8.0 840 PM 11/07 amateur radio
Ridgewood 4.4 900 PM 11/07 Skywarn spotter
Midland Park 2.8 845 PM 11/07 public
... Essex County...
Maplewood 2.5 655 PM 11/07 public
West Orange 2.2 630 PM 11/07 public
Newark Airport 2.1 700 PM 11/07 FAA contract observer
... Hudson County...
Harrison 3.7 915 PM 11/07 Skywarn spotter
Hoboken 2.4 830 PM 11/07 trained spotter
... Passaic County...
Haskell 3.5 800 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Wayne 3.0 718 PM 11/07 trained spotter
... Union County...
Berkeley Heights 7.5 945 PM 11/07 public
Elizabeth 2.8 815 PM 11/07 trained spotter
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Snow is assured, now how much?
Most of north Jersey will be in the 1 to 3 inch zone. High elevations could double that.
Monday, November 5, 2012
SNOWPOCALYPSE | Dodge AWD | Commercial
This is not a forecast but one computer model predicts 9 inches of snow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFLrN1-GZOg&feature=plcp
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Stormy Wednesday and Thursday according to Euro.
Maybe 1 to 3 inches rain, very windy, high storm tides, far inland, SNOW!
Saturday, November 3, 2012
NJ Transit slide show, hurricane Sandy.
http://www.flickr.com//photos/89454930@N07/sets/72157631895879101/show/
Click above.
Waiting room at Hoboken Terminal had 5 feet of water!
Click above.
Waiting room at Hoboken Terminal had 5 feet of water!
Here we go again next Wednesday and Thursday.
Far interior high elevations 4 to 6 inches +
Mostly wind and rain in most of NJ.
This is from the Euro only and it is a very early estimate only! Check NWS for the authoritative forecast.
Friday, November 2, 2012
Governor Christie subpoenas 65 businesses for hurricane price gouging.
http://www.state.nj.us/governor/news/news/552012/approved/20121102h.html
http://www.state.nj.us/governor/news/news/552012/approved/20121102h.html
http://www.state.nj.us/governor/news/news/552012/approved/20121102h.html
HESS GASOLINE FUEL AVAILABILITY
Visit www.hessexpress.com and use the store locator to search for the closest location to you.
Click here:
http://www.hessexpress.com/
***IMPORTANT****
It's best to visit locations that are reporting over 5,000 gallons of inventory in stock at this latest time.
Site #
State
Market
City
Street Address
Fuel Grades Available (# of gallons):
Regular Plus Premium Diesel
*****************************
Click here:
http://www.hessexpress.com/
***IMPORTANT****
It's best to visit locations that are reporting over 5,000 gallons of inventory in stock at this latest time.
Site #
State
Market
City
Street Address
Fuel Grades Available (# of gallons):
Regular Plus Premium Diesel
*****************************
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Both the Euro and the GFS show a Nor'easter next Wednesday, right after the election.
Not an extraordinary storm but it could bring substantial rain/snow next week. Long wave patterns predicted this sometime ago. But, then along came Sandy, as we all know.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Monday, October 29, 2012
Major flood now in progress at Tuckerton, NJ
Over 8 feet above MLW at Little Egg inlet.
Ocean City flooded from sea to the bay.
LBI much flooding
Atlantic City serious flooding. morning 10/29
Ocean City flooded from sea to the bay.
LBI much flooding
Atlantic City serious flooding. morning 10/29
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Coastal Flood Estimates as of 7:45 pm. Revised upward.
... NY Harbor water levels for Monday evening...
Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ..
Location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ..
The Battery NYC... ..813 PM... ... ... 11.7... ... ... ... .Major... .
Bergen Point NY... ..814 PM... ... ... 12.3... ... ... ... .Major... .
... Western l.I. Sound water levels for Monday night...
Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ..
Location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ..
Kings Point NY... ... 1227 am... ... ..16.6... ... ... ... .Major... .
Lattingtown NY... ... 1205 am... ... ..16.7... ... ... ... .Major... .
Stamford CT... ... ... 1201 am... ... ..16.4... ... ... ... .Major... .
Bridgeport CT... ... .1158 PM... ... ..15.9... ... ... ... .Major... .
New Haven CT... ... ..1157 PM... ... ..15.3... ... ... ... .Major... .
Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ..
Location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ..
The Battery NYC... ..813 PM... ... ... 11.7... ... ... ... .Major... .
Bergen Point NY... ..814 PM... ... ... 12.3... ... ... ... .Major... .
... Western l.I. Sound water levels for Monday night...
Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ..
Location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ..
Kings Point NY... ... 1227 am... ... ..16.6... ... ... ... .Major... .
Lattingtown NY... ... 1205 am... ... ..16.7... ... ... ... .Major... .
Stamford CT... ... ... 1201 am... ... ..16.4... ... ... ... .Major... .
Bridgeport CT... ... .1158 PM... ... ..15.9... ... ... ... .Major... .
New Haven CT... ... ..1157 PM... ... ..15.3... ... ... ... .Major... .
National Weather Service , Mt. Holly, NJ Storm Sandy.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
* COASTAL FLOODING...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES. MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE AND WIDESPREAD
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
* HIGH SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET DRIVEN BY FREQUENT 50 TO 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOODING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY EVENING.
* A 4 TO 8 FEET STORM SURGE COINCIDING WITH THE MONDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A RECORD FLOOD AS MEASURED AT
SANDY HOOK...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN EVER RECORDED
SINCE STORM TIDE RECORDS BEGAN AROUND THE 1940S.
* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY)... THIS EVENINGS
HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 741 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5
TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE OCCURS AT 801 AM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 9.0 TO
9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE OCCURS AT 822 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF BETWEEN
10.5 AND 12.0 FEET...THIS LATTER PROJECTION SPECIFIC WITH THE
PATH OF SANDY CROSSING THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
* COASTAL FLOODING...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDES. MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE AND WIDESPREAD
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
* HIGH SURF OF 15 TO 20 FEET DRIVEN BY FREQUENT 50 TO 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOODING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY EVENING.
* A 4 TO 8 FEET STORM SURGE COINCIDING WITH THE MONDAY EVENING
HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A RECORD FLOOD AS MEASURED AT
SANDY HOOK...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 FEET HIGHER THAN EVER RECORDED
SINCE STORM TIDE RECORDS BEGAN AROUND THE 1940S.
* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY)... THIS EVENINGS
HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 741 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5
TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE OCCURS AT 801 AM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 9.0 TO
9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE OCCURS AT 822 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF BETWEEN
10.5 AND 12.0 FEET...THIS LATTER PROJECTION SPECIFIC WITH THE
PATH OF SANDY CROSSING THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE MONDAY EVENING.
Latest Flood estimate, Storm Surge at the Battery, New York, NY.
One model shows an 11 foot total surge. The other model is about 8 inches less. There is a 10% chance these figures will be exceeded. The first high tide is Monday morning, the second and larger tide is Monday evening. These heights would exceed the sea wall in the area of lower Manhattan. Subways will flood unless they are successfully sand bagged.
Some minor flooding could occur Sunday evening. The worst storm surge and winds will occur Monday night.
To view the Stevens Tech. report click the link colored in orange.
http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017r
From Weatherunderground:
Last night's 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 - 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy's storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina's, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.
Some minor flooding could occur Sunday evening. The worst storm surge and winds will occur Monday night.
To view the Stevens Tech. report click the link colored in orange.
http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017r
From Weatherunderground:
Last night's 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 - 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy's storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina's, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Flood Times Estimate for The Battery , New York City
Minor to moderate flooding at 9 am, 10/29, Monday.
Moderate flooding at 11pm, 10/29, Monday.
Winds 30 to 50 mph, max gusts to 70 mph. ( NWS estimate )
http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017
http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017 (click on orange words, to view)
Looks like 6 to 12" higher than Irene.
Moderate flooding at 11pm, 10/29, Monday.
Winds 30 to 50 mph, max gusts to 70 mph. ( NWS estimate )
http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017
http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017 (click on orange words, to view)
Looks like 6 to 12" higher than Irene.
Very Dangerous Sandy now 54 hours from Landfall.
NWS BRIEFING ON SANDY: no changes to previous brief, executive summary below this post.
Changes from previous briefing
• No significant changes from previous briefing package.
• Confidence continues to increase that our region will see very severe impacts from this storm.
Issued Friday, Oct. 26, 2012
Applies to New Jersey and Pennsylvania from Mount Holly Office, National Weather Service.
• No significant changes from previous briefing package.
• Confidence continues to increase that our region will see very severe impacts from this storm.
Issued Friday, Oct. 26, 2012
Friday, October 26, 2012
AccuWeather.com Election Coverage: Sandy May Pose Threat to East Coast Voters
AccuWeather.com Election Coverage: Sandy May Pose Threat to East Coast Voters
click on the orange words to read and view video.
LATEST from NOAA is that Northern NJ will be in the 6 to 8 inch rainfall zone!
click on the orange words to read and view video.
LATEST from NOAA is that Northern NJ will be in the 6 to 8 inch rainfall zone!
Euro for Fri. am brings Sandy into Chesapeake Bay area
Plenty of wind but less rain. Waves and tides in Delaware Bay, Cape May, will be very great. In north Jersey the amount of rain should be less but the winds will be strong especially close to the ocean. Tides and waves will be quite high.
Looks like Sandy will visit: Ocean City, MD , Pittsburgh, PA, Buffalo, NY, Montreal , Canada.
Looks like Sandy will visit: Ocean City, MD , Pittsburgh, PA, Buffalo, NY, Montreal , Canada.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
An old rule states that you do not know what these storms will do until you get the storm past Cape Hatteras.
It seems more likely than ever that the Jersey Shore is going to get the full force of the storm, whatever that proves out to be. But it will not be the kind of storm that destroys bridges, highways and entire buildings. Flooding is the main concern and all those beach homes along the Jersey Shore.
The best guess on Sandy is from the Euro, which has been bringing the storm into around Delaware for about 3 days , now tracks Sandy in on Monday afternoon. The GFS on the other hand, showed Maine yesterday and NYC area today. It still seems that the area from Seaside Hts. , NJ to Ocean City , MD is the area where it will land. The storm is growing large so even if you are far from the storm center you still get wind and rain. We can be sure that we still do not have a good focus on Sandy, yet.
THIS IS NOT ANOTHER IRENE!
Here is what happened overnight and this morning with Sandy. It was approaching Jamaica, it was expected to not yet be a hurricane or a minimal storm. It hit Jamaica with 90 mph winds.
Sandy was supposed to weaken while crossing Jamaica, but it did not. Next it would cross Cuba as a weak hurricane and be weakened before it got to the Bahamas. It did not.
Sandy weakened briefly but began to rebuild as soon as it hit the water on the other side of Cuba. Very impressive.
Sandy is now at Cat 2 hurricane, a strong one. Most thought it would only be a TS by now. Sandy has been full of surprises.
I notice that Nick Gregory highlighted the fact that the angle of attack of the storm will serve to push more tidewater into the Jersey Shore and NY Harbor.
Sandy was supposed to weaken while crossing Jamaica, but it did not. Next it would cross Cuba as a weak hurricane and be weakened before it got to the Bahamas. It did not.
Sandy weakened briefly but began to rebuild as soon as it hit the water on the other side of Cuba. Very impressive.
Sandy is now at Cat 2 hurricane, a strong one. Most thought it would only be a TS by now. Sandy has been full of surprises.
I notice that Nick Gregory highlighted the fact that the angle of attack of the storm will serve to push more tidewater into the Jersey Shore and NY Harbor.
NWS, Mt. Holly Briefig issued Thursday 10/25/12 :
• Sandy is currently a Category II hurricane.
• Its forecast track now poses a direct threat to our region.
• It is forecast to still have sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts as it approaches our region.
• This is a very dangerous scenario.
Mt. Holly, NWS, executive summary Thursday 10/25/12
Executive Summary
• Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy. This storm, if it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region:
• Strong damaging wind gusts • Extremely heavy rainfall • Major flooding along streams and rivers • Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29)
• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted. This far out in time, there is still some uncertainty with the storm track. However, the likelihood of the storm affecting our region has once again increased over the past 24 hours.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Friday, October 26th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.
• Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy. This storm, if it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region:
• Strong damaging wind gusts • Extremely heavy rainfall • Major flooding along streams and rivers • Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29)
• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted. This far out in time, there is still some uncertainty with the storm track. However, the likelihood of the storm affecting our region has once again increased over the past 24 hours.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Friday, October 26th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.
Mt. Holly, New briefing. Oct. 25, 2012 National Weather Service office.
Changes from previous briefing
• The likelihood of the storm affecting our region has once again increased over the past 24 hours.
• The potential for the storm to still retain tropical characteristics (e.g., extremely heavy rainfall rates, a core of very strong winds) when it reaches our region has increased over the past 24 hours.
• The likelihood of the storm affecting our region has once again increased over the past 24 hours.
• The potential for the storm to still retain tropical characteristics (e.g., extremely heavy rainfall rates, a core of very strong winds) when it reaches our region has increased over the past 24 hours.
Weather Buffs astounded by Hurricane Sandy
Sandy is stronger than forecast despite traveling over high terrain in eastern Cuba. The models continue to show a storm of strong intensity making landfall in the Northeast US. It is obviously a dangerous storm and will have a great impact from Sunday to Tuesday, next week.
Western PA may see 3 to 4 feet of snow. High winds on the COAST can be expected all the way to Montauk, Long Island.
It will take another day of data to sort out the exact impact that it will have.
The latest bulls eye is Delaware and Delaware Bay, Southeast New Jersey.
Western PA may see 3 to 4 feet of snow. High winds on the COAST can be expected all the way to Montauk, Long Island.
It will take another day of data to sort out the exact impact that it will have.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Mount Holly, NJ Weather Briefing Statment, official NWS
Executive Summary
• Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy. This storm, if it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region:
• Strong damaging wind gusts • Extremely heavy rainfall • Major flooding along streams and rivers • Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29)
• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted. out in time, there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track. However, the likelihood of the storm affecting our region has increased over the past 24 hours. • Next briefing package will be issued on Thursday, October 25th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.
This is the official statement above, from Mount Holly, NJ NWS
• Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy. This storm, if it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region:
• Strong damaging wind gusts • Extremely heavy rainfall • Major flooding along streams and rivers • Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29)
• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted. out in time, there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track. However, the likelihood of the storm affecting our region has increased over the past 24 hours. • Next briefing package will be issued on Thursday, October 25th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.
This is the official statement above, from Mount Holly, NJ NWS
Dr. No speaks: Sandy will hit NJ directly!
The best computer model we have is the Euro. Its' nickname is Dr. No.
It predicts landfall in New Jersey and moves to Eastern Pennsylvania afterward.
Undoubtedly this can change before next Monday. 7 am Monday, east of Virginia Beach, then 7am Tuesday, Eastern PA.
Landfall estimate, preliminary:
Cape May County, NJ, noon, Monday.
This is not official, only my best guess. It can and will change.
It predicts landfall in New Jersey and moves to Eastern Pennsylvania afterward.
Undoubtedly this can change before next Monday. 7 am Monday, east of Virginia Beach, then 7am Tuesday, Eastern PA.
Landfall estimate, preliminary:
Cape May County, NJ, noon, Monday.
This is not official, only my best guess. It can and will change.
Ground zero storm hits.
Here is a list of the landfall targets according to the many models: Delaware, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Maine. Take your pick.
I am waiting for the word from Dr. No, the best computer model , which is the EURO.
I am waiting for the word from Dr. No, the best computer model , which is the EURO.
Tropical storm could target N.J. - New York News | NYC Breaking News
Tropical storm could target N.J. - New York News | NYC Breaking News
Click on the orange words above to read the full report.
Click on the orange words above to read the full report.
Models showing a major storm starting late Sunday.
The map above is not a forecast. If this one model were to verify next week, it would put much of Cape May County underwater. No kidding. 72 knot winds, central pressure 27.4 inches mercury. Incredible. All of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York will be affected.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Let us wait until Thursday before we all run out for buying stuff.
If, on this Thursday afternoon, the maps still show a big storm, for next Tuesday morning, then I would go to the stores to stock up. Since the storm is moving rather slowly , I would not be willing to compare it to the famous 1938 hurricane. I expect a nasty storm with 3 to 6 inches of rain and power outages. Probably not a state of emergency situation. As I said , if the storm goes to the extreme, we will only get about a 1 day warning.
I do not see this as a hurricane. It should be a strong Nor'easter, which is enough trouble for anyone, especially with a full moon on the 29th.
Clearly this storm affects the immediate coast. Do not expect 60 mph winds if you are even a short distance inland. It is an ocean storm.
I do not see this as a hurricane. It should be a strong Nor'easter, which is enough trouble for anyone, especially with a full moon on the 29th.
Clearly this storm affects the immediate coast. Do not expect 60 mph winds if you are even a short distance inland. It is an ocean storm.
DT at Wxrisk.com and on Facebook sees the tri-state area being hit with the worst storm since 1938. Bad news if it plays out this way. I do not see this as anything like the 1938 storm.
And far inland there will be snow as well! Western NY and PA border area, yes that far in.
For once, I hope this is wrong. It is going to be very unpleasant, but not a disaster.
And far inland there will be snow as well! Western NY and PA border area, yes that far in.
For once, I hope this is wrong. It is going to be very unpleasant, but not a disaster.
I am waiting for the afternoon Euro model to roll in. About 3pm.
2:34 pm Euro brings in very strong storm this time, close to our coast.
2:38 pm Euro brings storm to Long Island then right over NYC.
So the Euro is insisting on a very strong storm impacting the Tri State area and New England as well.
2:34 pm Euro brings in very strong storm this time, close to our coast.
2:38 pm Euro brings storm to Long Island then right over NYC.
So the Euro is insisting on a very strong storm impacting the Tri State area and New England as well.
NWS, Mount Holly, New Jersey, weather service office, weather briefing statement.
Things to focus on about this storm
• A very large region will be affected by very strong winds.
• Reflecting its tropical beginnings, very heavy rainfall will occur with the storm.
• The storm will be slow moving. This worsens the impact for coastal flooding as it will affect multiple high tide cycles. This worsens the potential for heavy rainfall inland and increases the risk of major river flooding.
• The area affected will be determined by the track of the storm. There is still considerable uncertainty about the track of the storm, but our region is clearly at risk.Executive Summary
• Potential for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Tropical Storm Sandy. This storm system will bring multiple potential threats to the region.
• Strong damaging wind gusts, extremely heavy rainfall, major inland flooding and major coastal flooding are all possible with the storm. • The track of the storm will determine the area which is impacted; there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track this far in advance of the event.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Wednesday, October 24th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi
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• A very large region will be affected by very strong winds.
• Reflecting its tropical beginnings, very heavy rainfall will occur with the storm.
• The storm will be slow moving. This worsens the impact for coastal flooding as it will affect multiple high tide cycles. This worsens the potential for heavy rainfall inland and increases the risk of major river flooding.
• The area affected will be determined by the track of the storm. There is still considerable uncertainty about the track of the storm, but our region is clearly at risk.Executive Summary
• Potential for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region early next week. • This storm will be associated with what is currently Tropical Storm Sandy. This storm system will bring multiple potential threats to the region.
• Strong damaging wind gusts, extremely heavy rainfall, major inland flooding and major coastal flooding are all possible with the storm. • The track of the storm will determine the area which is impacted; there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track this far in advance of the event.
• Next briefing package will be issued on Wednesday, October 24th. • Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi
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My own forecast based on weather history is as follows. We have a negative NAO, which historically frequently brings in a coastal storm. This set up produces a blocking high pressure system to our north. As the storm comes up from the south it can stall south of Long Island and then may move in a circular pattern for a time. The storm wants to move out to sea as storms normally do, but because of the blocking, and a negatively tilted trough trying to capture it, , the cyclone gets stuck. The storm intensifies but eventually, slowly moves out. We get a long duration Nor'easter. Plenty of wind rain and if cold enough, snow. Coastal areas get battered by wind and tides. So far, that looks to me to be the most likely outcome. The storm will coincide with lunar high tides, making coastal flooding worse. So far , a strong storm, not an extreme one, appears to be most likely btween Sunday and Tuesday. If the storm goes to extreme expect only one days' warning, if that happens. A windy rainy mess begins on this weekend , as I see it.
On the other hand, look at this forecast for the Sunday afternoon football games. >
I would cancel any cruise ship plans anywhere on the East Coast this weekend! If this verifies. For such a storm to occur, according to Steve D. at NY,NJ,PA Weather.com, it must phase perfectly Saturday night. Only a 6 hour change will be the difference for such an extreme storm.
Tropical Storm Sandy: East Coast Nightmare or Miss
Tropical Storm Sandy: East Coast Nightmare or Miss
Would you believe 4 feet of snow in State College, PA? Nah! Never!
Seriously the Euro shows a weird storm movement and it is hard to believe. If it does verify it would have a huge impact on coastal areas. We can only watch the models day by day. It is impossible to make a forecast on something so unusual. It is becoming more likely though that Sunday to Tuesday next week will be rainy and windy. But will it be extraordinary as the Euro portrays? Nobody knows.
The storm track is from south of Long Island to the WEST toward Lake Erie. Yes, backwards!!!! So, nobody wants to accept it as the actual path it will take.
(click on the orange words to go directly to Accuweather. The black words are my own. )
Would you believe 4 feet of snow in State College, PA? Nah! Never!
Seriously the Euro shows a weird storm movement and it is hard to believe. If it does verify it would have a huge impact on coastal areas. We can only watch the models day by day. It is impossible to make a forecast on something so unusual. It is becoming more likely though that Sunday to Tuesday next week will be rainy and windy. But will it be extraordinary as the Euro portrays? Nobody knows.
The storm track is from south of Long Island to the WEST toward Lake Erie. Yes, backwards!!!! So, nobody wants to accept it as the actual path it will take.
(click on the orange words to go directly to Accuweather. The black words are my own. )
Monday, October 22, 2012
EXTRA! The afternoon Euro run came in minutes ago, and it has a huge storm taking a bead on the Boston area. NJ Coast would still be impacted but not as bad. This will keep changing back and forth, up and down for a couple of more days.
At this early time in watching the storm, all we can say is that anywhere from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod could be the location for the storm to hit land. Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New york and New England will have to watch this one. Too early to call now.
DID YOU KNOW?
The weather event of the year may be here by next weekend, late. The storm, to be called Sandy, has formed this Monday morning. Now will it hit us with tropical storm winds and ,far inland, snow?
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Friday, October 19, 2012
Weatherunderground reports that this winter is just a big question mark as far as what to expect. The El Nino that was expected has faded out and if this continues the prospects for a snowy winter may also. Never before, has an El Nino started during the summer and then faded to neutral in the autumn.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Friday, October 12, 2012
Blizz92 at Weatherunderground, winter forecast due soon.
This young forecaster wants another 2 weeks to make his winter forecast. Right now though, it looks like the early winter will be near normal in temperature and probably somewhat above normal snowfall. Early November could bring the first snow threat to interior areas.
Of concern is the possibility of an Alaskan vortex forming, which is a snow killer for the East Coast. Wxrisk also expressed this view. Stay tuned.
Of concern is the possibility of an Alaskan vortex forming, which is a snow killer for the East Coast. Wxrisk also expressed this view. Stay tuned.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
FREEZE WATCH, FRIDAY / SATURDAY.
... Freeze watch in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a freeze watch...
which is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning.
* Locations... coastal sections of southern Connecticut... Rockland
and northern Westchester counties in New York... and portions of
interior northeast New Jersey.
* Hazards... sub-freezing temperatures.
* Temperatures... mostly upper 20s to lower 30s.
* Timing... after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning.
* Impacts... temperatures below freezing could kill crops and
sensitive vegetation.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A freeze watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.
morning...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a freeze watch...
which is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning.
* Locations... coastal sections of southern Connecticut... Rockland
and northern Westchester counties in New York... and portions of
interior northeast New Jersey.
* Hazards... sub-freezing temperatures.
* Temperatures... mostly upper 20s to lower 30s.
* Timing... after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning.
* Impacts... temperatures below freezing could kill crops and
sensitive vegetation.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A freeze watch means below freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Saturday, October 6, 2012
LONG RANGE OUTL@@K! The next ten days will be chilly. A milding trend will likely occur from mid-month until near the end of the month. Late October will turn chilly again as will early November. The winter appears likely to be a snowy one. This is my best estimate from Accuweather and Wxrisk discussions as well as the NWS.
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Coldest weather so far will arrive Sunday and Monday.
NIH .gov graphic.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Monday, September 17, 2012
Urban Flooding, Delays for I-81, I-95 Tuesday
Urban Flooding, Delays for I-81, I-95 Tuesday
The Euro was right, flooding rains tomorrow in many areas.
The Euro was right, flooding rains tomorrow in many areas.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Forecast for Monday. Sept. 17 th. a zero percent chance of rain for the 99% in Occupy Wall Street. NYC!
Occupy Wall Street has had many successes but building a sustainable mass movement has eluded them. They are not well organized, shun leadership, abhor political involvement and their general assemblies are impressive but very slow and cumbersome. Despite that they have been an inspiration for me. The plutocracy that governs us must be neutralized, if we are to remain a free society with government of the people, by the people, and for the people.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
September 17th. One year later.
Rise like Lions after slumber
In unvanquishable number,
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you -
Ye are many - they are few.
- Percy Bysshe Shelley
In unvanquishable number,
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you -
Ye are many - they are few.
- Percy Bysshe Shelley
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