Rainfall totals

   Groton Airport 1.37 810 PM 11/27 ASOS

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
   Ramsey 3.68 400 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Allendale 3.28 300 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Park Ridge 3.25 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   Ridgewood 3.15 732 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Rivervale 3.15 623 PM 11/27 public
   Oakland 2.84 733 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Teterboro 2.68 700 PM 11/27 ASOS
   Lyndhurst 2.50 355 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Westwood 2.46 323 PM 11/27 mesonet

... Essex County...
   Cedar Grove 3.77 220 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Roseland 3.13 105 PM 11/27 public
   Essex Fells 2.96 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   1 se Cedar Grove 2.78 300 PM 11/27 mesonet
   1 NW Nutley 2.63 414 PM 11/27 mesonet
   1 W North Caldwell 2.54 400 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Newark Airport 2.48 700 PM 11/27 ASOS

... Hudson County...
   Harrison 3.09 400 PM 11/27 Skywarn spotter
   Kearny 2.95 500 PM 11/27 public

... Passaic County...
   Little Falls 3.35 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   1 WNW West Paterson 3.30 301 PM 11/27 mesonet
   Wayne 3.28 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   Ringwood 2.76 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge
   West Milford 2.64 330 PM 11/27 nepp gauge 

Pre Thanksgiving storm is shaping up, but models differ.

Coastal New Jersey will undoubtedly see a rain event but from Sussex County and into the Poconos there seems to be substantial snow ahead.

Sunday afternoon should see the different models come into agreement.  Right now it is anything from out to sea to a warm rain.

From wxrisk.com, the Euro precip totals.  Very wet and far enough west, white. Much of NJ gets 3 inches of rain.

Meanwhile the GFS is out to sea.

I think we will see at least an inch of rain, with far NW New Jersey getting several inches of snow, with elevation.  The Poconos and Catskills will get a major snow.

With only 2 weeks left to go, this is the driest autumn on record.

First winter forecasts come in and they fall into 2 camps.

The weather service and others see a winter with the cold focused over the center of the country, which would give the east a variable winter with near normal temps and not very much snow.

The others see a blockbuster winter on the way.

The issue is whether there is a developing area of warm water in the western Pacific Ocean or not.  And weather the eastern end will remain on the cool side.

Signs of developments are good but until they become established fact, the variable winter camp has the best odds of proving to be correct.  Keep in mind that we have had drought conditions since the end of September and this may persist into the winter as well.