Sun still not waking up. Cold, snowy winters may be in our future.

We just had an unusually low sunspot minimum, and as of now the sun has barely woken up.  This was predicted by a team of Russian scientists, who specialize in studying the sunspot cycles. 


 If this trend continues, the low sunspot activity helps to set up a blocking high pressure near Greenland.  This Greenland block will send arctic air masses toward the eastern US, as has happened in December 2010.


  The low sunspot activity encourages cosmic rays to crash through our atmosphere and this added radiation produces water drop nuclei, which aid in cloud formation. Extra clouds cool the high latitudes, resulting in a Greenland block, with cold and snowy conditions on the east coast.


Last winters' snowmaggedon could be the start of a trend around here.


Locally, January 7th is a day to watch.  The middle of January looks quite cold.  So what else is new?


2963

Mild New Years Weekend with tranquil weather and some rain. Next weekend could be very wintry again though.

A mild then rainy New Years weekend, followed by a return to colder weather.

A threat for more snow will reappear from January 6 to 10th, but,  just a regular old snowstorm most likely.

There is much talk about most of the winter being cold and snowy due to a strongly negative NAO.  A blocking high pressure near Greenland, which forces cold air south toward the northeast US, will be responsible for the wintry weather pattern.

2929

Storm totals. New Years Eve looks milder and tranquil, followed by rain.

Elizabeth  31.8", Lincoln Park 29", Lyndhurst 29", Newark 24".


New Years Eve. partly cloudy, highs in low 40's
New years Day, partly cloudy 40's
Sunday, rain, mild then return to cold weather.


Next snow Jan. 7

2886

NY,NJ,CONN, Metro in the bullseye for heavy snow and high winds.

*9:00 am steady snow in much of south Jersey and moving north.
10:00 am- moderate to heavy snow south Jersey , moving north.
As much as 2 feet of snow possible in some areas
11:30 am - Light flurries, Bergen Co., roads snow covered below Rte. 78.  Holland tunnel approach snow covered.
* steady heavier snow due by 2 pm, 12 to 18" expected, 40 to 50 mph wind gusts.  Many flights cancelled.
** 1,000 flights cancelled at area airports.  Local forecaster predicts 18 to 24" totals for much of NJ.
* 2 pm update: some forecasters predict 18" to 30 " totals, 35 to 55 mph winds, multiple accidents I-78, Newark area roadways.  Temps running 5 to 10 degrees colder than predictions, hence, higher snow totals,  thunderstorms appearing near Jersey shore, if you experience thunder you are in the most intense snow band.
* Blizzard warnings expanded to Hudson Valley, Conn. etc.  High winds big factor in storm.
* Heavy snow bands now moving in . Brick Twp. Heavy snow.  All will now move toward NYC metro area and beyond.
*** Storm expected to stall on NJ coast for 6 hours.  Snow amounts will increase rapidly during that time.***
* snow will continue until 8 am tomorrow.
* multiple accidents rte. 287.
* heavy snow bands now coming off the ocean , moving inland to north and west.  Snow will greatly intensify in the next couple of hours.
** bands are already in NYC metro extending down along Jersey shore, all moving from SE to NW.**
* Garden S. P. multiple accidents, 20 mph traffic.*
Snow intensity increasing in Bergen/ Passaic Co's.
**** Upton, NY, NWS office- has increased snow totals to 20" for a wide area.***
* winds to become strong and gusty around nightfall*
4:33 pm- very heavy snow band from Sandy Hook to Atlantic City,
Probably 2 or 3 inches per hour.

SNOW to begin in northern NJ, around noon.
High winds likely especially near the coast.
Storm moving closer to coast and may be stronger than forecast.
Storm is a triple phase storm making it ideal as a snowmaker.
Metro region to experience blizzard conditions, with the worst weather, after nightfall.
6:45 am: snowing aloft  now over parts of NJ,PA
7 am: very light snow,Cape May, NJ.
Banding during the storm, determines who gets the most snow. Banding is most likely from Burlington Co.up through Bergen Co.
*Moderate snow reported extreme southern NJ.
*** Snow breaking out in southeast NJ 7:50 am.***
Thundersnow possible later.
8 am- Atlantic City: light snow. Storm is now strengthening.
8:30 am snow moving up the NJ coast now, quickly.
** The storm may stall, just off NJ coast , for several hours, this makes NJ, ground zero, if that happens.**
9:00 Heaviest snow from Philadelphia, through south Jersey to Conn.  Philadelphia Eagles game will be in terrible weather.
9:05 am- Millville and A/C both reporting light snow.
* Heavy snow with winds gusting to 50mph expected in Nj and NY metro later today and tonight. Road closures likely.
Snow flurries as far south as the Florida pan handle.
Temps in the low 20's, lower than forecasts of 30 or above.
2792

BLIZZARD WARNING from Sunday to Monday!

... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 am Sunday to 6 PM EST
Monday...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning... which is in effect from 6 am Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.
The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... northeast New Jersey... New York City and its
immediate suburbs... Long Island... and coastal and interior
southeast Connecticut.

* Hazards... heavy snow and strong winds... with considerable
blowing and drifting of snow and near zero visibility at times.

* Accumulations... 11 to 16 inches... with locally higher amounts
possible in heavier snow bands whose exact location is still too
early to determine. Snow may mix with or change to rain and
sleet at the height of the storm late Sunday night across
eastern Long Island... and possibly across coastal southeast
Connecticut... which could hold down amounts there... but only
after significant accumulations have already taken place.

* Impacts... extremely dangerous travel conditions developing due
to significant snow accumulations... and strong winds causing
considerable blowing and drifting of snow. Visibilities will be
near zero at times... with whiteout conditions expected. Strong
winds may also down some power lines... tree limbs... and
Christmas decorations.

* Timing... light snow will likely begin during Sunday
morning... then become heavy at times from late Sunday afternoon
into much of Sunday night. Light snows will likely linger into
Monday morning and possibly into Monday afternoon.

* Winds... .during the height of the storm Sunday night... north
winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts 40 to 55
mph... highest across central and eastern Long Island.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong
winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.

Major winter storm will impact NJ Sunday night through Monday morning.

Snow develops by Sunday afternoon, becomes heavy snow Sunday night.  Travel disruptions seem likely. Windy, blowing and drifting snow overnight.

Monday early snow tapering off to snow showers, windy.

CAUTION: The forecasting of this complex and powerful storm has been extremely erratic.  Further changes, up or down , may occur.

IF, the GFS is right, all of NJ may get 1 to 2 feet. High winds near the coast expected.

2718

OMG! Can it be? SNOWMAGEDDON! Passaic CO. 16"?

I have to get some sleep!

Meteorologist states that he has never seen such chaos and then a complete turn around, in 35 years of work.

Late night computer runs showing a snowstorm to be looked at closely Christmas morning.

All bets are off, we have to look at this!  Snow more likely once again.

On again off again Finnegan. Where do we stand?

Friday lunchtime models leaning toward 6 " snow.  ?????? Now I don't think we may know until Saturday.


Weather Service officials announce that the computer models were fed erroneous data.  Therefore, the weather forecasts based on these computer runs, are also in error, quite possibly


The forecast data is corrupted and all the forecasts are uncertain.  The disturbances that could form the snowstorm Sunday, appear stronger than forecasted.  There is now a moderate chance for substantial snow Sun. & Mon. 


Belgium gets first white Christmas since 1964.  6 to 24 inches.


2681

A revolting development: late phasing carries the storm OTS.

There can be no avoiding it.  The Euro model just keeps grinding out "Snowmageddon Redux" again and again.  All that needs to be done, is to figure out how bad it will be.


Everything will be fine through Christmas day.  Sunday and Monday will be snowy .


A tough call for the forecasters because the storm must come together on Christmas night.  Then certainty sets in.


Yes, snow Sunday ( late ) and Monday!


Uh, but only snow showers. We still have a chance but, it is a lot slimmer than this morning.
2601

Trend seems to be more snow not less. The EURO model has the goods on this one.

Here is a worst case scenario, if you want to know.  Heavy snow from Norfolk to Allentown, Poughkeepsie, NYC, Long Island.  18" + snow.  60 to 70 mph winds at Jersey shore. Coastal flooding.  All travel shut down. Power outages.

Scary huh?  It could happen if it all pans out a la Euro.  The Euro computer is predicting that, the others are not.

Chinese restaurant Weather Forecasting.

Since the forecast models are predicting everything from sunny skies to an all out blizzard for Sunday to Tuesday, you may as well make your own forecast.


Choose one (1) from each group to make a forecast of your own.


Day: Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday


Skies  sunny  partly cloudy  mostly sunny cloudy


Temps.  cold  very cold


Wind speed 0-5,  5-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-50 mph.


Weather fair, trace snow, light snow, moderate snow, heavy snow, blizzard.


Total accumulation  0,1-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, 24-30 inches


Snow probability 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%


Then check your fortune cookie!


I can tell you that I have seen all of the above mentioned in various forecast dicussions.


My own take:


Snow begins Sunday, ends Monday, 3-6 inches likely, 6 to 12 inches or even more, possible.


Please do not be surprised if by tomorrow night you begin to hear absolutely hair raising forecasts.






2539

See that swirl of clouds approaching just to the left of southern California?

ORANGE UPDATE BELOW.

That is the late weekend storm.  Now, where is it going to go?

The map above is yesterdays' Euro, which caused much excitement. See that giant cinnamon bun next to NJ?

If, if, this proves out, it would produce very heavy snow combined with strong winds.  Christmas night is key, if the storm phases properly, our weather will be very wintry Monday and maybe even Tuesday as well.  If it does not phase we get little if any snow.  Kind of like an Alfred Hitchcock movie.

The NWS office in Binghamton, NY gives a 70% chance for snow Monday!  10 am discussion.

ECMWF predicts storm measured in feet not inches, other models differ.  Nj at ground zero.

photo:  Penn. State Univ. E wall

FORECAST BELOW.

Slow ball snowball coming our way? Still ?

Looking at the bottom line first, no snow Christmas Eve. nor  Christmas day.  Christmas night or the next day, Sunday, is when things may start to change. 

The Euro model shows a mighty storm coming up the coast but slower and later than forecast before.   But, some of the other models are swinging it out to sea.  We must be impressed by the Euro being so consistent on the track and intensity.

Once again, we need to wait to see if the models come in to agreement  today or tomorrow...maybe even later than that.

So far, here is the "uncertain outlook":


12/ 24 - partly cloudy, cold, breezy
12/ 25-  becoming cloudy, cold, breezy, slight chance of snow late
12/ 26- snow overspreading the region, cold, breezy, snow may become heavy late.
12/ 27- snow ( or, not!)


A tentative set of forecasts are being given.  Out to sea remains a possibility, also.


I still think a large storm will occur but, doubts are there.


By tomorrow, we should begin to get a much clearer picture.  The storm that will affect us is only now marching into California.


2513

Babe Ruth blizzard is coming up to bat. Will it be a home run or a swing and a miss? It could not look better......so far.

Local forecaster looks toward a 3 day Nor'easter.  Certainly not set in stone at this early point in time.  See NYNJPA Weather.com, Steve D.

The story won't be known until Wednesday late or Thursday.  It does get exciting to imagine these computer runs actually becoming  a reality. A nail biter once again.

The plot thickens. It looks like a perfect set up, so far.

Although it is not a done deal, here we go.


3 out of 4 forecast models, show a biggie snow storm  for Christmas weekend.  


 Euro goes over to epic snow storm.  The Euro. is the most reliable winter storm model. Unusual in the consistent runs calling for snow.  12 inch plus totals are in reach.


The 26th, Sunday, seems to be the day to watch now.


12/24  Partly cloudy, cold
12/25  Cloudy, snow develops late. Cold.
12/26  Heavy snow,cold,windy.
12/27  Snow and Snow showers then, clearing. Tuesday:windy,cold.


That is the best estimate for now.  Subject to change, of course. ( i.e. it goes out to sea )  I will let you know when it reaches certainty status.


The record setting rain and snow in California will play a role in our weather.  Look at Siberia -71 below zero today.


I am loving this.  A beautiful total lunar eclipse is visible in the northwestern sky,  with bright stars and a cold north wind blowing through the trees. The one in 1638 was better maybe.


12Z Euro came in at 2 pm.  It is all out blizzard time......so far!

from Penn. State U.  E wall.

2440

Battle of the computer models.

Plan A:  a storm moves in from the west and leaves 3 to 6 inches of snow.


Plan B: a storm forms in the Gulf states and comes up the coast.  If it is near shore we get a foot of snow...or, it goes out to sea.


The timing now favors Sunday rather than Saturday.


Wait and see what it looks like on the Wednesday forecast or later.


Christmas Eve.: partly cloudy,cold


Christmas Day: snow developing , late


12/ 26: Snow.


New Years early outlook: snow changing to rain

2420

"Alaska Clipper" may slam NJ this weekend...yes, probably. Our best shot so far, this season. A real White Christmas?

I gave the storm that name, I think it fits.  Things look good because this is a vigorous system, traveling a more northerly path, ;and the forecast model runs have had less wobble and waffling than is usually the case.  The storm will enter the USA near San Francisco.  If this holds together until Wednesday, then we can expect a snowy Christmas Weekend.

As is usual, there are a number of ways for the expected storm to unravel, so getting to the Wednesday afternoon forecast is critical.  Think snow.

Monday 7 am update:
Euro model shows widespread 12 inch + snowstorm this weekend. May begin Christmas Eve.
Monday noon:  Still on track but some wobble in some models.  Waiting for 2 pm Euro.
12 Z Euro shows strong coastal storm but later in the weekend
3 pm:
We have to wait until Wed. or Thurs. to figure this one out.  3 to 6 inch snow is the most likely outcome so far.  A complete miss is unlikely as is a big blizzard.

2378

Snowy weather for Christmas weekend growing more likely.

As of Sunday night most forecasters favor a snowy Christmas weather forecast.  A major Northeast coastal storm could bring heavy snow, no rain.  Still 5 or 6 days to go but it looks real good this time.  Much more consistent than the last storm which is now snowing all over the tuna in the Atlantic Ocean tonight, and a little on Long Island, as well.


How much?  3 to 6 inches most likely, 12 inches possible. Timing looks like anywhere from Friday night to Monday morning.  Saturday is in the bullseye.

2366

Ditto, see below. The White Christmas is still there. Keep hoping.

3 computer forecast models show a snowstorm for the Dec. 25 / 26 time period. Of course there is no agreement on the timing or the track.  Much too early, to make a weather forecast that you can count on.


According to Henry M. at Accuweather.com, the storm will enter the USA near San Fransisco, which means it will exit near Delaware, giving the big cities snow for Christmas.


Preliminary timing estimate is that snow begins early Christmas day and the height of the storm is Christmas night.


Early estimate Philadelphia, 1 to 2 feet of snow in the forecast. That would be a worst case scenario.  3 to 6 inches is more likely.


A major snowstorm missed us today by a matter of miles, as the radar has been showing plenty of snow, over the ocean.  This storm entered the USA in south California, and thus exited well to our south.


Sunday update 12:30 pm-  Model runs still shows the snowstorm!  12Z Euro run shows vigorous coastal snowstorm.


  New Years Day : milder, rainy.




2323

White Christmas storm still on the map, only 7 days away. Maybe your wish will come true.

Christmas weather forecasts are way too early, but this is the 2nd. day that a snowstorm shows up on the GFS and the Euro forecast models.


6 to 12 inch variety storm.  Maybe. 


 3 inches north, 6 inches south, more likely. But, don't count on it.


When can you believe the forecast?  Wednesday afternoon about 4 pm.  Then, get your snow blower gassed up, not before.


WE CAN COUNT ON ONE THING: 6 Shopping days left.

GFS forecast model, weather map for Christmas night.


Siberia update: -59 below zero!




2274

Cheer up ! The long range calls for snow Christmas day and the day after.

A series of clipper type storms,  will pass through the next 2 weeks and there is a good chance for a moderate snowfall,  from one of them.  Otherwise continued cold and dry.

Major snowstorm will impact....Where? ( NJ is on the short list )

5 pm update:


Forget about it, little or no snow. Winter BEGINS next week.
                                                                                                       




12:30 UPDATE: Snowy prospects dwindle,  but not yet eliminated.


Uncertainty reigns supreme on this storm.  Trends indicate a lesser amount of snow for northern NJ.


Not much to do until the Saturday afternoon forecast comes out.  Until then, it looks like light snow Sunday,  if that.


                                                                                        


Doubts remain on the weekend storm and there is a good chance that they will be removed by this afternoon's forecasts.  Certainly a major storm will strike but where?  Long Island and New England are the most likely targets, but, NJ is not far behind.


I suspect that NJ will see a substantial snow on Sunday, if not a blizzard.


This mornings' forecasts are subject to change, wait until this afternoon.




2220

10 pm update.


Snow is likely Sunday, no doubt about that, but then we ask , how much snow?


There is a good deal of uncertainty on the track of the storm for NJ.  Friday may resolve the differing tracks from the various forecast models.  Eastern most NJ, Long Island and New England are the most likely  locales for heavy snow.


But all of NJ could see a major impact, time will tell. The models are trending the storm closer to the coast, which would mean, more snow.


And, we have a shot at more snow a little later next week.


From what I have been reading , a major snow for all of NJ, is likely but not certain, as yet.  Get ready. Someone is getting blasted by this one.


Whatever you do, don't drive to Boston this weekend! You may not get back until Wednesday.




2202

UH OH! Here comes a storm on Sunday? Yes Virginia, there is a Santa.

Afternoon update:  Euro model shows major weekend storm! Wild !  So many different views on the snowstorm.  Stay tuned, things may be changing.


6 inches, to as much as 2 feet of snow,  cannot be ruled out! ( Steve D. at NY NJ PA Weather.com )


Models and forecasters differ widely on the predictions.


2:20 pm
5, five, computer models now show major winter storm.  They seem to agree on the outcome for the first time.


Western NJ may see much less snow, as you move closer to the coast, the snow totals will increase dramatically.


Storm may stall, prolonging snowfall into Monday.


Forecasting difficulties,  plus the anticipated rapid intensification,  means a clear picture may not emerge until Friday or even Saturday.   But there has been a definite , sudden shift to a snowier weekend forecast, than was seen even as recently as Thursday morning.


Eastern regions and New England most likely to bear the brunt of the snowstorm.  NYC and Long Island in the heavy snow zone. Immediate coast may see rain for a time.


Travel disruptions likely on Sunday.  Major snowstorm for Sunday/ Monday.


Snow to begin early Sunday and may persist into Monday night. 6 inches likely with 12 inches or more possible east of Rte. 287.


Snow day probability Monday better than 50%.


The storm may even retrograde back toward us after it has seemingly gone by.

2170

A better picture of what will happen this weekend.

10:56 am UPDATE


I have to go with snow likely on Sunday, with central and southern NJ getting the most snow.  The latest GFS brings the storm closer in toward us, hence snow is more likely now.  How much????


I think that we can discard the idea of a major snowstorm for northern NJ. Coastal and southern NJ could see several inches.  But, there will be snow in the air Sunday.


The various computer models have been inconsistent and it still continues that way.
                                                                                                             
Early morning Thursday update:


Right now, a near miss is the most likely outcome for Sun. Dec. 19th.  The coast would see some snow, and the interior areas little if any.


 Later today, around lunchtime, there should be a more certain outlook on what will happen Sunday.  Forecast models are all over the board right now.


 Another, smaller storm may occur a couple days later.  If at first, you don't succeed, try, try, again.


Snow day probability for Monday: 50% ( revised Thursday afternoon )


2155

One thing is sure, no big warm up in sight, just not as cold by Friday.

Not until Thursday afternoon, will there be an accurate picture of what will happen on Sunday, with a possible snowstorm developing at that time.  We will stay cold but, it will not be as cold Friday and Saturday.  Today, Wednesday,  should be the last windy and very cold day.

5:00 pm update: 2 models show snow Sunday, if the others follow their lead, we are in snow business!  And, let us not forget, that the winter season has not begun yet.


Snow day prob. for Monday 20%


2085

Who knows where or when?

A snowstorm Dec. 20th is more likely now, but, will it be Baltimore or Bangor?


Adam thinks we have a shot at 10 inches plus Sunday/ Monday.


 A disturbance,  now over eastern Siberia, will play a key role.


Snow day Prob. for 12 / 20 is 20%




2052

Long Range Outlook: A beautiful snowstorm, apperars on the GFS model, today, for Dec. 20th, only a week away. Maybe this time it will happen for us in NJ.

The storm predicted at least 10 days in advance, did happen but Minn. and Wisc. got the snow.  Our turn will come eventually, given the current weather pattern.  Today will be mild and party sunny, enjoy.

 The Euro. model ( ECMWF ) shows very cold to cold weather for NJ from today through Jan. 9th , 2011.



2010

Long Range Outlook (hint,hint.)

Cold is the word for at least the next 10 days.  As for snow it is wait and see what may happen from the 12th to the 15th or shortly thereafter.  Too far ahead and too much variation in the computer model runs.  Snow showers may occur from time to time or even a sudden short burst of snow.

Snow day probability less than 2% ( so far )


Saturday night update:

  Above : Awesome, but still imaginary blizzard, so far, for Dec. 13th.  Hooray !


On Nov. 27th I wrote: " the snows will miss us at first, but we have a chance for a snow about Dec. 12th"  I just checked it myself.

UK and Europe have worst winter blast in many years. Are we next?

Could this be our mid-December snowstorm?

Snow and cold has shut down travel in parts of Europe and since very often , we experience weather similar to theirs, we may be in for a spell of equally wintry weather.


Poland: eight men freeze to death in near zero temperatures. Yak sie masz?


Great Britain: air travel shut down or delayed.  The same in Switzerland and Germany.  Time for saurbratten, potato pancakes, red cabbage and hot mulled wine.


We will turn sharply colder tonight and the cold will remain through next week.  A chance of light snow this weekend but most likely from central NJ and south from there.


Our next snow chance still looks like Dec. 12th.  Plenty of cold on the long range maps, so far.


Skiers in the Western states are enjoying ample early snows.