Tuesday, October 23, 2012

My own forecast based on weather history is as follows. We have a negative NAO, which historically frequently brings in a coastal storm. This set up produces a blocking high pressure system to our north. As the storm comes up from the south it can stall south of Long Island and then may move in a circular pattern for a time. The storm wants to move out to sea as storms normally do, but because of the blocking, and a negatively tilted trough trying to capture it, , the cyclone gets stuck. The storm intensifies but eventually, slowly moves out. We get a long duration Nor'easter. Plenty of wind rain and if cold enough, snow. Coastal areas get battered by wind and tides. So far, that looks to me to be the most likely outcome. The storm will coincide with lunar high tides, making coastal flooding worse. So far , a strong storm, not an extreme one, appears to be most likely btween Sunday and Tuesday. If the storm goes to extreme expect only one days' warning, if that happens. A windy rainy mess begins on this weekend , as I see it.

On the other hand, look at this forecast for the Sunday afternoon football games. >

I would cancel any cruise ship plans anywhere on the East Coast this weekend!  If this verifies.  For such a storm to occur, according to Steve D. at NY,NJ,PA Weather.com, it must phase perfectly Saturday night.  Only a 6 hour change will be the difference for such an extreme storm.

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