Tuesday, January 18, 2011

"Homer, the weatherman says it is going to snow again Friday."

Photo above: White Cat II by Ace of Finland photography.

With several models agreeing on snow Friday, only the details need to be worked out.  A moderate amount of snow seems likely, so far.  Mets. are waiting for the pm Euro to come in by around 2 pm this afternoon, to see if it now agrees with several other models.

  • Tuesday afternoon thoughts.
  • With forecasts all over the board, once again, we have a range of expectations for Friday.

  • Nothing, 1" to 2", 2" to 4", 6" to 12", and 1' to 2'. *** My best guess is still 4" to 8" for north Jersey. ***

  • Since we are in such a volatile weather pattern, I would not trust a forecast more than 24 to 36 hours in advance.  Remember, there was no consensus on the December "Boxing Day Blizzard", until Christmas Day! ( and not even then, really)

  • This storm is yet another "Miller B" type storm.  A disturbance comes from the Plains States, as it gets near the coast, a new storm forms at the ocean front. There is a merger between the original disturbance and another one. If the new storm forms south of NJ, we get a major snowfall.  Too far south, it may go out to sea.  Too far north and Long Island and New England get the big snows.
  • Anything could happen, but the chances of 12" or more are remote, in my humble opinion. The storm will be followed by Arctic air for the weekend.

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